As Reds look like sellers, their trade chips are losing value at the worst time

The Reds entered the month of July looking like a playoff contender. FanGraphs credited the club with a 14.1% chance of making the postseason, up from 4.4% on June 1. However, the Reds are in a spiral and losing to some of the worst teams in baseball.

As the trade deadline approaches, Cincinnati may be on the road to seller status. Unfortunately, the most valuable trade chips are also in the midst of a slump.

Nick Martinez has long been considered the Reds’ most likely trade piece. The right-hander with starting and relief experience could provide the versatility that many contenders seek during the stretch run. His value rose on the back of a string of quality starts in May, but the summer months have been less kind.

Trio of Reds trade candidates have gone cold just as the trade deadline approaches

In June and July, Martinez has a 7.02 ERA and has been particularly prone to the long ball. He gave up five homers over his first 64 ⅔ innings of the season but has coughed up nine dingers in the last 41 innings. Martinez’s changeup, his most valuable pitch in 2024 with a 7 run value, now has a -6 run value. He may still be appealing as a reliever – he put forth two scoreless outings out of the ‘pen in June – but the return he would net probably wouldn’t make up for his exorbitant salary.

Martinez would be a rental, but the Reds could also ship off a pair of offseason acquisitions with one more year of team control. Brady Singer, whom the Reds gained in the Jonathan India trade, has another year of arbitration and could, therefore, entice teams. Singer has been a dependable middle-of-the-rotation arm. He hasn’t wowed lately, though. The dominance that saw him post 9.7 K/9 in the first month of the season has settled into a so-so form that has earned him a 1-4 record in June and July.

Similarly, Gavin Lux has another year of arbitration and his abilities as a utility player would certainly garner interest on the market. Lately, though, he has been on a downward slide. His batting average has fallen 30 points since the beginning of June and his on-base percentage, once his most valuable attribute, is down from .410 at the beginning of May to .359 as of July 9.

Dumping Martinez’s salary still makes sense even with a sub-par return in a trade. If the Reds opt to trade Singer and Lux, it may be the sign that they are throwing in the towel in 2025. Essentially, the Reds may be forced to sell low in order to make the most of a muddled and chaotic July.