Reds vs. Tigers: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

Reds close homestand with their first look at the 2021 Detroit Tigers.

Reds Country, nobody said it would be easy. After dropping four in a row, the Cincinnati Reds (72-63) salvaged the final contest of their three-game series versus the St. Louis Cardinals by crushing four homers in a 12-2 drubbing of the Redbirds. However, the race has tightened significantly for the second and final Wild Card berth in the National League.

Entering play this evening, the Redlegs are clinging to a half-game lead over the San Diego Padres for a postseason berth. But, unfortunately, the Friars aren’t the only team creeping up from behind.

A resurgent Philadelphia Phillies ballclub overcame a six-run deficit yesterday against the Washington Nationals to collect their sixth consecutive victory and trail the Redlegs by just two games with the aforementioned Cardinals 2.5 games back in the Wild Card race. In other words, it’s going to be a stressful September.

For the Reds to create some breathing room, they have to start playing better baseball immediately. Cincinnati has lost three consecutive series and are 3-6 in their last nine contests.  However, help may be on the way in the form of this weekend’s opponent, the Detroit Tigers.

Detroit (63-72) has lost six of their last eight and are just 28-37 outside of Motown. But don’t take the Tigers too lightly. Since late July, they’ve dropped only one road series and are two games over .500 overall following a dreadful April.

Lifetime these two clubs could not be more evenly matched. The Reds and Tigers have split their 32 contests, with both clubs going 8-8 in each other’s ballpark. As you guessed, the two teams split their six contests a year ago.

The Reds are hopeful to keep the Tigers’ offense caged.

Much like Berry Gordy and Motown Records, hits are hard to come by for the Detroit Tigers. Entering play yesterday, the Tigers offensive unit is slashing .241/.306/.398, which is below the .244/.315/.412 American League average across the board.

An area in which the Tigers truly struggle is hitting the long ball. Their 153 round-trippers are the third-fewest in the AL. Only left fielder Robbie Grossman has topped the 20 homer mark on the season. However, 80 of the club’s home runs have come outside spacious Comerica Park.

In his 14th season in the Motor City, Miguel Cabrera is not quite enjoying the season as his living legend counterpart Joey Votto. The Tigers’ 38-year-old DH is slashing a pedestrian .250/.315/.394 with 15 homers, and 61 RBIs in his 19th big league campaign.

Even though the Tigers pitching staff’s average age of 27.4 is the second youngest in the American League, the future appears bright in the Motor City. The Tiger rotation has put together a solid second half of the season.

As play began yesterday, Detroit starters have compiled a post-All-Star break ERA of 4.07 in 43 games, including an impressive 3.76 mark in August. In addition, the Tigers bullpen has been exceptional of late as well, notching a 3.31 ERA last month.

However, once the young Detroit staff leaves cavernous Comerica Park, the results are underwhelming. The Tigers have been tagged for a 5.07 ERA and a ridiculously high 1.41 WHIP when they leave the Motor City.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Tigers

Vladimir Gutierrez (9-5 4.03 ERA) toes the rubber in the opener as the Tigers counter with Tyler Alexander (2-2 4.34 ERA). The Cincinnati right-hander is looking to bounce back after the Miami Marlins shellacked him for five runs and seven hits in three innings during his last outing.

Nevertheless, Gutierrez has been outstanding in his seven starts compiling a 2.81 ERA in 41.2 frames. His next victory will make him the first Reds rookie to hit double digits in the win column since Scott Williamson during the 1999 season.

Detroit’s Tyler Alexander has been on quite a roll. The left-hander has held opponents to two runs or less in three of his last four appearances. However, right-handers give the Tigers southpaw trouble. Righties are slashing .284/.321/.502 with 11 bombs versus the 27-year-old Texan.

Saturday night finds Tyler Mahle (10-5 3.64 ERA) battling Matthew Boyd (3-7 3.50 ERA) of the Tigers. It was another typical strong road performance for the Cincinnati right-hander his last time out.

Tossing seven hits of two-run four-hit ball with six strikeouts, Mahle was the hard-luck loser as the Reds managed to dent the plate just once against the Marlins. The California native defeated Detroit in his only appearance against the Tigers, allowing just two runs in six frames in June 2018 at Great American Ball Park.

Don’t let the 3.50 ERA fool you; Matthew Boyd has been awful as of late. The veteran left-hander has posted a 5.45 ERA in his last seven starts and has failed to complete five innings in three of his last four outings. In addition, Joey Votto has taken the southpaw deep twice in nine at-bats lifetime.

Sunday’s matinee series finale with feature Luis Castillo (7-14 4.30 ERA) opposing Casey Mize (7-7 3.59 ERA) of Detroit. Inconsistency continues to haunt La Piedra during the 2021 campaign.

Following June and July, where he compiled ERA’s of 1.71 and 2.15, respectively, Castillo was belted around last month, surrendering more homers, five, than he had in the previous two months combined and saddled with a troubling 4.58 ERA. Looking for a positive sign? La Piedra is 5-6 with a solid 3.57 ERA when pitching in the Queen City this year.

Rookie Casey Mize is living up to the hype. The former No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft has produced a terrific 1.15 WHIP in 135.1 innings. However, he does struggle versus lefties. Left-handed batters are slashing .258/.331/.533 with 16 homers and 10 doubles against the Auburn alum.