Guardians offer Reds a stark reminder that building a contender is never easy

From the outside looking in, it's easy to see the Cleveland Guardians' recent string of success and think to yourself, "Why can't my favorite team do that?" It's a sentiment that many Cincinnati Reds fans have felt over the years, especially having watched the Guardians make to the American League Championship Series two of the past three seasons.

Cleveland was bounced from the playoffs on Monday night after losing Game 6 of the ALCS to the Tampa Bay Rays, and it'll be back to the drawing board for Guardians president Chris Antonetti and the front office.

But their postseason run this October can hardly be called a failure. Moreover, given Cleveland's sustained stretch of winning over the last decade — including seven trips to the playoffs — one can assume that the Guardians will be back in the thick of the postseason at this time next season.

But that's not to say that Cleveland has everything figured out. Sure, they've managed to navigate having the lowest payroll in the sport and turn themselves into a consistent winner, but Antonetti has been far from flawless. In fact, some of the Guardians' biggest mistakes came back to haunt them during the ALCS against the Rays.

Guardians just showed the Reds that even smart front offices get it wrong

Did you know that Junior Caminero, whose seventh-inning home run padded the Rays' lead, was at one time a member of the Guardians' organization? Yandy Diaz, who muscled a two-run homer over the fence in the eighth inning of Game 6 to squelch any thought of a Guardians' comeback, made his Major League debut with Cleveland in 2017.

Then there's Jake Bauers, the Milwaukee Brewers' slugger who earned NLCS MVP honors last week. He began his big-league career with the Rays before being traded to the Guardians — a three-team deal that actually brought Diaz to Tampa Bay — in 2018.

But what does this mean for the Reds? Simply put — building a contender is not easy. Sometimes it takes tremendous research, player development, and scouting, while other times it's nothing more than good fortune.

None of this is to suggest that the Reds' leadership is above reproach. (We've covered management's shortcomings ad nauseam.) But it illustrates that even the best-run organizations in baseball make mistakes — sometimes big ones — that can change the landscape of an entire organization.

If the Guardians had known that Caminero (who was just 18 years old when he was traded) would reach this level of stardom, they would've never traded him to the Rays for Tobias Myers; a right-handed reliever who posted a 5.53 ERA with the New York Mets this season.

None of these GMs are able to predict the future, and no one makes deal (other than those that cut costs) with the notion that they're going to be on the losing end of a trade. It's no different than the manager who makes a pitching change. Had he known that the reliever he called upon was going to walk two batters and eventually give up four earned runs, do you honestly think he would've made the change?

The difference between the Reds' front office and the Guardians' braintrust, however, boils down to track record. Despite their missteps, Cleveland's front office has been able to overcome even some of their worst moves and put a winning team on the field. Nick Krall and Co. don't have the benefit of the doubt — rightly so — which makes their shortcomings more unforgivable.

Cleveland's extended streak of success has bought Antonetti a get-out-jail-free card. Krall doesn't have that luxury, and the Reds' success or failure in 2027 could decide his future with the organization.

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