Brandon Williamson must fix one issue to stay in the Reds rotation plans

With the Cincinnati Reds officially eliminated from NL Central contention and merely counting down the days until the same fate befalls them in the Wild Card race, it's time to look ahead to 2027. Disappointing though that may be after a playoff appearance one year ago, there's plenty of talent on this roster worth betting on for the future.

Brandon Williamson should be included among that group, though his star is fading after years of injuries have sapped some of his raw potential. That story continued this year when he missed four months with a shoulder injury, which he only recently returned from at the beginning of September.

The rust has been obvious, as the 28-year-old southpaw has surrendered nine runs (six earned) in his first two appearances since rejoining the Reds. More problematically, his control issues from the early part of the season have carried over — Williamson has walked seven batters in those 9⅔ innings.

It's not groundbreaking analysis to say a guy has to throw strikes in order to succeed as a pitcher in the major leagues, but that applies to Williamson as much as anyone else right now. If he can't improve his command before we get to this offseason, it's going to be difficult for the Reds to pencil him into their projected 2027 rotation.

Brandon Williamson is losing the strike zone and the Reds' confidence

Unfortunately, it's not like we can chalk this issue up to the shoulder injury entirely; Williamson had more walks (20) than strikeouts (19) before hitting the IL, throwing strikes less than 58% of the time. For reference, the league average is around 64-65% in any given season.

He's up to a 63% strike rate since returning, but the walks are still coming in bunches. He's walked multiple batters in seven of his eight appearances this season, including three or more walks in five outings. It's one thing to issue a bunch of free passes if you're a one-inning reliever who can get out of jams with reams of punch outs, but Williamson is a starter with a career 19% strikeout rate (league average is around 22%).

This obviously hasn't been the breakout campaign we all envisioned when he cracked the Opening Day roster, but there's time for Williamson to salvage this season. He only walked about 8% of the batters he faced in his first two years in MLB, which is a far more tolerable rate for a pitcher trying to cover five-plus innings every time he steps onto the mound.

With Hunter Greene set to miss all of 2027 following Tommy John surgery and Brady Singer nearing a trip to free agency, at least one rotation spot in Cincinnati projects to be open soon. Williamson should become the the odds-on favorite to claim it, but he'll need to prove he can keep traffic off the basepaths first.

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