Reds vs. Cardinals: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

The Reds visit St. Louis in a battle for playoff positioning.

It’s become a common refrain, but the Cincinnati Reds (74-67) suffered another devasting blow in their pursuit for the final playoff spot in the National League. For the second time in three weeks, the Redlegs dropped two of three to a Chicago Cubs ballclub who has absolutely nothing to play for as the conclusion of the 2021 campaign draws near.

Despite losing five consecutive series and dropping 10 of their last 15 contests, the Reds find themselves trailing the San Diego Padres by just one game for the remaining postseason birth in the senior circuit. As the Redlegs prepare for a weekend tilt in St. Louis, the Friars head north to battle an excellent Los Angeles Dodgers squad.

Believe it or not, despite their recent horrid play, the Reds still have believers. Entering play today, Baseball-Reference gives the Redlegs a 59.9% chance of qualifying for the postseason.

Unfortunately, the Reds have much more to worry about than the Padres. Cincinnati holds a slim, two-game margin over the host Redbirds in the Wild Card race and can ill afford to allow them to draw any closer.

The St. Louis Cardinals (71-68) took two of three from the Cincinnati Reds last week in the Queen City. However, the last time the two clubs met along the banks of the Mississippi River, the Reds swept a four-game series from their hospitable hosts.

As the teams meet for the final time in the 2021 season, the Redlegs hold a 9-7 advantage over the Cardinals. If the Reds capture just one game this weekend, it will give them their first season series victory over St. Louis since the 2011 campaign.

The Reds cannot allow Paul Goldschmidt to beat them.

Three home runs and five RBI’s. That was the total damage St. Louis Cardinals’ first baseman, Paul Goldschmidt, inflected on the Reds the last time the two teams met. If it makes Reds Country feel any better, Goldy has been an equal opportunity abuser as of late.

After compiling a solid, but unspectacular .265/.335/.432 slash line during the first half of the season, the right-handed slugger has been punishing opponents post-All-Star break. During the month of August, Goldschmidt slashed .350/.402/.602 with an amazing 1.004 OPS that included five round-trippers and 24 RBIs.

His four long balls versus the Reds are twice as many as he has against any other opponent this season. Goldschmidt has also shared the punishment among the Reds starting rotation. Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, and Wade Miley have each surrendered at least one gopher ball to the Texan this year.

Additionally, it’s impossible to get too comfortable even when you get ahead in the count versus the six-time All-Star. When Goldschmidt falls behind 0-1 in the count, he’s still hitting an amazing .435 with four home runs this year.

You don’t want to give into Goldy because the guy hitting behind him is not the same hitter outside of the thin Colorado air. It’s painfully obvious third baseman Nolan Arenado is not in Colorado anymore. Arenado has struggled mightily in the second half, slashing .232/.294/.483 with 12 homers and 35 ribbies. His August was especially putrid.

Producing a slash line of just .212/.278/.433, Arenado is on pace for a career-worst batting average over the course of a full season since entering the major leagues in 2013. If given a choice, Reds’ manager David Bell should do everything in his power to bypass Goldschmidt and pitch to the not nearly as dangerous as he used to be Arenado.

Pitching preview: Reds vs. Cardinals

Tyler Mahle (11-5 3.76 ERA) takes the mound tonight as the Cardinals counter with Jon Lester (5-6 4.89 ERA). However, if the Reds had to pick one guy to throw at St. Louis, the California native might be just the person.

Making three starts versus the Redbirds in 2021, Mahle is 2-0 and has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his outings. Additionally, the right-hander has fanned 22 Cardinals in only 17 innings this year.

In his last three appearances, veteran southpaw Jon Lester has allowed just three runs in 16.2 frames. Additionally, he’s dominated the Redlegs the last two times they’ve met. Hurling 11.1 frames, the 37-year-old left-hander has yielded just one base hit.

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Saturday night finds Luis Castillo (7-15 4.20 ERA) toeing the rubber as he opposed Miles Mikolas (0-2 5.06 ERA) of the Cardinals. La Piedra was better in his outing, allowing only one earned run in six innings against the Detroit Tigers; however, it wasn’t enough to spare him from his fifth defeat in his last six starts.

Let’s hope St. Louis has aging backstop, Yadier Molina, in the lineup Saturday night. The 38-year-old catcher, who has been an above-average hitter just once in the last five seasons, is 4-for-30 lifetime against Castillo.

After battling numerous injuries the past two seasons, Miles Mikolas is still seeking his first victory since the 2019 campaign. If recent history is any indication, that first win isn’t arriving Saturday night. The right-hander is winless in his last five starts against the Redlegs with an eye-popping 6.84 ERA.

Sunday afternoon’s matinee series finale features Sonny Gray (7-6 3.88 ERA) battling struggling lefty J.A. Happ (8-8 6.24 ERA). In his last four starts, the Cincinnati right-hander has allowed just four earned runs in 23 innings.

Gray has been a road warrior for the Redlegs this season. Making 10 starts, he’s compiled an impressive 3.02 ERA and has surrendered just four gopher balls in 53.2 frames away from Great American Ball Park.

How bad was J.A. Happ’s last outing versus the Reds? Seven runs in one inning bad. It was so awful, St. Louis manager Mike Shildt’s feelings were so bruised he asked the home plate umpire to examine Nick Castellanos’ bat following his second homer in as many innings against the 38-year-old southpaw. Never change, St. Louis. Never change.