Reds vs. Pirates: Preview, pitching matchup, and prediction

Six of the Reds final 12 games are against the Pirates.

The Cincinnati Reds (77-73) are running out of time. The Redlegs trails the St. Louis Cardinals by three games in the chase for the final Wild Card spot with 12 left to play. Thankfully, six of the Reds’ upcoming contests are against the Pittsburgh Pirates (56-93).

On the flip side, the Redbirds have 14 games remaining and seven of those are against the NL Central Division Champion Milwaukee Brewers. St. Louis is riding an eight-game winning streak while Cincinnati has dropped eight consecutive series. The Reds are 8-16 in their last 24 games. Ouch!

Before this horrific streak began, the Reds were 12 games over .500 and looked to be a lock for the postseason. According to Baseball Reference, over the past month, the Redlegs chances of making the playoffs has gone down 44.7%. Only the New York Yankees’ postseason aspirations have taken a bigger hit.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, have seen their postseason odds increase by 72.4% in the past month as Mike Shildt’s ball club sits atop the Wild Card standings with both the Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies sitting three games back. The Reds playoff chances now sit at 17.9%.

But, there’s reason for hope, Reds Country. The Redlegs close out the season with six games versus the Pittsburgh Pirates, four against the Washington Nationals, and two with the soon-to-be crowned AL Central Champion Chicago White Sox. The Reds have everything to play for over the next two weeks and their opponents do not.

Pittsburgh is on their way to a 100-loss season, the Nationals are 3-7 over their last 10 games, and the White Sox will probably be more concerned about setting their rotation for the postseason than winning games by the time Cincinnati rolls into the Windy City.

The Cardinals face two of Milwaukee’s best starters (Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff) in the coming days, and if the Reds can upend the Buccos, there’s a chance that Cincinnati can be right back in the thick of the playoff hunt by the end of the week. Let’s preview the upcoming series against the Pirates, shall we?

Pirates outfielder Yoshi Tsutsugo did damage versus the Reds last week.

Pittsburgh Pirates left fielder Yoshi Tsutsugo has been on a tear of late. Over his last 26 games, Tsutsugo is hitting .292/.395/.625 with six home runs and 18 RBIs. Only Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds have collected more hits for the Buccos during the last month.

Prior to last season, the Japanese star signed a two-year/$12M contract with the Tampa Bay Rays, but was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers this past May after hitting .167 in 87 plate appearances. The 29-year-old was released by LA in August, signed by Pittsburgh, and has been mashing for the Pirates ever since.

While the Bucs are well on their way to a 100-loss season, don’t let their win-loss record fool you. The Bucs have the seventh-best batting average over the last month, and while their slugging percentage during that time ranks 11th-best in the NL, their .325 on-base percentage during that timeframe is good enough for the sixth-highest in the National League.

In short, the Pirates recent string of success has been predicated by the age old notion of getting ’em on, getting ’em over, and getting ’em in. In fact, 20% of the Pirates’ league-worst 549 runs scored have come in the last 30 days. To put it in perspective, the Reds have scored only 12.9% of their 720 runs over the last 30 days.

The Pittsburgh pitching staff, however, isn’t enjoying the same success. Bucco hurlers rank in the bottom-third of the league in ERA and strikeouts over the last month while also issuing 96 free passes, the fifth most in the NL. We’ve said this plenty of times this season, Reds’ hitters need to be patient at the dish.

The Reds bullpen has been lights out of late.

I know it’s easy to be critical of Cincinnati’s general manager Nick Krall right now. With minor league hitting coordinator CJ Gillman and minor league pitching coordinator Kyle Boddy having agreed to part ways with the Cincinnati Reds, a lot of eyebrows have been raised and fans are questioning the direction of this franchise moving forward.

That said, Krall’s trade deadline acquisitions (Luis Cessa, Justin Wilson, and Mychal Givens) have been lights out of late. The trio has combined to throw 13.1 innings over the last two weeks and have allowed just four hits and one unearned run.

Add to that mix the duo of Art Warren and Tony Santillan, and the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen, all of the sudden, looks like the team’s biggest strength rather than its biggest weakness. Santillan and Warren, during that same timeframe, have pitched a combined nine innings, struck out 11 batters, and put zeros up on the board each time they head to the hill.

The Reds’ bullpen is 4-for-4 in save opportunities over the last two weeks, owning a 3.43 ERA, and recording 116 punch outs over 112.1 innings of work. While the normally reliable Lucas Sims and Michael Lorenzen have allowed six earned runs over their combined 11 innings of relief, the aforementioned quintet of relievers have kept the Reds in games late.

Prediction: Reds vs. Pirates

Call me crazy, but this endless cycle of losing series stops this week. While I don’t have enough confidence to predict a three-game sweep, I believe the Redlegs will finally get the monkey off their back and take two of three from the Buccos this week at home.

The St. Louis Cardinals will likely avoid Cy Young candidate Corbin Burnes during their upcoming four-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers. The Cincinnati Reds will need to hope that Milwaukee’s dynamic duo of Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff can dispense of the Cardinals this week and put an end to the Redbirds’ eight-game win streak.