Reds vs. Tigers: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

Reds close homestand with their first look at the 2021 Detroit Tigers.

Reds Country, nobody said it would be easy. After dropping four in a row, the Cincinnati Reds (72-63) salvaged the final contest of their three-game series versus the St. Louis Cardinals by crushing four homers in a 12-2 drubbing of the Redbirds. However, the race has tightened significantly for the second and final Wild Card berth in the National League.

Entering play this evening, the Redlegs are clinging to a half-game lead over the San Diego Padres for a postseason berth. But, unfortunately, the Friars aren’t the only team creeping up from behind.

A resurgent Philadelphia Phillies ballclub overcame a six-run deficit yesterday against the Washington Nationals to collect their sixth consecutive victory and trail the Redlegs by just two games with the aforementioned Cardinals 2.5 games back in the Wild Card race. In other words, it’s going to be a stressful September.

For the Reds to create some breathing room, they have to start playing better baseball immediately. Cincinnati has lost three consecutive series and are 3-6 in their last nine contests.  However, help may be on the way in the form of this weekend’s opponent, the Detroit Tigers.

Detroit (63-72) has lost six of their last eight and are just 28-37 outside of Motown. But don’t take the Tigers too lightly. Since late July, they’ve dropped only one road series and are two games over .500 overall following a dreadful April.

Lifetime these two clubs could not be more evenly matched. The Reds and Tigers have split their 32 contests, with both clubs going 8-8 in each other’s ballpark. As you guessed, the two teams split their six contests a year ago.

The Reds are hopeful to keep the Tigers’ offense caged.

Much like Berry Gordy and Motown Records, hits are hard to come by for the Detroit Tigers. Entering play yesterday, the Tigers offensive unit is slashing .241/.306/.398, which is below the .244/.315/.412 American League average across the board.

An area in which the Tigers truly struggle is hitting the long ball. Their 153 round-trippers are the third-fewest in the AL. Only left fielder Robbie Grossman has topped the 20 homer mark on the season. However, 80 of the club’s home runs have come outside spacious Comerica Park.

In his 14th season in the Motor City, Miguel Cabrera is not quite enjoying the season as his living legend counterpart Joey Votto. The Tigers’ 38-year-old DH is slashing a pedestrian .250/.315/.394 with 15 homers, and 61 RBIs in his 19th big league campaign.

Even though the Tigers pitching staff’s average age of 27.4 is the second youngest in the American League, the future appears bright in the Motor City. The Tiger rotation has put together a solid second half of the season.

As play began yesterday, Detroit starters have compiled a post-All-Star break ERA of 4.07 in 43 games, including an impressive 3.76 mark in August. In addition, the Tigers bullpen has been exceptional of late as well, notching a 3.31 ERA last month.

However, once the young Detroit staff leaves cavernous Comerica Park, the results are underwhelming. The Tigers have been tagged for a 5.07 ERA and a ridiculously high 1.41 WHIP when they leave the Motor City.

The Reds’ former starter has found a home in the bullpen.

There’s no denying the Cincinnati Reds upgraded their bullpen before the trade deadline by acquiring Luis Cessa, Mychael Givens, and Justin Wilson. But, the true unsung hero of the bullpen in recent weeks has been right-hander Jeff Hoffman.

As a starter, the numbers were not pretty. Making 11 starts, he tossed just 45 innings while issuing a staggering 30 free passes en route to a completely unmanageable 1.67 WHIP. However, a move to the bullpen has been exactly what the doctor ordered to remedy the Reds and Hoffman.

David Bell has called upon the 28-year-old New Yorker a dozen times out of the pen, and he’s been exceptional. Hurling 18 frames, he’s fanned 24 while walking only seven and producing a microscopic 1.00 ERA with an excellent 1.11 WHIP.

Hoffman looks like a completely different pitcher in a relief role as opposed to a starter. His K/9 rate rocketed from 7.8 to 12.0, while his K/BB rate has soared from 1.30 to 3.43 once he was moved to the pen.

There’s no denying that Hoffman was one of the most maligned members of this Reds team during the early part of the 2021 season, but he’s quickly proving to be one of the more valuable Redlegs down the stretch.

Prediction

Despite the struggle of the past 10 days, Baseball-Reference remains fairly confident the Reds will be playing postseason baseball, giving them a 70.4% chance of making the playoffs. But, of course, a long way towards making the postseason would be the caging of the Tigers this weekend.

Let’s be bold. Look for the Reds to regain their footing as they sweep the three-game set from Detroit and extend their Wild Card advantage before hitting the road for a nine-game trek that includes stops against the division-rival Cubs, Cardinals, and Pirates.