Reds vs. Tigers: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

Reds close homestand with their first look at the 2021 Detroit Tigers.

Reds Country, nobody said it would be easy. After dropping four in a row, the Cincinnati Reds (72-63) salvaged the final contest of their three-game series versus the St. Louis Cardinals by crushing four homers in a 12-2 drubbing of the Redbirds. However, the race has tightened significantly for the second and final Wild Card berth in the National League.

Entering play this evening, the Redlegs are clinging to a half-game lead over the San Diego Padres for a postseason berth. But, unfortunately, the Friars aren’t the only team creeping up from behind.

A resurgent Philadelphia Phillies ballclub overcame a six-run deficit yesterday against the Washington Nationals to collect their sixth consecutive victory and trail the Redlegs by just two games with the aforementioned Cardinals 2.5 games back in the Wild Card race. In other words, it’s going to be a stressful September.

For the Reds to create some breathing room, they have to start playing better baseball immediately. Cincinnati has lost three consecutive series and are 3-6 in their last nine contests.  However, help may be on the way in the form of this weekend’s opponent, the Detroit Tigers.

Detroit (63-72) has lost six of their last eight and are just 28-37 outside of Motown. But don’t take the Tigers too lightly. Since late July, they’ve dropped only one road series and are two games over .500 overall following a dreadful April.

Lifetime these two clubs could not be more evenly matched. The Reds and Tigers have split their 32 contests, with both clubs going 8-8 in each other’s ballpark. As you guessed, the two teams split their six contests a year ago.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Tigers

Vladimir Gutierrez (9-5 4.03 ERA) toes the rubber in the opener as the Tigers counter with Tyler Alexander (2-2 4.34 ERA). The Cincinnati right-hander is looking to bounce back after the Miami Marlins shellacked him for five runs and seven hits in three innings during his last outing.

Nevertheless, Gutierrez has been outstanding in his seven starts compiling a 2.81 ERA in 41.2 frames. His next victory will make him the first Reds rookie to hit double digits in the win column since Scott Williamson during the 1999 season.

Detroit’s Tyler Alexander has been on quite a roll. The left-hander has held opponents to two runs or less in three of his last four appearances. However, right-handers give the Tigers southpaw trouble. Righties are slashing .284/.321/.502 with 11 bombs versus the 27-year-old Texan.

Saturday night finds Tyler Mahle (10-5 3.64 ERA) battling Matthew Boyd (3-7 3.50 ERA) of the Tigers. It was another typical strong road performance for the Cincinnati right-hander his last time out.

Tossing seven hits of two-run four-hit ball with six strikeouts, Mahle was the hard-luck loser as the Reds managed to dent the plate just once against the Marlins. The California native defeated Detroit in his only appearance against the Tigers, allowing just two runs in six frames in June 2018 at Great American Ball Park.

Don’t let the 3.50 ERA fool you; Matthew Boyd has been awful as of late. The veteran left-hander has posted a 5.45 ERA in his last seven starts and has failed to complete five innings in three of his last four outings. In addition, Joey Votto has taken the southpaw deep twice in nine at-bats lifetime.

Sunday’s matinee series finale with feature Luis Castillo (7-14 4.30 ERA) opposing Casey Mize (7-7 3.59 ERA) of Detroit. Inconsistency continues to haunt La Piedra during the 2021 campaign.

Following June and July, where he compiled ERA’s of 1.71 and 2.15, respectively, Castillo was belted around last month, surrendering more homers, five, than he had in the previous two months combined and saddled with a troubling 4.58 ERA. Looking for a positive sign? La Piedra is 5-6 with a solid 3.57 ERA when pitching in the Queen City this year.

Rookie Casey Mize is living up to the hype. The former No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft has produced a terrific 1.15 WHIP in 135.1 innings. However, he does struggle versus lefties. Left-handed batters are slashing .258/.331/.533 with 16 homers and 10 doubles against the Auburn alum.

The Reds’ former starter has found a home in the bullpen.

There’s no denying the Cincinnati Reds upgraded their bullpen before the trade deadline by acquiring Luis Cessa, Mychael Givens, and Justin Wilson. But, the true unsung hero of the bullpen in recent weeks has been right-hander Jeff Hoffman.

As a starter, the numbers were not pretty. Making 11 starts, he tossed just 45 innings while issuing a staggering 30 free passes en route to a completely unmanageable 1.67 WHIP. However, a move to the bullpen has been exactly what the doctor ordered to remedy the Reds and Hoffman.

David Bell has called upon the 28-year-old New Yorker a dozen times out of the pen, and he’s been exceptional. Hurling 18 frames, he’s fanned 24 while walking only seven and producing a microscopic 1.00 ERA with an excellent 1.11 WHIP.

Hoffman looks like a completely different pitcher in a relief role as opposed to a starter. His K/9 rate rocketed from 7.8 to 12.0, while his K/BB rate has soared from 1.30 to 3.43 once he was moved to the pen.

There’s no denying that Hoffman was one of the most maligned members of this Reds team during the early part of the 2021 season, but he’s quickly proving to be one of the more valuable Redlegs down the stretch.

Prediction

Despite the struggle of the past 10 days, Baseball-Reference remains fairly confident the Reds will be playing postseason baseball, giving them a 70.4% chance of making the playoffs. But, of course, a long way towards making the postseason would be the caging of the Tigers this weekend.

Let’s be bold. Look for the Reds to regain their footing as they sweep the three-game set from Detroit and extend their Wild Card advantage before hitting the road for a nine-game trek that includes stops against the division-rival Cubs, Cardinals, and Pirates.