Reds vs. Pirates: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

The Reds wrap up the 2021 campaign in the Steel City battling the Pirates.

Thankfully, it’s October. For the first time since April, the Cincinnati Reds (82-77) endured a losing month at the most inopportune of times. After a scorching June through August that saw the Redlegs go 47-34, the club stumbled to an 11-15 mark in September, extinguishing any chances of grabbing the second Wild Card position in the National League.

Despite the disappointment of not qualifying for the postseason, there’s one last assignment on the docket and some individual goals to capture. Nick Castellanos (97) and Joey Votto (96) are attempting to become the first set of Reds teammates to cross the 100 RBI threshold since Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips accomplished the feat during the 2013 season.

For Castellanos, the 2021 campaign has been filled with milestones. The 29-year-old Floridian has set career highs in homers, OBP, and slugging. A first-time All-Star, his career-high .310 batting average currently ranks third in the senior circuit.

Even though all signs point to Castellanos opting out of his contract in the offseason, the right-handed hitting slugger will be remembered as one of the best free-agent signings in franchise history.

Rookie of the Year favorite Jonathan India also has a chance to accomplish something that hasn’t been done by a Reds rookie since Pete Rose in 1963. If India can dent the plate four times this weekend, he’ll be the first Cincinnati rookie in nearly 60 years to cross the century mark in runs scored.

Believe it or not, the Pirates (59-100) have something to play for this weekend as well. The Bucs are trying to avoid being remembered as one of the worst Pirate teams ever. If Pittsburgh is swept this weekend, it will saddle the team with the fifth most defeats in a season in franchise history.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Pirates

Tonight’s opener finds Luis Castillo (8-16 4.05 ERA) making his final start of the season opposing Wil Crowe (4-8 5.77 ERA) of the Pirates. It hasn’t been the year that La Piedra or Reds Country envisioned for the right-hander, but he’s closing on a solid note.

Castillo has compiled a 2.62 ERA over his last seven starts while fanning 49 in 44.2 innings. If La Piedra can toss a complete game this evening, he will eclipse his career-high of 190.2 innings in a season. Not too shabby for a guy who was sporting an ERA north of six in the middle of June.

It’s been tough sledding of late for the Bucs’ Wil Crowe. Over his last seven appearances, Crowe’s been rocked for 40 hits and issued 15 free passes in just 30.1 frames. As a result, the 7.12 ERA over that span should come as no surprise. Unfortunately, the right-hander didn’t fare much better, allowing eight hits and walking two in four innings in a loss to the Reds in August.

Tyler Mahle (13-6 3.54 ERA) toes the rubber Saturday night, battling Pittsburgh’s Max Kranick (2-3 6.23 ERA).  To state the obvious, 2021 has been a breakout year for the Cincinnati right-hander.

Establishing career-best marks in nearly every category, Mahle is finishing the season pitching perhaps his best baseball of the season. The 26-year-old California native has held the opposition to three runs or less in six of his last seven outings and has only surrendered four gopher balls in his previous 40 innings.

Right-hander Max Kranick is coming off an excellent start versus the Philadelphia Phillies. Tossing five innings of shutout baseball, the 23-year-old rookie earned his victory since June 27th. This will be his first career start against Cincinnati.

Sunday’s season finale will feature Reiver Sanmartin (1-0 1.59 ERA) making his second start for the Redlegs. Pittsburgh manager Derek Shelton has yet to name a starter for the Sunday matinee contest.

It’s tough to be much better than Sanmartin in his major league debut. The left-hander surrendered just one run in 5.2 frames versus the Pirates on Monday afternoon at Great American Ball Park. Another strong showing Sunday would be a huge confidence boost for the 25-year-old southpaw heading into the 2022 campaign.

The Reds’ rookies excelled in 2021.

While Nick Castellanos, Joey Votto, and a healthy Jesse Winker received, and rightfully so, much of the headlines this year, there’s no denying the incredible contributions the Redlegs received from the new guys on the block. Hopefully, this will be remembered as the year the nucleus of the next great Cincinnati Reds team first appeared on the scene.

Second baseman Jonathan India is the favorite to become the Reds’ first NL Rookie of the Year since Scott Williamson was honored following the 1999 season. If India claims the prize, he’ll be the first Cincinnati rookie position player to be crowned since 1988, when Chris Sabo won the award.

Even though he didn’t have the number of opportunities as India had, there’s no denying Tyler Stephenson’s time has arrived.  Regardless of the front office’s decision regarding Tucker Barnhart’s future, it’s obvious Stephenson should be the club’s No. 1 backstop for next season.

Let’s not forget the outstanding performance of right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez as well. Despite pitching on fumes the last few weeks of the season, the 25-year-old Cuban proved to be more than capable of being a successful pitcher at the major league level.

Finally, we haven’t even mentioned Tony Santillan and Jose Barrero, who both saw time with the club this year, and who isn’t excited to see top pitching prospects Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo hopefully take the next step in their development and open the 2022 season in the Queen City. So it’s an exciting time for Reds Country.

Prediction

Look for the Reds to take two of three from the Pirates at PNC Park and conclude the 2021 season with 84 victories which will be the fourth most in a season for the club in the last 20 years.

On a personal note, a huge “thank you” to Reds Country for reading and commenting on all 52 series previews in this roller coaster of a ride known as the 2021 Cincinnati Reds. The readers of Blog Red Machine are among the most passionate of any fanbase in the game, and I’m grateful to be a small part of the team. How about we do this again in March of 2022?