Reds Draft: 3 below-slot players Cincinnati should target in Round 1

The Cincinnati Reds have three of the first 35 picks in the 2021 MLB Draft, meaning General Manager Nick Krall and the front office may look to find a below-slot deal in Round 1. Doing so would allow the Reds to use the savings from the No. 17 overall pick on their second (No. 30) and third picks (No. 35).

Trevor Bauer left Cincinnati this past offseason to sign a record contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, the Reds extended a qualifying offer to Bauer, meaning the organization would receive draft compensation if the Cy Young Award winner signed elsewhere. The 30th-overall pick in the draft represents what Cincinnati received in return for losing Bauer.

The 35th-overall pick also fell to Cincinnati courtesy of the competitive balance draft picks. Per MLB.com, the picks, implemented in the 2012-2016 collective bargaining agreement, are assigned to the 10 lowest revenue clubs based on a formula that takes into consideration revenue and winning percentage.

Having three of the first 35 picks in this year’s MLB Draft will enable the Reds to be a bit creative. Cincinnati ($11,905,700) will have more bonus pool money than nearly every other franchise in Major League Baseball. Only the Pittsburgh Pirates, Detroit Tigers, and Texas Rangers have been allotted more bonus pool money in this year’s MLB Draft.

With all that in mind, it may behoove the Cincinnati Reds to select a below-slot value player with their first pick, and use the money they saved in Round 1 to land a skilled prospect whom they may have to go above slot value to sign with the 30th or 35th pick in the 2021 MLB Draft. With all that in mind, let’s take a lot at three below-slot value prospect Cincinnati should target in Round 1.

1. The Reds should target Ole Miss pitcher Gunnar Hoglund in the MLB Draft.

Typically, going after a pitcher who’s just undergone Tommy John surgery is not a sound strategy. However, given that the Cincinnati Reds have three of the first 35 picks in this year’s MLB Draft, taking a high-risk/ high-reward prospect with the 17th-overall selection might not be a bad idea. Gunnar Hoglund, a starter at Ole Miss, should be targeted by the Reds in Round 1.

Before going under the knife, Hoglund owned a 2.87 ERA in 11 starts with a 0.91 WHIP and 96 strikeouts in 62.2 innings this spring. Hoglund was one of the top pitchers in the Southeastern Conference, but that all came to screeching halt in May when an elbow injury led to Tommy John surgery that likely won’t Hoglund back on the bump until next year.

Normally, that might dissuade some teams from taking Gunnar Hoglund, but it could put Cincinnati in the catbird’s seat, as selecting the right-hander higher than many experts project might provide the Reds with with a discount in terms of signing the Ole Miss product. Hoglund was flying up draft boards until the injury and was considered by many to be a Top10 pick.

The New York Yankees used a similar strategy with Clarke Schmidt in 2017. The right-hander had Tommy John surgery one month before the MLB Draft and Brian Cashman selected the South Carolina product with the 16th overall pick and signed him to a below-slot deal. Four years later, Schmidt is the Yankees’ No. 2 overall prospect according to MLB Pipeline.

3. The Reds should target Mississippi State pitcher Will Bednar in the MLB Draft.

The Southeastern Conference is loaded with talented pitchers. Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker of Vanderbilt, the aforementioned Gunnar Hoglund of Ole Miss, and Tommy Mace of Florida. However, oftentimes lost in the shuffle of the dominant SEC hurlers is Will Bednar of Mississippi State. The right-hander is draft-eligible in just his second year in Starkville.

Bednar, the brother of Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher David Bednar, could have been taken in the 2019 MLB Draft out of high school, but biceps tendinitis scared most teams away and the right-hander wasn’t taken in the draft. Instead, Bednar decided to attend Mississippi State. He threw just 15.1 innings last season, but came onto the scene with his production in 2021.

Bednar has a fastball that sits in the mid-90s and his mid-80s slider has developed into a plus pitch. The Bulldogs’ top starter also has a fringy curveball that could be developed into a solid offering as well. Bednar also has the makings of a solid changeup, making the 21-year-old a four-pitch hurler with potential to land a spot in the middle of the rotation.

Will Bednar is unlikely to come off the board prior to the Cincinnati Reds’ selection at No. 17, and some scouts feel as though Bendar is not a first-round talent. With so many skewed opinions on where the right-hander may end up, it’s a safe bet to assume that Cincinnati could sign Bednar to a below-slot deal at No. 17 and make a big-time selection with the 30th-overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft.