Reds vs. Cardinals: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

The Reds cannot allow Paul Goldschmidt to beat them.

Three home runs and five RBI’s. That was the total damage St. Louis Cardinals’ first baseman, Paul Goldschmidt, inflected on the Reds the last time the two teams met. If it makes Reds Country feel any better, Goldy has been an equal opportunity abuser as of late.

After compiling a solid, but unspectacular .265/.335/.432 slash line during the first half of the season, the right-handed slugger has been punishing opponents post-All-Star break. During the month of August, Goldschmidt slashed .350/.402/.602 with an amazing 1.004 OPS that included five round-trippers and 24 RBIs.

His four long balls versus the Reds are twice as many as he has against any other opponent this season. Goldschmidt has also shared the punishment among the Reds starting rotation. Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, and Wade Miley have each surrendered at least one gopher ball to the Texan this year.

Additionally, it’s impossible to get too comfortable even when you get ahead in the count versus the six-time All-Star. When Goldschmidt falls behind 0-1 in the count, he’s still hitting an amazing .435 with four home runs this year.

You don’t want to give into Goldy because the guy hitting behind him is not the same hitter outside of the thin Colorado air. It’s painfully obvious third baseman Nolan Arenado is not in Colorado anymore. Arenado has struggled mightily in the second half, slashing .232/.294/.483 with 12 homers and 35 ribbies. His August was especially putrid.

Producing a slash line of just .212/.278/.433, Arenado is on pace for a career-worst batting average over the course of a full season since entering the major leagues in 2013. If given a choice, Reds’ manager David Bell should do everything in his power to bypass Goldschmidt and pitch to the not nearly as dangerous as he used to be Arenado.

Pitching preview: Reds vs. Cardinals

Tyler Mahle (11-5 3.76 ERA) takes the mound tonight as the Cardinals counter with Jon Lester (5-6 4.89 ERA). However, if the Reds had to pick one guy to throw at St. Louis, the California native might be just the person.

Making three starts versus the Redbirds in 2021, Mahle is 2-0 and has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his outings. Additionally, the right-hander has fanned 22 Cardinals in only 17 innings this year.

In his last three appearances, veteran southpaw Jon Lester has allowed just three runs in 16.2 frames. Additionally, he’s dominated the Redlegs the last two times they’ve met. Hurling 11.1 frames, the 37-year-old left-hander has yielded just one base hit.

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Saturday night finds Luis Castillo (7-15 4.20 ERA) toeing the rubber as he opposed Miles Mikolas (0-2 5.06 ERA) of the Cardinals. La Piedra was better in his outing, allowing only one earned run in six innings against the Detroit Tigers; however, it wasn’t enough to spare him from his fifth defeat in his last six starts.

Let’s hope St. Louis has aging backstop, Yadier Molina, in the lineup Saturday night. The 38-year-old catcher, who has been an above-average hitter just once in the last five seasons, is 4-for-30 lifetime against Castillo.

After battling numerous injuries the past two seasons, Miles Mikolas is still seeking his first victory since the 2019 campaign. If recent history is any indication, that first win isn’t arriving Saturday night. The right-hander is winless in his last five starts against the Redlegs with an eye-popping 6.84 ERA.

Sunday afternoon’s matinee series finale features Sonny Gray (7-6 3.88 ERA) battling struggling lefty J.A. Happ (8-8 6.24 ERA). In his last four starts, the Cincinnati right-hander has allowed just four earned runs in 23 innings.

Gray has been a road warrior for the Redlegs this season. Making 10 starts, he’s compiled an impressive 3.02 ERA and has surrendered just four gopher balls in 53.2 frames away from Great American Ball Park.

How bad was J.A. Happ’s last outing versus the Reds? Seven runs in one inning bad. It was so awful, St. Louis manager Mike Shildt’s feelings were so bruised he asked the home plate umpire to examine Nick Castellanos’ bat following his second homer in as many innings against the 38-year-old southpaw. Never change, St. Louis. Never change.

Reds rookie right-hander has been sensational out of the bullpen.

The 2021 season may be remembered as the year of the rookie in the Queen City. Not only has Reds Country been treated to excellent performances from Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson, and Vladimir Gutierrez, but there’s another young Redleg making a name for himself as of late.

Right-hander Tony Santillan has been brilliant since being moved to the bullpen. Making 14 appearances in relief, the big Texan has brought it when called upon by manager David Bell. Tossing 16.2 innings out of the Reds’ bullpen, Santillan has produced an excellent 2.70 ERA while fanning 24 opposing hitters in just 16.2 innings of work. But wait. There’s more!

Since rejoining the big league club on August 17th, the 24-year-old has yielded only one run in 10 innings. It’s also obvious Bell is growing more comfortable using Santillan in late-game situations. The former second-round draft pick has appeared in the seventh inning or later in five of his last eight trips to the mound.

Prediction

Needless to say, this is a series the Reds need to win the worst way, and there’s absolutely no reason Cincinnati shouldn’t capture their first series victory in three weeks. Over the next three days, the Redlegs will face two left-handers barely clinging to a major league roster and a right-hander who hasn’t won a game in nearly two years.

For the first time in a decade, the Reds will take a season series from St. Louis. When Cincinnati rolls into the Steel City to begin a series with the Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday, look for them to be atop the National League Wild Card standings after taking two of three from the Redbirds.