Reds vs. Cubs: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

The Reds seek retribution against the Cubs as they visit Wrigley Field.

Believe it or not, someone will claim the second Wild Card berth in the National League. But, unfortunately, we each passing day, it’s becoming more difficult to believe that team will be our beloved Cincinnati Reds.

The Reds (73-65) capped off a disastrous six-game homestand with an anemic performance in a 4-1 defeat yesterday to the Detroit Tigers to finish the week with a dismal 2-4 record.  Cincinnati has dropped four consecutive series and five of their last six. Needless to say, nothing is coming easy for the Reds these days.

Amazingly enough, despite the downward spiral of the last two weeks, the Redlegs find themselves just a half-game behind the San Diego Padres for the elusive final playoff ticket in the senior circuit.

Beginning this afternoon, the Reds open a three-game set in Chicago today versus the Cubs; the Friars will have the Labor Day holiday off before hosting the Los Angeles Angels for a brief two-game series beginning Tuesday night.

As far as the other teams contending for the second Wild Card berth, their week will begin with a great deal of difficulty. The division rival St. Louis Cardinals host the Los Angeles Dodgers, while the Philadelphia Phillies open a set in Milwaukee. This will be one of the few times all season where Reds Country should become huge Brewers fans.

Cincinnati will be making their final 2021 visit to the Friendly Confines to battle the Cubs. Chicago has played excellent baseball recently, winning six in a row. This should come as no surprise to the Redlegs, who dropped two of three to the North Siders during their last trip to Great American Ball Park.

The Reds have already clinched the season series against the Cubs (63-75) by winning 10 of the previous 16 contests between the NL Central division rivals. Additionally, Cincinnati holds a 4-3 advantage in the Windy City during the 2021 campaign.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Cubs

Sonny Gray (7-6 3.89 ERA) gets the holiday start as the Cubs counter with Justin Steele (3-2 3.48 ERA) this afternoon. Over his last three starts, the Cincinnati right-hander has been nothing less than sensational.

Tossing 18 innings, Gray has allowed two runs on six hits while recording 14 strikeouts. The Vanderbilt alum has faced the Cubs once this season and turned in an excellent performance, surrendering just one run in five frames with eight punch outs. A similar start today will do wonders for the Reds’ confidence.

Reds Country has been told time, and again the ballclub struggles against left-handed starters. However, the Redlegs have won two of their last three when facing southpaw hurlers, and for the season, they have an 18-14 mark versus lefties. One of those wins came against today’s starter Justin Steele who Cincinnati defeated on August 16th at GABP.

Tuesday night finds Wade Miley (11-5 2.97 ERA) toeing the rubber opposing Adrian Sampson (0-1 1.59 ERA) of the Cubs. To say Miley’s last outing was poor would be an understatement.

The Cajun was rocked for a whopping 12 hits and five runs in four brutal innings his last time out versus the St. Louis Cardinals. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but over his career, the month of September is far and away his worst month. Lifetime the Reds southpaw is 12-17 with a troubling 5.54 ERA.

Adrian Sampson will be making his first start since tossing four innings of one-run baseball against the Reds on August 18th in the Queen City. In his last appearance, the 29-year-old right-hander was effective, hurling 3.1 shutout frames in relief versus the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday.

Wednesday night’s series and season finale between the two clubs will feature Vladimir Gutierrez (9-6 4.17 ERA) battling Chicago’s Alec Mills (6-6 4.25 ERA). Has Gutierrez hit the wall? His last two starts have raised major concerns.

After becoming the first Reds’ pitcher in eight years to hurl six consecutive starts allowing two earned runs or fewer, the Cuban has not escaped the fourth innings in his previous two starts surrendering 11 hits and eight earned runs.

Between Cincinnati and Louisville this season, he’s worked 116.1 frames. The right-hander’s workload could become an issue down the stretch as the Redlegs fight for a postseason berth.

The Reds and Alec Mills are on a first-name basis. This will be the Cubs’ right-hander’s sixth start versus Cincinnati since July of last year. Don’t expect to see Eugenio Suárez in the starting lineup Wednesday night. Geno is 2-for-19 with nine punch outs against the University of Tennessee-Martin alum.

The Reds’ right fielder is tied in the race for the NL batting crown.

The year was 1973. That’s the last time a Cincinnati Red captured the batting crown in the National League. Pete Rose collected his third and final batting title in addition to his one and only MVP award while leading the Reds to their third division title in four seasons that year.

As we hit Labor Day, Nick Castellanos finds himself in a dead heat with the Los Angeles Dodgers Trea Turner for the top spot with a .320 average. The battle for the hitting crown has become a two-man race as Cincinnati’s Jesse Winker’s .307 batting average occupies the third slot in the senior circuit.

If Castellanos can outlast Turner, it could be part of a trend in ending long hardware draughts for the Redlegs. Last year, a Reds player won the NL Cy Young Award for the first time in franchise history, while second baseman Jonathan India has an opportunity to be the first Redleg position player since Chris Sabo in 1988 to be named Rookie of the Year.

While we’re on the subject of postseason awards, don’t sleep on Reds’ manager David Bell. If Cincinnati’s third-year manager is recognized, he’ll be the first Cincinnati skipper to ever take home the top prize since the award’s inception in 1983.

Prediction

To say the Reds need to win this series in the worst way doesn’t begin to give justice to the sense of urgency this club desperately needs. More than likely, the second NL Wild Card berth will be decided by the team that can rattle off a string of victories in a week or 10-day timeframe.

There’s no reason that team can’t be Cincinnati. The last time the Reds and Cubs met, the North Sider had lost 11 in a row when they visited GABP.  This time Chicago is the winner of six consecutive contests. Look for that streak to come to a screeching halt today as the Reds take the opener en route to capturing two of three at Wrigley Field.