Reds vs. Pirates: Preview, pitching matchup, and prediction

Pirates outfielder Yoshi Tsutsugo did damage versus the Reds last week.

Pittsburgh Pirates left fielder Yoshi Tsutsugo has been on a tear of late. Over his last 26 games, Tsutsugo is hitting .292/.395/.625 with six home runs and 18 RBIs. Only Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds have collected more hits for the Buccos during the last month.

Prior to last season, the Japanese star signed a two-year/$12M contract with the Tampa Bay Rays, but was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers this past May after hitting .167 in 87 plate appearances. The 29-year-old was released by LA in August, signed by Pittsburgh, and has been mashing for the Pirates ever since.

While the Bucs are well on their way to a 100-loss season, don’t let their win-loss record fool you. The Bucs have the seventh-best batting average over the last month, and while their slugging percentage during that time ranks 11th-best in the NL, their .325 on-base percentage during that timeframe is good enough for the sixth-highest in the National League.

In short, the Pirates recent string of success has been predicated by the age old notion of getting ’em on, getting ’em over, and getting ’em in. In fact, 20% of the Pirates’ league-worst 549 runs scored have come in the last 30 days. To put it in perspective, the Reds have scored only 12.9% of their 720 runs over the last 30 days.

The Pittsburgh pitching staff, however, isn’t enjoying the same success. Bucco hurlers rank in the bottom-third of the league in ERA and strikeouts over the last month while also issuing 96 free passes, the fifth most in the NL. We’ve said this plenty of times this season, Reds’ hitters need to be patient at the dish.