Reds vs. Dodgers: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

The Reds return home as they welcome an excellent Dodgers squad to town.

Let’s give the Cincinnati Reds (76-71) some credit. They’re nothing if not consistent these days. Unfortunately, Cincinnati returns to Great American Ball Park for their final homestand of the 2021 season following a devastating seventh consecutive series defeat; the latest to the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates.

To say the Reds’ playoff aspirations have been severely damaged over the past four weeks is a massive understatement. As a result of the Reds and San Diego Padres seemingly attempting to one-up each other in the loss column, a new and bitter development has occurred.

The division rival St. Louis Cardinals have taken advantage of the reeling Redlegs and floundering  Friars and seized the lead for the final National League Wild Card berth. Winners of five consecutive contests, the Redbirds hold a half-game advantage over the Padres and are a full game clear of the Reds in the standings.

There’s no easy way to say it, but Cincinnati is entirely responsible for the conundrum they find themselves in. After dropping 14 of the last 21 games, the oddsmakers at Baseball-Reference are leaping from the Reds bandwagon in droves, giving them just a 33.2% chance of qualifying for the postseason.

This weekend’s opponent is not having the same issues as the Reds. The Los Angeles Dodgers (94-53) enter the Queen City winners of eight of their last 10 and 23 of their previous 30 contests. Having already clinched their ninth consecutive playoff appearance earlier this week, the Dodgers currently trail the San Francisco Giants by just one game in a heated NL West division battle.

Over the last decade, LA has owned Cincinnati, sporting a 35-21 record.  Since 2014 the Reds have taken the season series only once. However, after taking two of three from the Dodgers in April at Chavez Ravine, the Redlegs can end years of frustration with two victories this weekend.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Dodgers

Luis Castillo (7-15 4.24 ERA) gets the call in the opener tonight as the Dodgers counter with Walker Buehler (14-3 2.32 ERA). In a season of missed opportunities for La Piedra, his last outing versus the Cardinals may have been the most painful to date.

Staked to a four-run advantage, Castillo could not hold down the Redbirds as he allowed four runs in seven innings before the Reds eventually went down to defeat on a two-out, two-run homer from Nolan Arenado off Lucas Sims in the bottom of the eighth.

Over his career, La Piedra has been a handful for the Dodgers. In three starts, he’s unbeaten in two decisions with 24 punchouts in only 17.1 frames. Needless to say, the Reds could use a similar performance this evening in the worst way.

Cincinnati has been one of the few teams that have roughed up Walker Buehler this season. The Redlegs plated five runners on seven hits off the LA right-hander during an April 27th start at Dodger Stadium. Look for Mike Moustakas to be in David Bell’s starting lineup tonight. Moose is 4-for-11 lifetime versus Buehler.

Saturday afternoon finds Sonny Gray (7-7 3.80 ERA) battling Max Scherzer (14-4 2.17 ERA) of the Dodgers. Even though he’s seeking his first victory since 2015 against LA, Sonny Gray has been tough versus Hollywood’s best.

Making three career starts against the Dodgers, Gray is 1-2 with a sparkling 2.18 ERA. Tossing 20.2 innings, he’s fanned 29 Dodger hitters. In addition, his 11 Ks against LA in an April 28th start at Dodger Stadium are a season-high for the Cincinnati right-hander.

Even though Max Scherzer may be on his way to a fourth Cy Young trophy this season, the Reds have been able to hang one of his four L’s on him. Powered by round-trippers from Kyle Farmer and Eugenio Suárez, the Redlegs defeated Mad Max in May while still a member of the Washington Nationals.

Sunday’s matinee series finale will feature Wade Miley (12-6 3.09) toeing the rubber as Clayton Kershaw (9-7 3.33 ERA) gets the assignment for Dave Robert’s club. Historically, September has been Miley’s most challenging month to navigate, and unfortunately, history is repeating itself.

Miley has been walloped for 11 earned runs and a horrifying 27 hits in 15.1 innings of work in three September starts. The Reds’ southpaw will need to tread carefully around Trea Turner. LA’s second baseman has collect hits in four of their six meetings.

Future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw will be making his second start since being sidelined with left forearm tightness. So how long has it been since the Redlegs defeated the Dodgers left-hander? Try May of 2014 when a Brandon Phillips homer propelled the Reds to a 3-2 victory at Dodger Stadium.

The Reds offense is struggling as the finish line is in sight.

For much of the 2021 season, the Cincinnati Reds offense has been one of the best units in the National League. But, unfortunately, when the Redlegs have needed them the most, the bats have gone silent.

Entering play yesterday, the Cincinnati offense was slashing a paltry .227/.291/.400 while striking out 193 times and only drawing 64 free passes over the last 28 days. Those were the numbers before yesterday’s one-run five,-hit feeble performance. Ouch.

Since the calendar flipped to September, Tucker Barnhart, Delino DeShields Jr., Kyle Farmer, Mike Moustakas, and Tyler Stephenson have all posted an OPS+ mark of 76 or below. How bad has it been for Shogo Akiyama, Aristides Aquino, and Asdrubal Cabrera? Cover the kid’s eyes bad.

That trio of Reds has combined to go an absolutely horrific 7-for-80. However, help appears to be on the way and not a moment too soon.

According to various reports last night, All-Star outfielder Jesse Winker will be in the starting lineup for the first time since August 15th after a stint on the IL with an intercostal strain. But, unfortunately, even that exciting news is tinged with disappointment.

That’s because, according to a report from Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer, Tyler Naquin, who is slashing .344/.385/.689 this month, appears headed for the IL with bruised ribs as a result of a collision with Jose Barrero during Saturday’s game in St. Louis. Nothing comes easy right now for the Redlegs.

Prediction

Can the Cincinnati Reds finally put an end to their crippling seven-series losing streak? I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it’s not happening this weekend.

If the Reds can’t take a series from the Cubs, Marlins, Tigers, and Pirates, there’s absolutely no reason to believe they will rise up and take down the mighty Dodgers. So the best Reds Country can hope for is the club righting the ship with the Pirates and Nationals coming to town following LA’s visit to GABP.