Andrew Abbott's long-term future may hinge on fixing this one problem he can’t shake

In a rotation beset with injuries, Andrew Abbott has been the stabilizing force for the Cincinnati Reds this season. In fact, his 3.33 ERA since joining the big-league club in 2023 is the staff’s best mark during that span.

Abbott's ERA+ lands in the top 20 among starting pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched, ahead of respected vets Arizona Diamondbacks' Corbin Burnes and Texas Rangers' Nathan Eovaldi. In short, Abbott looks like the staff ace… until the calendar flips to August.

Abbott tends to hit his stride in May and June, during which he has a 2.14 ERA and 15-4 record in his career. July sees a bit of a step back with the ERA climbing to 3.26. August, though, has been Abbott’s Achilles’ heel. The lefty has won just three games in August and has yet to log a win in September or October. These struggles seem even more glaring as the Reds make a playoff push this year.

Reds' pitcher Andrew Abbott’s late-season struggles are holding him back from stardom

In his start against the Chicago Cubs, Abbott continued to struggle. His hard-hit rate soared to 37.5%, and his command was not as sharp as it has been. As a result, he fell behind batters, and when that happens, he has allowed opponents a .950 OPS this year. Even having pitched 6 ⅔ innings, Abbott lacked his usual spark.

As the Reds push for a Wild Card spot and deal with multiple rotation injuries, Abbott needs to shake this late-season swoon. His next test will come against the Philadelphia Phillies, who have the third-best slugging percentage off lefties among NL teams. Abbott, who has coughed up 10 homers in 51 ⅓ August innings, could be particularly vulnerable to the Phils’ lineup.

If Abbott does maintain his Cy Young contender-form through the end of the season, though, he will prove several things to the Reds’ front office. He can stay healthy and effective for 130-plus innings. He can shoulder the pressure of the stretch run even with the absence of Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo. And finally, he deserves an extension for being the dark-horse ace of the Reds’ pitching staff.

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