Former Reds pitcher's deal with Mets makes Nick Martinez QO decision look even better

The Cincinnati Reds' 2025 starting rotation got a shot in the arm just before the Thanksgiving holiday. The Reds secured Brady Singer from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for second baseman Jonathan India and outfielder Joey Wiemer. But prior to that, Nick Martinez agreed to sign the qualifying offer the Reds extended to him just after the World Series. Doing so guaranteed Martinez a $21-million pay day and allowed Cincinnati to keep one of their most reliable arms from hitting the free agent market.

But after seeing the lucrative deal that Frankie Montas signed with the New York Mets on Sunday, Martinez may be kicking himself. Montas, who signed with the Reds as a free agent last offseason, inked a two-year, $34 million deal with the New York Mets. That's an average annual value of $17 million. Pitting Martinez's stats alongside Montas' reveals that Cincinnati may well have a bargain on their hands if the former NPB standout duplicates his 2024 success.

Frankie Montas' deal with Mets makes Nick Martinez QO decision look even better

The Reds signed both Montas and Martinez last winter, but the hope was that the former would be Cincinnati's top starting pitcher while the latter worked as both a starter and reliever. As it turns out, Montas was shipped to the Milwaukee Brewers at the MLB trade deadline in July and Martinez won NL Pitcher of the Month honors for his performance this past September.

Montas was 7-11 with a 4.84 ERA, 4.71 FIP, and was worth 1.4 fWAR. Martinez made 42 appearances in 2024, including 16 starts, and went 10-7 with a 3.10 ERA, 3.21 FIP. The right-hander was worth 3.5 fWAR according to FanGraphs. Knowing that the Reds essentially got a much better pitcher for a fraction of what Martinez would've received on the open market suggests that Nick Krall and Co. knew exactly what they were doing when they extended the QO to the veteran this offseason.

Of course, had Martinez declined the QO, draft compensation would have been attached to his signing on the free agent market. That surely would've affected his potential contract negotiations with other clubs, but after seeing the early returns, Martinez may have been able to secure a multiyear deal in the neighborhood of $20 million per season.

Many Reds fans felt as though Martinez's $21.05 million deal for 2025 was an overpay, but after seeing Montas' contract details with the Mets, it may well end up being a bargain.

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