Breaking down Reds starting rotation: Who’s a lock and who’s fighting for a spot?

We're about at the halfway point of spring training, and with the recent announcement that Hunter Greene is slated to be the Cincinnati Reds Opening Day starter, perhaps it's time to take a deeper look at the team's starting rotation.

Naming Greene the Reds Opening Day starter was the easiest decision Reds manager Terry Francona is going to make this spring. Greene is coming off a career-year, and asserted himself as the Reds ace. Francona also mentioned that the trio of Nick Lodolo, Nick Martinez, and Brady Singer would follow Greene once the 2025 season begins.

There's no shortage of candidates for the fifth and final spot in the Reds starting rotation, and injuries are certainly a factor. At the moment, it's probably a three-horse race, but one has yet to leave the stable.

Breaking down Reds starting rotation: Who’s a lock and who’s fighting for a spot?

If the first four are known, that final spot in the Reds starting rotation will come down to one of Graham Ashcraft, Carson Spiers, or Andrew Abbott. Rhett Lowder would have been part of the conversation, but an elbow injury has sidelined the former first-round pick, and he's yet to throw this spring.

Abbott has been on the mend as well. The left-hander had his 2024 campaign cut short due a shoulder injury, and that ailment has lingered throughout the offseason and into the first few weeks of spring camp. Abbott has thrown live BP, but has yet to appear in a Cactus League game. With less than three weeks left until Opening Day, his inclusion on the Reds 26-man roster is in doubt.

Projected 2025 Reds Opening Day starting rotation

• Hunter Greene, RHP
• Nick Lodolo, LHP
• Nick Martinez, RHP
• Brady Singer, RHP
• Graham Ashcraft, RHP

That means we're down to two. Between the duo of Ashcraft and Spiers, the former has the résumé, but the latter has enjoyed a more prosperous spring training. Ashcraft has plenty of history as a starter, but was lit up like a Christmas tree this past week against the Colorado Rockies. Spiers, on the other hand, has eight punch outs through five innings pitched this spring and has looked sharp.

Many fans (and even some pundits) believe that Ashcraft's ultimate destination may be the bullpen, but with so many injured starters (including Wade Miley), the Reds best course of action for the time being would be to keep the right-hander stretched out as a starter.

If, however, Ashcraft falters over the final few weeks of spring training, don't be surprised if Spiers sneaks in and takes away the final spot in the Reds starting rotation. Look for those two to battle it out until the bitter end, but the idea of Abbott joining the competition fades more and more with every passing day that he's not on the mound.

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