Emilio Pagán's opt-out decision just forced Reds into an uncomfortable dilemma

According to MLB insider Francys Romero, Cincinnati Reds relief pitcher Emilio Pagán has declined his $10 million player-option for the 2027 season. This means that Pagán is now a free agent, and the Reds must decide whether or not it's worth the cost to re-sign him this offseason.

Romero is reporting that Pagán has a strong chance to land a multi-year deal on the open market, and given how well he pitched over the final two months of the season, that AAV is likely to be higher than the $10 million figure he signed last winter.

Pagán was a key member of the Reds' bullpen last season, and after he hit the IL with a hamstring injury in May, Cincinnati's relief corps collapsed. Pagán returned in July and posted a 1.88 ERA and 3.38 FIP with 19 saves over his final 30 appearances of the season.

Emilio Pagán opts out of his contract, and the Reds have to weight the risk of letting him walk

Deciding whether or not to reunite with Pagán will certainly test the front office's supposed new philosophy. After the 2026 season, the notion of "Why aren't we the Brewers" has become a popular saying around the city of Cincinnati. If the Reds truly want to be likely the Brewers, they'll avoid the steep price tag and let Pagán join a new organization this offseason.

That's not what fans throughout Reds Country want to hear, but now that he's a free agent, Pagán is likely to command at least a two-year, $25 million contract — and that's probably being a bit conservative. Former Reds' closer Raisel Iglesias signed a one-year deal with the Atlanta Braves worth $16 million last offseason, and another top-flight reliever, Robert Suarez, inked a three-year deal with a $15 million AAV.

Pagán is known to have an affinity for the city of Cincinnati and manager Terry Francona, so there's certainly the possibility that he could take a hometown discount of sorts. But he's not going to get cheated either.

If the Reds fail to re-sign Pagán, Tony Santillan is the heir apparent to be the team's closer in 2027. But Santillan struggled in 2026, and suffered a season-ending hip injury that required surgery. Tejay Antone's injury history make him quite the gamble if Cincinnati were to anoint him as the closer next season, and neither Chase Petty nor Connor Phillips have been consistent enough to take on such a responsibility.

Graham Ashcraft is arguably the Reds' best bet to take over in the ninth inning if Cincinnati decides not to re-sign Pagán. Ashcraft has stated a previous desire to take on such a role, and he has the type of mentality it takes to be on the mound with the game on the line.

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