3 early contract extensions the Reds should pursue

Which Reds players might receive a contract extension in the coming weeks?

It’s not uncommon for players and teams to negotiate contract extensions at this time of year. We’ve seen Yadier Molina, Travis d’Arnaud, Jonathan Schoop, Brandon Crawford, and Lance Lynn all sign new deals since the All-Star break. The Cincinnati Reds have several players they should consider signing longterm, but these three should be atop the list.

A small-market franchise like the Reds will be looking to maximize their investment. It’s not as if every team in Major League Baseball doesn’t try to do the same thing, but the margin for error is much less for Cincinnati.

Essentially, the Reds cannot afford to miss. We’re seeing the impact this season with players like Mike Moustakas (signed a four-year/$64M contract prior to the 2020 season), Shogo Akiyama (signed a three-year/$21M contract prior to the 2020 season), and Eugenio Suárez (signed a six-year/$66M contract extension in 2018) struggling to play up to their contacts.

The result is, the Cincinnati Reds have $30M-plus this season invested in a trio of players that are collectively hitting .162 on the season. Yes, Moustakas has spent a considerable amount of time on the IL, Akiyama has been reduced to a defensive replacement, and the Suárez at shortstop experiment was a colossal failure.

The bottom line is, Cincinnati must hit the bullseye if they offer a contract extension to any of their current crop of players. The Reds have several players who are eligible for arbitration and a handful who’ll become free agents this winter. There are also a couple Redlegs who have team and or player options available this offseason. Who should be Cincinnati’s top targets to sign an early contract extension?

1. Jesse Winker, Reds outfielder

Jesse Winker should unequivocally be the Cincinnati Reds No. 1 choice when it comes to discussing a contract extension. Winker proved in 2020 that he could hit left-handed pitching, and the Reds starting left fielder has proven this season that he can carry the load offensively.

Though currently on the injured list, Winker is third in the league in OPS (.954), on-base percentage, and doubles (32). Winker has 22 home runs on the season. Winker’s 2021 season has seen him post the best numbers of his career and earn his first trip to the Midsummer Classic.

Signing Jesse Winker to a long-term extension is a no-brainer for the Reds front office. Whether they get the deal done prior to the completion of the 2021 season or over the winter, the bottom line is – it must get done.

Winker is under team control for another two seasons. The 28-year-old took signed a one-year/$3.15M contract prior to the 2021 season and you can bet through arbitration that his 2022 salary will likely double.

While I’d definitely stop short of putting Winker in the same class as Ronald Acuña Jr., Juan Soto, Kris Bryant, the Buffalo native is very deserving of a multi-year contract that pays him among the best at his position. His running mate Nick Castellanos signed a four-year/$64M contract in 2020, but that was as a free agent. Winker’s AAV shouldn’t match Castellanos’, but it’s in the ballpark.

2. Tyler Mahle, Reds pitcher

It’s anyone’s guess as to what the Cincinnati Reds starting rotation will look like in 2022. Cincinnati has two top prospects (Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene) who are likely to join the rotation next season and every single starter currently in the rotation is under team control heading into 2022. The one pitcher who should undoubtedly be in next year’s starting rotation is Tyler Mahle.

Mahle isn’t going to wow you with his stats, but the right-hander has put together a very solid season and has the makeup of a middle-of-the-rotation starter who can be a reliable piece of the Cincinnati rotation for years to come.

Mahle is second on the team in WAR (4.3) this season, trailing only All-Star snub Wade Miley. Among the Reds’ starting pitchers, Mahle is first in strikeouts (174) and WHIP (1.180) and second in ERA (3.64), ERA+ (131), and innings pitched.

For those who want to make the argument of extending Luis Castillo over Tyler Mahle, take these factors into consideration. Mahle is two years younger than Castillo. In fact, La Piedra will be 31 years old upon entering free agency after the 2023 season.

Castillo also holds much more appeal on the trade market. With Lodolo and Green likely to be part of the Cincinnati Reds starting rotation next season, Nick Krall may have to find a new home for one or more of his current starting pitchers. Castillo was rumored to be of interest to several teams last offseason, and you’d think the same would hold true this winter.

Mahle was also not command the type of salary that Castillo would expect. What a contract extension for Tyler Mahle might look like is anyone’s guess. German Marquez, though more accomplished and younger than Mahle, signed a five-year/$43M extension in 2019 might be best comparison for the Reds’ right-hander.