Reds vs. Pirates: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

Bucs appear destined for their first 100-loss campaign in more than a decade.

It’s not easy being a Pirates fan. Only once, in the last six seasons, have the Bucs finished within 15 games of first place in the NL Central.  Additionally, Pittsburgh hasn’t finished as high as third place in the five-team division since the 2016 campaign.

Despite those horrifying numbers, the 2021 season will be the worst in a terrible stretch of Pittsburgh baseball. To avoid their first 100-loss campaign since 2010, the Pirates will need to go at least 11-8 to close out the season. In other words, it’s almost an inevitability the Bucs will cross the triple-digit threshold in the loss column.

Will manager Derek Shelton be completing the lineup card for the Pirates on Opening Day in 2022?That’s anyone’s guess, but despite the 71-132 record he’s compiled in two seasons in the Steel City, he’s the least of their problems. This club is awful across the board.

Offensively, they are the worst-hitting team in the NL. Pittsburgh ranks last in the senior circuit in home runs, slugging, and OPS. The one bright spot in the Bucs lineup has been outfielder Bryan Reynolds.

The switch-hitting All-Star leads the team in nearly every conceivable offensive category and slashes an impressive .299/.383/.514 with 23 round-trippers and 85 RBIs. Essentially, he’s the one hitter in the Pirates order you can’t allow to beat you.

Needless to say, little solace has been found on the pitching mound as well. They own the second-worst marks in the league in ERA, WHIP, and saves. In addition, the Pirates are tied for the basement in the NL with a 3.9 BB/9 rate.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Pirates

When the Reds need to bounce back, Wade Miley (12-5 2.89 ERA) has been the guy. The left-hander gets the call in tonight’s opener and he’ll be opposed by Dillon Peters (0-2 3.38 ERA) of the Pirates. Once again, Miley was brilliant in his outing.

Tossing seven innings of five-hit one-run baseball, the Louisiana native stymied the Chicago Cubs en route to his 12th victory of the season. All signs point to win number 13 occurring this evening. Miley has not allowed a run in 13 frames in two starts against the Bucs this year.

Left-hander Dillon Peters will be making his fifth start for Pittsburgh after being purchased from the Los Angeles Angles in July. Working 18.2 innings, he’s surrendered just one gopher ball; however, he has issued seven free passes. Patience will be a virtue tonight for Reds’ hitters.

Wednesday night finds Vladimir Gutierrez (9-6 4.05 ERA) seeking that elusive 10th victory as he battles Mitch Keller (4-11 6.29 ERA). This will be the Reds’ right-hander fourth attempt to become the third member of the Cincinnati rotation to hit double digits in victories this season.

If this start is anything like his first appearance against Pittsburgh, the search will be over. The Cuban hurled six frames of one-run baseball while fanning a half-dozen Pirates. In addition, Gutierrez has posted an impressive 6-2 mark with a 3.43 ERA on the road in his debut campaign.

How poor has Mitch Keller been this season? Among all NL pitchers who have thrown at least 80 innings, he’s last in WHIP (1.77) and has compiled an unsightly -0.5 bWAR. Additionally, he’s been taken to the woodshed when facing the Reds. The right-hander is 0-3 with an 8.86 ERA in his last five outings versus the Redlegs.

Thursday’s matinee series finale will feature Tyler Mahle (11-5 3.73 ERA) toeing the rubber for Cincinnati. Bucs skipper Derek Shelton has yet to announce his starter for the afternoon contest.

The Reds right-hander has been brilliant in two appearances against the Pirates this year. Working 12.1 innings, the California native has allowed three runs while punching out a remarkable 17 Pittsburgh hitters. Look for more of the same from Mahle on Thursday.

The Reds’ utility man has made the most of his opportunities.

Even though the 26-year-old rookie only has 89 MLB at-bats, it’s fairly easy to reach at least one conclusion. Max Schrock eats right-handed pitching for lunch.

In 66 at-bats this season versus righties, Schrock is slashing an outstanding .333/.389/.515 with four doubles, two homers, and a triple. Despite making only 15 starts in 2021, the left-handed slugger has produced both three and five-hit performances.

It’s also obvious manager David Bell is gaining more confidence in Max Schrock as well. Since September 1st, Schrock has made five starts, primarily in left field against right-handed pitching, as Jesse Winker continues to be shelved with an intercostal injury.

According to multiple reports, Winker could begin a rehab assignment as early as today. So what happens to Schrock once Da Wink returns? If David Bell is truly honest with himself, the North Carolina native should move to the hot corner.

Admit it, Reds Country. The best chance the team has down the stretch of making the playoffs is ensuring that Max Schrock continues to receive at-bats over veterans Mike Moustakas and Eugenio Suarez.

Prediction

This series should be the equivalent of a layup for the Cincinnati Reds. If ever there was a remedy to cure the Reds’ recent woes, the Pittsburgh Pirates are surely it. Of course, you never want to look ahead, but this is the series for the Redlegs to do some much-needed damage.

When the Reds return to Great American Ball Park, they’ll have an excellent Los Angeles Dodgers squad awaiting them. The Dodgers will encounter a newly confident Reds club as they return to the Queen City, fresh off a three-game sweep of the dreadful Pirates.