Reds: 5 bold predictions for the second-half of the 2021 MLB season

1. Reds outfielder Nick Castellanos wins the NL batting title.

There’s a good chance that Nick Castellanos could be battling it out with his teammate, Jesse Winker, for the National League batting title. In the end, I expect Nick to get it done. Only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays has a higher batting average in all of baseball, and the Pirates’ Adam Frazier is Castellanos’ closest competition in the NL.

Castellanos currently leads the National League with a .331 batting average. Frazier is hot on his tail, hitting .330 during the first-half of the season. Frazier, however, could very easily find his way out of the National League prior to the trade deadline, as the Pirates’ second baseman is bound to have some trade interest.

Removing Frazier from the NL all together would certainly improve Castellanos’ chances, as the second-closest competition behind Frazier is Nationals’ shortstop Trea Turner who’s currently hitting .318.

Nick Castellanos will definitely have to earn the batting title, but if the first-half of the 2021 season is any indication, I’m pretty sure he’s not going to have any problem meeting that challenge head-on. Castellanos has arguably been the Reds’ most clutch hitter all season, and while Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 28 homers are 10 better than Castellanos’, the triple-crown is still in play.

Castellanos can opt out of his contact with the Reds after the season. Seeing as how he’s shown himself to be one of the best hitters in baseball, that $32M he’s owed over the next two seasons could easily look more like $50M. Castellanos has every reason on the planet to continue to produce; both to help his team win and to boost his earning potential this offseason.

2. Eugenio Suarez will lead the Reds in home runs and RBIs.

It’s been feast of famine for Eugenio Suarez in 2021. After posting a slash line of just .202/.312/.470 last season, Geno’s first-half of the 2021 season has been inconsistent to say the least. The Cincinnati Reds’ infielder is hitting just .175 on the season and leads the team in strikeouts (107). Geno trails only Javier Baez for the league-lead in punch outs.

However, the power is still there. Suarez set a goal of 50 home runs in 2021. Sitting at just 18 at the midway point of the 2021 season, that goal seems a bit unattainable. However, I do expect Eugenio Suarez to tap into that power in the second-half of the season.

Look for Geno to be seeing red when the second-half of the 2021 season begins on Friday. Over his last seven games, Suarez is slugging .407. He’s launched two balls into the seats during that time, including a homer off the un-hittable Josh Hader of the Milwaukee Brewers.

No one is ever going to mistake Eugenio Suarez for Joey Votto. Where Votto takes pride in his keen ability to read pitches and know the strike zone, Suarez has always been a free-swinger. Geno led the league in strikeouts (189) the same season he hit 49 homers.

I predict that Suarez will kick it up a notch in the second-half of the 2021 season. Look for Geno to lead the Cincinnati Reds in home runs and RBIs by the time the season concludes. While I’m not going to promise that Suarez will finish the season with a .275 batting average, I do expect that he’ll be hitting around .225 by the time the 2021 season concludes.

3. Reds pitcher Luis Castillo lowers his ERA below 3.00.

As The Office’s Michael Scott once said, “It takes a big man to admit his mistakes, and I am that big man.” All kidding aside, I have no problem eating crow when it comes to my early-season criticism of Reds’ Opening Day starter Luis Castillo. La Piedra has turned things around.

Over his last eight starts, Castillo posted a 1.97 ERA and has allowed opposing batters to hit just .171 during that span. Castillo has struck out 48 batters over the last 50 innings in which he’s pitched, and he’s only allowed two balls to leave the yard.

Aside from Trevor Bauer, Luis Castillo was the Reds best starting pitcher in 2020. La Piedra performed exceedingly well in his first playoff start, and most fans expected that level of dominance to carry over to the 2021 season.

Well, it took the better part of two months, but Castillo appears to have figured things out. Castillo’s ERA, which was sitting at 7.71 on May 13th, has shrunk to 4.65. Through those first eight games, Castillo had just 29 punch outs and only one game with six strikeouts or more. Since then, Castillo has 67 Ks in 11 games and has struck out six or more batters seven times.

What we’ve seen from Luis Castillo recently is exactly the type of pitcher the Cincinnati Reds need him to be if they hope to compete for the NL Central crown down the stretch. That said, I believe Castillo will continue to dominate in the coming months and post the lowest ERA of his career.

Prior to this season, Castillo’s best ERA was the 3.12 he put up in his rookie season in which he started just 15 games. Last season, Castillo posted a 3.21 ERA, but only made 11 starts due to the coronavirus pandemic. By the time the 2021 season is up, I expect Castillo to have an ERA below 3.00.

4. Reds reliever Michael Lorenzen records 10 saves.

The Cincinnati Reds had hoped to see Michael Lorenzen occupy a spot in the starting rotation during the 2021 season. However, a shoulder injury has prevented Lorenzen from appearing in a major league game thus far. Look for Lorenzen to return to the team on Friday and add some much needed stability to the Cincinnati bullpen.

I love the idea of Lorenzen as a starting pitcher. I don’t know that Lorenzen would rival Angels’ superstars as the best two-way player in baseball, but Lorenzen does have a unique skillset that would allow him to hit, pitch, and play the field.

That said, David Bell has already said that Mikey Biceps will be headed to the Reds bullpen upon his return. That is welcome news from Reds fans who’ve seen Cincinnati field one of the worst bullpens in the league.

When the Reds decided to trade Raisel Iglesias this offseason and also non-tender Archie Bradley, I think that most in the front office and the fanbase believed that Amir Garrett was ready to be the team’s closer. Obviously that was wishful thinking. AG is sporing a 6.51 ERA and three blown saves.

Enter Michael Lorenzen, who has proven year after year to be one of Cincinnati’s best hurlers. Even when Tejay Antone returns from the IL, I expect Lorenzen to get a majority of the high-leverage situations. Mikey Biceps will be Bell’s most reliable reliever late in games and notch a career-high 10 saves over the final two-plus months of the season.

5. Reds manager David Bell receives a contract extension.

This may be a tough one for some folks throughout Reds Country to swallow, but David Bell will receive a contract extension before the end of the season. Bell signed a three-year deal in 2019 with a team-option for the 2022 season. I fully expect the Reds brass to pick up that option, and perhaps even sign Bell to a multi-year extension.

We can sit back and discuss the successes and failures of David Bell until the cows come home, but the fact of the matter is, Bell has done a masterful job keeping this team afloat in 2021, especially when you consider what he’s had to work with.

Let’s start with the injuries. Had you told me before the season that two of the Reds five starters would start the season on the IL, Joey Votto would miss a month with a broken thumb, Mike Moustakas would plays in only 28 games, and Sonny Gray would make three separate trips to the injured list, I’d tell you there’s no way the Reds would even sniff .500 at the All-Star break.

Furthermore, if you’d told me before the season began that Raisel Iglesias and Archie Bradley would no longer be part of the bullpen, Luis Castillo would be sitting on 10 losses and a 4.65 ERA, Shogo Akiyama would start only 14 games, and the Reds’ most reliable reliever was Heath Hembree, I wouldn’t have tuned in to single game.

But look at what David Bell has done. The Cincinnati skipper has fabricated this squad into a cohesive unit that’s playing winning baseball in the month of July. Stopping looking for reasons to despise David Bell, and embrace the new day and age we find ourselves in.

Were it not for the success of Gabe Kapler and the San Francisco Giants, Bell would be a shoe-in for Manager of the Year at the midway point of the season. It’s time to die credit where credit is due, and it’s time for the Cincinnati Reds to work out a new contract with David Bell.