Ke'Bryan Hayes' recovery carries massive stakes as Reds stare down painful reality

The Cincinnati Reds has knowledge of Ke'Bryan Hayes' chronic back issues before last summer's trade with the Pittsburgh Pirates, and yet they made the move anyway. Now the two-time Gold Glove Award-winner is on the injured list with a lumbar bulging disc, and it sounds like he won't be back on the field anytime soon.

There's certainly some positives that can be taken away from Hayes' trip to the IL. Though no fan wants to see a player miss time due to injury, Hayes was struggled mightily at the plate and owned a meager .142/.195/.225 slash line with a 12 wRC+ through 44 games this season.

Cincinnati reporter Charlie Goldsmith spoke with Reds manager Terry Francona after Hayes' placement on the IL, and it sounds as if the infielder will be out of action for quite some time.

"We’re going to get him out to Arizona. We want to get this going in the right direction so we can ask him to work and he doesn’t have to worry about getting hurt or setting himself back," Francona told Goldsmith.

Ke'Bryan Hayes' recovery is critical to his Reds' future

Some Reds fans will see Hayes' trip to the IL as a sneaky way to keep him on the roster without dragging the team down. That's a somewhat cynical, albeit possible, perspective. Regardless, if Hayes doesn't make some type of meaningful impact upon his return to the lineup, he could be let go before the 2026 season comes to a close.

Frankly, Hayes' contract is the only thing saving him from a DFA at the moment. He's owed a little less than $30 million over the next three-and-a-half years with base salaries of $7 million (2026), $7 million (2027), $8 million (2028), and $8 million (2029).

While the Reds haven't been shy about cutting bait with former free-agent flops like Mike Moustakas, Shogo Akiyama, and Jeimer Candelario, that's a lot of money to pay someone not to play for your organization. Candelario's release last summer cost Cincinnati $22.5 million, eclipsing the $22 million they owed Moustakas after letting him go in 2023.

Dumping Hayes before the start of next season would set a new record ($23 million), and that's not the type of achievement that he or the organization would be proud of. But the Reds have options at third base beyond Hayes, and if he fails to find some sort of groove offensively, Cincinnati may be forced to admit yet another massive mistake.

The current plan is for Sal Stewart and Eugenio Suárez to split time at third base, and should the need arise, top prospect Edwin Arroyo is patiently waiting his turn at Triple-A Louisville. Hayes is far from irreplaceable, and while this stint on the IL is designed to help him get healthy and get his swing right, the roster might look vastly different when he finally returns from his time in Arizona.

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