Reds vs. Tigers: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

The Reds are hopeful to keep the Tigers’ offense caged.

Much like Berry Gordy and Motown Records, hits are hard to come by for the Detroit Tigers. Entering play yesterday, the Tigers offensive unit is slashing .241/.306/.398, which is below the .244/.315/.412 American League average across the board.

An area in which the Tigers truly struggle is hitting the long ball. Their 153 round-trippers are the third-fewest in the AL. Only left fielder Robbie Grossman has topped the 20 homer mark on the season. However, 80 of the club’s home runs have come outside spacious Comerica Park.

In his 14th season in the Motor City, Miguel Cabrera is not quite enjoying the season as his living legend counterpart Joey Votto. The Tigers’ 38-year-old DH is slashing a pedestrian .250/.315/.394 with 15 homers, and 61 RBIs in his 19th big league campaign.

Even though the Tigers pitching staff’s average age of 27.4 is the second youngest in the American League, the future appears bright in the Motor City. The Tiger rotation has put together a solid second half of the season.

As play began yesterday, Detroit starters have compiled a post-All-Star break ERA of 4.07 in 43 games, including an impressive 3.76 mark in August. In addition, the Tigers bullpen has been exceptional of late as well, notching a 3.31 ERA last month.

However, once the young Detroit staff leaves cavernous Comerica Park, the results are underwhelming. The Tigers have been tagged for a 5.07 ERA and a ridiculously high 1.41 WHIP when they leave the Motor City.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Tigers

Vladimir Gutierrez (9-5 4.03 ERA) toes the rubber in the opener as the Tigers counter with Tyler Alexander (2-2 4.34 ERA). The Cincinnati right-hander is looking to bounce back after the Miami Marlins shellacked him for five runs and seven hits in three innings during his last outing.

Nevertheless, Gutierrez has been outstanding in his seven starts compiling a 2.81 ERA in 41.2 frames. His next victory will make him the first Reds rookie to hit double digits in the win column since Scott Williamson during the 1999 season.

Detroit’s Tyler Alexander has been on quite a roll. The left-hander has held opponents to two runs or less in three of his last four appearances. However, right-handers give the Tigers southpaw trouble. Righties are slashing .284/.321/.502 with 11 bombs versus the 27-year-old Texan.

Saturday night finds Tyler Mahle (10-5 3.64 ERA) battling Matthew Boyd (3-7 3.50 ERA) of the Tigers. It was another typical strong road performance for the Cincinnati right-hander his last time out.

Tossing seven hits of two-run four-hit ball with six strikeouts, Mahle was the hard-luck loser as the Reds managed to dent the plate just once against the Marlins. The California native defeated Detroit in his only appearance against the Tigers, allowing just two runs in six frames in June 2018 at Great American Ball Park.

Don’t let the 3.50 ERA fool you; Matthew Boyd has been awful as of late. The veteran left-hander has posted a 5.45 ERA in his last seven starts and has failed to complete five innings in three of his last four outings. In addition, Joey Votto has taken the southpaw deep twice in nine at-bats lifetime.

Sunday’s matinee series finale with feature Luis Castillo (7-14 4.30 ERA) opposing Casey Mize (7-7 3.59 ERA) of Detroit. Inconsistency continues to haunt La Piedra during the 2021 campaign.

Following June and July, where he compiled ERA’s of 1.71 and 2.15, respectively, Castillo was belted around last month, surrendering more homers, five, than he had in the previous two months combined and saddled with a troubling 4.58 ERA. Looking for a positive sign? La Piedra is 5-6 with a solid 3.57 ERA when pitching in the Queen City this year.

Rookie Casey Mize is living up to the hype. The former No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft has produced a terrific 1.15 WHIP in 135.1 innings. However, he does struggle versus lefties. Left-handed batters are slashing .258/.331/.533 with 16 homers and 10 doubles against the Auburn alum.

The Reds’ former starter has found a home in the bullpen.

There’s no denying the Cincinnati Reds upgraded their bullpen before the trade deadline by acquiring Luis Cessa, Mychael Givens, and Justin Wilson. But, the true unsung hero of the bullpen in recent weeks has been right-hander Jeff Hoffman.

As a starter, the numbers were not pretty. Making 11 starts, he tossed just 45 innings while issuing a staggering 30 free passes en route to a completely unmanageable 1.67 WHIP. However, a move to the bullpen has been exactly what the doctor ordered to remedy the Reds and Hoffman.

David Bell has called upon the 28-year-old New Yorker a dozen times out of the pen, and he’s been exceptional. Hurling 18 frames, he’s fanned 24 while walking only seven and producing a microscopic 1.00 ERA with an excellent 1.11 WHIP.

Hoffman looks like a completely different pitcher in a relief role as opposed to a starter. His K/9 rate rocketed from 7.8 to 12.0, while his K/BB rate has soared from 1.30 to 3.43 once he was moved to the pen.

There’s no denying that Hoffman was one of the most maligned members of this Reds team during the early part of the 2021 season, but he’s quickly proving to be one of the more valuable Redlegs down the stretch.

Prediction

Despite the struggle of the past 10 days, Baseball-Reference remains fairly confident the Reds will be playing postseason baseball, giving them a 70.4% chance of making the playoffs. But, of course, a long way towards making the postseason would be the caging of the Tigers this weekend.

Let’s be bold. Look for the Reds to regain their footing as they sweep the three-game set from Detroit and extend their Wild Card advantage before hitting the road for a nine-game trek that includes stops against the division-rival Cubs, Cardinals, and Pirates.