ESPN's latest Cy Young list delivers massive insult to Reds

While Andrew Abbott has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year, he’s also been one of the most underrated players in the sport. Maybe it’s because it plays for a small market team that hasn’t made the postseason since the truncated 2020 season. Maybe it’s because he doesn’t have putaway velocity. Or maybe it’s because he started the season on the injured list.

But regardless of the reason, it’s becoming more and more clear that Abbott isn’t the conversation around some of the best pitchers in the sport. Don’t believe us? Just ask Vegas. 

This year, ESPN has been putting out a rolling tracker of the odds for each awards race in MLB, and, for the longest time, Abbott’s name was nowhere on the list. He only recently appeared on the list at 50-1 odds despite having the second best ERA (1.79) among pitchers who have thrown 80-plus innings this year. 

ESPN’s latest Cy Young list delivers massive insult to Reds starter Andrew Abbott

That sparkling ERA tells the story of Abbott’s year. He’s posted that in 80 ⅓ innings, and is in the 90th percentile in hard-hit rate along with the 82nd percentile in expected batting average and the 81st percentile in expected average. And he’s done all that despite averaging less than a strikeout per inning. 

Abbott's established a strong rapport with catcher Tyler Stephenson, who has helped him overhaul his arsenal. He’s throwing his fastball and sweeper less and his changeup and curveball more, both of which are doing a good job of keeping hitters off balance. 

Abbott has shoved since he allowed five earned runs in six innings against the Milwaukee Brewers at the start of June, and recorded the best start of his career earlier in the month when he tossed a three-hit shutout against the Cleveland Guardians. 

That still hasn’t helped him move up in the odds race for the National League Cy Young. Paul Skenes is the current favorite at -200, which makes sense since he technically leads the National League with a 2.12 ERA (Abbott hasn’t thrown enough innings to qualify) and is a household name.

The other pitchers ahead of him are Zack Wheeler, Logan Webb, Christopher Sanchez, Spencer Schwellenbach and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. All of whom are good pitchers, but it’s surprising to see all of them ahead of Abbott. Skenes, Wheeler, and Sanchez are the only National League pitchers who have been worth more bWAR than Abbott (3.3) this season. 

Some of Vegas’ hesitancy to shorten Abbott’s odds could come down to how the Reds have struggled as a team this year. Four of the last five National League Cy Young winners have been from playoff teams (Sandy Alcantara’s magical 2022 season is the lone exception), and the Reds are currently outside the playoff picture. Still, if Abbott continues to shut batters down, it might not matter.

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