Reds vs. Pirates: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

The Reds conclude a nine-game road trek with a trip to Pittsburgh.

Let’s take a deep breath, Reds Country.  The Cincinnati Reds (75-69) have 18 games remaining on their schedule, and they control their own destiny. Let’s be honest, if we were given such a scenario before the season, everyone in the Queen City would be onboard.

It goes without saying, the Redlegs have placed themselves in an easily avoidable situation. As a result of losing six consecutive series and 12 of their last 18 contests, Cincinnati has chosen the road most difficult to qualify for October, but not all is lost.

As play begins today, the Reds lead the race for the final National League Wild Card spot by a half-game over the San Diego Padres and the St. Louis Cardinals. Baseball-Reference is still fairly confident in the Redlegs, giving them a 63.4% chance of claiming the final playoff slot in the senior circuit.

This will be just Cincinnati’s second visit to the Steel City in 2021. So how long has it been since the Reds played a game in PNC Park? The last time the Reds visited the Pirates, Nick Senzel was in the starting lineup and batting lead off.

As the Reds attempt to capture their first series victory in nearly a month, there’s no doubt they’ll keep a watchful eye on the scoreboard as the Padres are visiting the Bay Area to tangle with the NL West-leading San Francisco Giants. At the same time, the Cardinals are in the Big Apple for a set with the New York Mets.

This season, Cincinnati has dominated the Pirates (52-91), winning nine of the 10 games between the two clubs. The Redlegs took two of three from the Bucs at PNC Park in May, and with one more win, they will clinch their second straight season series victory over the Pirates.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Pirates

When the Reds need to bounce back, Wade Miley (12-5 2.89 ERA) has been the guy. The left-hander gets the call in tonight’s opener and he’ll be opposed by Dillon Peters (0-2 3.38 ERA) of the Pirates. Once again, Miley was brilliant in his outing.

Tossing seven innings of five-hit one-run baseball, the Louisiana native stymied the Chicago Cubs en route to his 12th victory of the season. All signs point to win number 13 occurring this evening. Miley has not allowed a run in 13 frames in two starts against the Bucs this year.

Left-hander Dillon Peters will be making his fifth start for Pittsburgh after being purchased from the Los Angeles Angles in July. Working 18.2 innings, he’s surrendered just one gopher ball; however, he has issued seven free passes. Patience will be a virtue tonight for Reds’ hitters.

Wednesday night finds Vladimir Gutierrez (9-6 4.05 ERA) seeking that elusive 10th victory as he battles Mitch Keller (4-11 6.29 ERA). This will be the Reds’ right-hander fourth attempt to become the third member of the Cincinnati rotation to hit double digits in victories this season.

If this start is anything like his first appearance against Pittsburgh, the search will be over. The Cuban hurled six frames of one-run baseball while fanning a half-dozen Pirates. In addition, Gutierrez has posted an impressive 6-2 mark with a 3.43 ERA on the road in his debut campaign.

How poor has Mitch Keller been this season? Among all NL pitchers who have thrown at least 80 innings, he’s last in WHIP (1.77) and has compiled an unsightly -0.5 bWAR. Additionally, he’s been taken to the woodshed when facing the Reds. The right-hander is 0-3 with an 8.86 ERA in his last five outings versus the Redlegs.

Thursday’s matinee series finale will feature Tyler Mahle (11-5 3.73 ERA) toeing the rubber for Cincinnati. Bucs skipper Derek Shelton has yet to announce his starter for the afternoon contest.

The Reds right-hander has been brilliant in two appearances against the Pirates this year. Working 12.1 innings, the California native has allowed three runs while punching out a remarkable 17 Pittsburgh hitters. Look for more of the same from Mahle on Thursday.

The Reds’ utility man has made the most of his opportunities.

Even though the 26-year-old rookie only has 89 MLB at-bats, it’s fairly easy to reach at least one conclusion. Max Schrock eats right-handed pitching for lunch.

In 66 at-bats this season versus righties, Schrock is slashing an outstanding .333/.389/.515 with four doubles, two homers, and a triple. Despite making only 15 starts in 2021, the left-handed slugger has produced both three and five-hit performances.

It’s also obvious manager David Bell is gaining more confidence in Max Schrock as well. Since September 1st, Schrock has made five starts, primarily in left field against right-handed pitching, as Jesse Winker continues to be shelved with an intercostal injury.

According to multiple reports, Winker could begin a rehab assignment as early as today. So what happens to Schrock once Da Wink returns? If David Bell is truly honest with himself, the North Carolina native should move to the hot corner.

Admit it, Reds Country. The best chance the team has down the stretch of making the playoffs is ensuring that Max Schrock continues to receive at-bats over veterans Mike Moustakas and Eugenio Suarez.

Prediction

This series should be the equivalent of a layup for the Cincinnati Reds. If ever there was a remedy to cure the Reds’ recent woes, the Pittsburgh Pirates are surely it. Of course, you never want to look ahead, but this is the series for the Redlegs to do some much-needed damage.

When the Reds return to Great American Ball Park, they’ll have an excellent Los Angeles Dodgers squad awaiting them. The Dodgers will encounter a newly confident Reds club as they return to the Queen City, fresh off a three-game sweep of the dreadful Pirates.