Former Cubs pitcher Shota Imanaga has one glaring problem the Reds simply can't afford

There have been moments in Shota Imanaga's career when he has put up numbers commensurate with what a legitimate ace produces. That could seem enticing to the Cincinnati Reds, and stealing him away from the Chicago Cubs is just the icing on the cake.

The Reds don't necessarily need an ace. The holes in the rotation are in the back end, not the front. With that said, uneven years from both Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo have knocked their standing down some. Therefore, getting an arm who can slot into the top of the rotation alongside Chase Burns is something to truly consider.

The thing is, Imanaga isn't really an ace. The left-hander is a solid pitcher, a mid-rotation arm, and a guy capable of producing a mid-to-high three's ERA. That has value, but that value isn't the same to all teams in the marketplace.

Unfortunately, the value he presents to Cincinnati might not be the same as it is to some other clubs around the league because of one simple stat. Imanaga's problem is an elevated home run rate that would make the Reds signing him a grave mistake.

Shota Imanaga would be a long ball nightmare for the Reds playing in Great American Ball Park

Imanaga finished 2026 by making 32 starts, tossing 174⅓ innings, and recording a 3.77 ERA. With 8.98 K/9, he struck out just under one batter per inning and posted a razor-thin 5.2% walk rate. All of that is very enticing, but the 1.81 HR/9 he put up hangs over him like a black cloud. Imanaga also had a fly-ball-heavy approach to getting outs with just a 36.9% ground ball rate, and 16.1% of those fly balls cleared the fence. That was a career-worst mark.

Since Imanaga came stateside ahead of the 2024 season, he's recorded the fifth-highest HR/9 among qualified starters at 1.70. That's just a tick below former Reds hurler Zack Littell's 1.71 HR/9 over the same time period. Littell was decent for Cincinnati in the 10 starts he made for the club, posting a 4.39 ERA, but when he hit free agency last year, it was clear that he wasn't really a fit for this exact reason.

Littell's performance in a Reds uniform represents what would likely be the best-case scenario for Imanaga in the Queen City. It's tolerable, but it's less than ideal. And it could be so much worse.

Per Statcast park factors, Great American Ball Park is the fourth-most homer-friendly park in the league with a 113 rating over the last three seasons (100 is average). Wrigley Field ranks eighth, with a 106 mark. That's a significant difference.

At 33 years old, Imanaga isn't going to get a long-term deal, but the southpaw is going to get paid. Jim Bowden predicted a three-year, $69 million deal for him. MLB Trade Rumors is a bit less bullish, but a two-year, $40 million projection is still a hefty chunk of change.

The Reds could stretch themselves and make such a deal work. They would have to forgo upgrades at other areas like third base, catcher, and in the bullpen. That alone should give them pause. But when it's clear that park and pitcher clash, the return on that sizeable investment is non-existent. A cheaper option could give Cincinnati more, and once again, could lead to a whole that's greater than the sum of its parts.

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