Reds vs. Cardinals: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

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CINCINNATI, OHIO – JULY 20: Joey Votto #19 of the Cincinnati Reds walks across the field. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

The Reds look to salvage their homestand as the Cardinals visit.

Heading into the All-Star break, the Cincinnati Reds (49-47) were the hottest team in baseball. Winning eight of their last 10 games before the Midsummer Classic, the Redlegs had narrowed the Milwaukee Brewers’ lead in the National League Central Division to just four games.

Fast forward a week into the second half of the 2021 campaign, and the Reds have fallen back to Earth with a resounding thud. Cincinnati has dropped five of six coming out of the break at Great American Ball Park and are now faced with a 6.5 game deficit. But, in all honesty, the Reds are fortunate to be that close.

What has gone wrong to start the second half? In a word, everything. Outside of excellent starts from Luis Castillo and Wade Miley, the starting pitching has been shaky at best. In addition, the bullpen has surrendered multiple leads, while the defense continues to be anything but sure-handed.

As if all of that wasn’t enough to make your blood pressure rise, news broke yesterday that right fielder Nick Castellanos could be lost for multiple weeks with a microfracture of his right wrist suffered in the first game following the All-Star break after being hit by a pitch courtesy of Milwaukee’s Adrian Houser.

Chances are the St. Louis Cardinals (49-48) will not shed any tears for the Redlegs. The Redbirds currently have three starting pitchers Jack Flaherty, Carlos Martinez, and Miles Mikolas, on the IL. As a result, the three hurlers the Cardinals are tossing at the Reds this weekend are not exactly Cy Young candidates. More on them later.

Cincinnati owns a 6-4 record against the Cardinals this season, including a four-game sweep of the Redbirds the last time they met in early June at Busch Stadium. This will be St. Louis’ second of three visits to the Queen City this year.

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – JULY 06: Paul Goldschmidt #46 of the St. Louis Cardinals celebrates in the dugout. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images) /

Despite injuries, the Cardinals are soaring of late.

Give St. Louis manager Mike Shildt credit. The Cards skipper has had to navigate his ballclub through more than their fair share of injuries and has the Redbirds relevant in the National League Central.

Entering yesterday, the Cardinals are 12-8 over their last 20 contests and have done most of their damage at home. St. Louis is 27-20 at home, but once the Birds fly away from Busch Stadium, they come crashing to the ground.

The Redbirds are a miserable 21-28 away from home this season, including an embarrassing 2-9 mark on the road in June. However, St. Louis has bounced back on the road this month, winning five of their nine contests.

One of the reasons the Cardinals have been playing better baseball of late has been the performance of first base Paul Goldschmidt. As play began yesterday, Goldy is slashing .322/.404/.575 with six homers, and 15 RBIs over his last 22 games.

However, the Redlegs have been more successful than any other team in the NL Central containing the six-time All-Star. Goldschmidt’s career numbers of 14 round-trippers and 41 RBIs versus Cincinnati are his fewest against any division foe.

Second baseman Tommy Edman has struggled mightily over the last four weeks producing a paltry .213/.250/.338 slash line. Despite an OBP of just .299 and making the second most outs in the senior circuit, Edman leads the NL with 380 at-bats. Some friendly advice to manager Mike Shildt from a Reds fan…keep playing Tommy Edman.

CINCINNATI, OHIO – JUNE 26: Luis Castillo #58 of the Cincinnati Reds walks off the field. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images) /

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Cardinals.

Tyler Mahle (7-3 3.93 ERA) gets the call in the opener for the Cincinnati Reds, squaring off against veteran Wade LeBlanc (0-2 4.31 ERA) of the Cardinals. The last six weeks have been a struggle for the Reds right-hander.

Over his last seven starts, Mahle has compiled a 4.93 ERA and failed to pitch more than six innings in any outing. However, it’s not all bad news. The 26-year-old right-hander has fanned 54 batters in his last 38.1 frames.

Looking for a good omen? The California native has dominated the Redbirds in two starts this season. Tossing a dozen innings, Mahle has punched out a staggering 17 Cardinals while earning victories in each appearance.

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Wade LeBlanc will be making his first start against Cincinnati since the 2013 campaign. How desperate are the Cardinals for healthy arms? The 13-year veteran has been released by three teams already this season. Advantage, Redlegs.

The hottest pitcher in the Cincinnati rotation, Luis Castillo (3-10 4.39 ERA), takes the mound Saturday night facing the Redbirds Jake Woodford (2-1 4.06 ERA). There’s no other way to say it; La Piedra has simply been dominant over the last six weeks.

Castillo’s ERA is just 1.41 in seven starts since June 15th. Covering 44.2 frames, La Piedrs has allowed just 31 hits and one long ball. One Cardinal not thrilled to hear the change in Castillo’s fortunes is catcher Yadier Molina.

The St. Louis backstop is 4-for-23 lifetime versus the Reds right-hander. As a matter of fact, Molina has not collected a hit off Castillo since the 2018 season and is hitless in his last 11 at-bats when facing the 28-year-old Dominican.

Jake Woodford is making just his second start of the season. He’ll be best remembered by Reds Country for having Nick Castellanos hovering over him after scoring on a wild pitch during the second game of the season, which cleared the benches leading to a suspension for the Reds slugger.

Sunday’s matinee series finale will feature Sonny Gray (2-5 3.65 ERA) battling Johan Oviedo (0-5 4,81 ERA) of the Cardinals. Gray is looking to bounce back after things unraveled quickly in the fifth inning of this last start in a shutout loss to Milwaukee.

The Vanderbilt alum failed to escape the fifth as he allowed five runs on six hits while also issuing four free passes. So let’s be kind and call it a forgettable outing. When it comes to the Cardinals, Gray is intimately familiar with poor performances.

In his last two starts against the Redbirds, the right-hander has lasted a total of 4.2 innings, allowing 11 runs on as many hits. Gray is seeking his first victory versus St. Louis since August of 2019.

Speaking of first victories, Johan Oviedo is still searching for his elusive first MLB victory. One thing Oviedo has had plenty of is opportunities. The 23-year-old Cuban is winless in 17 career starts. Here’s hoping that streak is extended at least one more start.

CINCINNATI, OHIO – JUNE 26: Jonathan India #6 of the Cincinnati Reds runs to home base to score. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images) /

Rookie second baseman has been a revelation for the Reds.

What more can you say about Jonathan India? As spring training opened this year, the chances of him making the Opening Day roster appeared to be slim to none, at best. However, the former first-rounder out of the University of Florida could not be stopped at the plate in Goodyear, AZ, and it’s continued into his rookie campaign in the big leagues.

Since moving into the leadoff spot in the batting order, he’s been the best to occupy the spot since Shin-Soo Choo was a member of the Reds in 2013. In 40 games at the top of the order, India has produced an incredible .433 on-base percentage and scored 32 runs. When leading off the game, he’s been even better, compiling an unimaginable .525 OBP.

Currently, India ranks fourth in the National League in OBP and eighth in base on balls. So how is the former third baseman adjusting to second base? India leads NL second baseman in putouts and ranks fourth in assists. Not too shabby.

Cincinnati has not had a Rookie of the Year since reliever Scott Williamson took home the prize for his 1999 debut season, and a Reds position player hasn’t won the award since Chris Sabo in 1988. Battling the likes of fellow rookies Ian Anderson, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Trevor Rogers, there’s no doubt India has plenty of competition for bragging rights. However, no rookie has impacted his club the way India’s play has ignited the Reds’ offense.

Prediction

The Reds need this series in the worst way. Dropping five of six to open the homestand is an absolute nightmare. Thankfully, the Cardinals are coming to town to ease the Redlegs’ troubles.

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Cincinnati has a decisive advantage in the pitching matchups for each game of this series. Expect to see manager David Bell ride his starters as long as humanly possible to reduce exposing his suspect bullpen. Let’s be bold! Look for the Reds to sweep the Cardinals and head to Chicago to face the Cubs with newfound momentum.

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