Reds vs. Brewers: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

The Reds and Brewers meet for the final time in the 2021 season.

How we looking, Reds Country? Following a potentially disastrous series loss to a terrible Chicago Cubs squad, the Cincinnati Reds (69-57) rebounded by sweeping a four-game set from the Miami Marlins to salvage the homestand with a 5-2 record last week.

As a result, with some help from the Colorado Rockies and Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati has vaulted into the second and final Wild Card spot in the National League with a one-game advantage over the San Diego Padres. Can the Reds possibly hold off the Friars and play meaningful baseball in October?

Experts around the league like the Redlegs’ chances. Fangraphs gives the Reds a 63.8% chance of making the postseason, while Baseball-Reference is even more bullish on Cincinnati. They give the Redlegs 74.1% odds of making the playoffs. So it’s okay to get excited Reds Country.

However, this week, another challenge awaits the Reds as they charge into American Family Field for a final 2021 showdown with the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers. The Beer Makers (76-49) hold a 7.5 game advantage over Cincinnati in the division, and this is the Reds’ last realistic chance to make a play for the division crown.

It’s no secret why the two teams occupy the top spots in the NL Central. Both have obliterated their division rivals. Cincinnati is a staggering 35-20 versus division foes, while the Brewers are even better with a 40-20 mark.

The two clubs have split their first 16 contests this year, and they’ve done it in unconventional fashion. Milwaukee is 7-2 at Great American Ball Park, while the Reds have returned the favor by winning six of seven on the Brewers’ home turf.

The Brew Crew have consistently been the class of the NL Central.

For the past 95 days, the Milwaukee Brewers have sat atop the division standings. After falling a season-high two games under .500 on May 21st following a loss to the Cincinnati Reds, the Brew Crew have gone 55-26 without much of a challenge for division supremacy.

The Beer Makers had a sizzling June going 19-8 and have been just as good in August, compiling a 14-6 record. Winners of 20 of their past 30 contests, Milwaukee is an outstanding 23-10 since the All-Star break.

Baseball-Reference gives the Brewers a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs. Barring a complete collapse, it will be their fourth consecutive trip to the postseason. Manager Craig Counsell has amassed an impressive 510-461 mark in his seven seasons at the helm.

Believe it or not, when the Brewers have displayed vulnerability this year, it’s when they’re playing in front of their home crowd. Even though their .548 winning percentage at home is nothing to scoff at, it pales in comparison to their blistering .667 winning mark on the road.

A familiar face will almost certainly see his first action against the Cincinnati Reds since late May. Former All-Star and Gold Glove winner Lorenzo Cain missed nearly two months with a strained right hamstring.

Since returning from the IL, the 12-year veteran is slashing .279/.315/.412 with two homers, 14 RBIs, and five stolen bases in 19 games. Needless to say, the hamstring seems to be feeling just fine.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Brewers

Tyler Mahle (10-4 3.78 ERA) is on the bump tonight as he faces Corbin Burnes (8-4 2.13 ERA) of the Brewers. It was a dreadful performance for Mahle in his outing versus the Chicago Cubs as the North Siders torched him for eight hits and five runs in five innings of work at GABP. However, get Mahle out of the Queen City, and good things tend to happen.

This season, the Cincinnati right-hander is a sparkling 7-1 with a microscopic 1.86 ERA in 13 road starts. The Milwaukee Brewers can attest to Mahle’s greatness on the road this season.

Making two appearances at American Family Field in 2021, Mahle has limited the Brew Crew to four runs on seven hits while fanning 18 in a dozen innings. In addition, the California native has worn out former MVP Christian Yelich by punching him out six times in 12 career at-bats.

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How good has All-Star Corbin Burnes been recently? In his last three starts, he’s allowed one run in 21 frames while recording 23 strikeouts. The right-hander dominated Cincinnati last month, hurling 8.1 shutout innings and whiffing a dozen Redlegs. So it goes without saying, Tyler Mahle will need to be at his best tonight.

On Wednesday night, David Bell hands the ball to Luis Castillo (7-12 4.35 ERA) as he opposes Brandon Woodruff (7-7 2.48 ERA). La Piedra was magnificent his last time out, coming off consecutive losses to the Cleveland Indians and Philadelphia Phillies.

Tossing seven innings of one-run ball, he mowed down seven Marlins in the series opener Thursday night. However, even though Castillo has been wildly erratic this season, the Beer Makers seem to bring out the best in him in their recent meetings.

In his last three starts versus Milwaukee, La Piedra has yielded one run in 18.1 innings with 21 K’s.  Remarkably, this will be his sixth start against the Brewers this season. Therefore, introductions will not be necessary.

All-Star Brandon Woodruff was hammered in his last trip to the mound. Working five frames versus the St. Louis Cardinals, the right-hander was tagged for eight hits, including two round-trippers and six runs.

Over his last five starts against the Reds, Woodruff has fanned 34 in just 27.1 innings. However, his powers are useless when facing Joey Votto. The 37-year-old MVP candidate is slashing .318/.348/.591 with two homers versus the Mississippi State alum.

Thursday’s matinee series finale features Sonny Gray (5-6 4.15 ERA) battling Brett Anderson (4-7 4.15 ERA) of the Brewers. In his last outing, it was a vintage Sonny Gray performance as he tossed seven frames of one-hit shutout baseball.

This will be the Cincinnati right-hander’s fourth time facing the Brew Crew in 2021, and much like his season overall, the results have been a mixed bag. Working  13.2 innings, he’s allowed eight runs but has struck out 19 Beer Makers. Here’s hoping Gray’s last start was a harbinger for the remainder of the season.

Brett Anderson embarrassed the Reds in their last meeting. The southpaw punched out nine Redlegs in seven frames. This coming from a pitcher who only has 51 K’s in 82.1 innings this season. Cincinnati must prove that start was a mirage and jump all over this soft tosser Thursday afternoon.