Reds vs. Padres: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

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MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – JUNE 14: Vladimir Gutierrez #53 of the Cincinnati Reds jumps into the air to stretch. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images) /

The Reds take their eight-game road-winning streak to San Diego.

Who’s the hottest team in the National League, Reds Country? That’s right, it’s your Cincinnati Reds. Following a sweep at home of the Colorado Rockies, the Redlegs took their show on the road and swept three straight from the first-place Milwaukee Brewers to pull within just two games of the top spot in the NL Central Division.

Winners of eight of their last 10 contests, the Reds (35-31) have opened the month of June scorching by going 11-3 and placing themselves firmly in the hunt for the division lead. Whether it’s at the plate or on the pitcher’s mound, the Cincinnati Reds are taking care of business.

Since June 1st, the Reds are leading the senior circuit with a .349 OBP and a .786 OPS mark. Additionally, they are second in the league in doubles (31), walks (54), and third with a .254 batting average.

What once was a weakness has become a strength over the past 15 days as the once volatile pitching staff has settled down considerably. The nine home runs they’ve allowed are the fewest in the NL while holding opponents to a paltry .210 average, good enough for third-best among National League staffs.

Speaking of sweeps, the San Diego Padres (38-32) are coming off one themselves; however, they were on the receiving end of a beatdown from the lowly Colorado Rockies. The Friars are currently in a tailspin, having dropped eight of their last 10 contests.

Over the last decade, the Redlegs have only captured the season series twice from the Padres and are 11-15 at Petco Park during that timeframe. Nevertheless, Cincinnati took three of four from the Padres in their last visit to San Diego in April of 2019.

DENVER, CO – JUNE 16: Fernando Tatis Jr. #23 of the San Diego Padres runs the bases after hitting a third-inning solo home run. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /

Padres phenom is as good as advertised.

You can’t turn on ESPN or MLB Network without their talking heads tripping over themselves to praise San Diego shortstop Fernandez Tatis Jr., and it’s not hyperbole. Tatis Jr. is really that good.

Entering play today, Tatis Jr. is slashing a stout .277/.352/.665 with an impressive 1.017 OPS. His 21 home runs and 178 OPS+ leads the National League. But wait, there’s more. His 48 RBIs trail only Jesus Aguilar of the Miami Marlins for the top spot in the senior circuit. By the way, Tatis Jr. is only 22-years-old.

San Diego has needed every bit of Tatis Jr.’s fireworks because overall, their offense is a fairly pedestrian unit. Even though they are second in the league, drawing 258 free passes, they sport a weak .232 batting average, ranking them 11th in the National League.

However, when the Padres do reach base, they create havoc on the base paths. Their 67 stolen bases easily outdistance the 41 swiped by the Miami Marlins for the most thefts in the league. Five Padres have stolen more than six bases this year. Needless to say, Reds’ backstops Tucker Barnhart and Tyler Stephenson, will have their hands full this weekend.

If the Reds trail in the late innings, they will be in a world of trouble as setup man Austin Adams and closer Mark Melancon have been lights out. Tossing 24 innings, Adams has allowed just 12 hits while fanning a remarkable 36 batters.

Even though he’s 36-years-old closer Mark Melancon shows no signs of slowing down. The veteran has opened his 13th year in the majors by converting 19-of-21 save opportunities and holding the opposition to a .175 batting average.

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – JUNE 15: Luis Castillo #58 of the Cincinnati Reds throws a pitch. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images) /

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Padres.

I’m not sure how many times it’s happened in MLB history, but it can’t be many, as Wade Miley (6-4 2.92 ERA) and Joe Musgrove (4-6 2.50 ERA), authors of no-hitters in the same season, square off in tonight’s series opener.

A strong case can be made that Miley has been the Reds’ best starter this season. Certainly, his last three starts since returning from the IL present overwhelming evidence for his case. Tossing 18 innings, the southpaw has allowed just three earned runs while recording 17 strikeouts.

Need more evidence? I got it. The 34-year-old Cajun has not surrendered a gopher ball since April 30th against the Chicago Cubs, and he’ll have ample room to work within the spacious grounds at Petco Park.

Joe Musgrove and the Reds are no strangers to one another. Having spent the previous three years with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Musgrove is 3-2 lifetime versus the Redlegs in six appearances. In addition, the right-hander has gotten the best of Jesse Winker in their meetings, limiting Cincinnati’s slugger to just one hit in nine at-bats.

The big Texan Tony Santillan (0-0 1.93 ERA) makes his second big league start Friday night as he opposes Chris Paddack (3-5 4.14 ERA) of the Padres. Santillan flirted with disaster all afternoon in his debut, but give the rookie credit, he got the big out when he needed it.

Working 4.2 innings, the 24-year-old right-hander issued four free passes and allowed five hits but surrendered just one run. However, if Santillan allows this much traffic on the basepaths tomorrow night, it might not end as well for the rookie.

It might sound odd, but manager David Bell may want to load the lineup with right-handed hitters against Chris Paddack. The San Diego right-hander has limited lefties to an anemic .219/.259/.344 slash line while righties are slashing .273/.314/.556 versus the fellow Texan. Seven of the nine gopher balls he’s allowed this season have been to right-handed batters.

Another rookie gets the call Saturday as Vladimir Gutierrez (3-1 2.74 ERA) battles Dinelson Lamet (1-2 3.33 ERA) for manager Jayce Tingler’s club. How good has Gutierrez been since making his debut on May 28th? He’s won three consecutive starts and has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his four outings.

After striking out just six hitters over 10 innings in his first two starts, Gutierrez has whiffed 13 in as many frames in his last two times on the bump. The 25-year-old Cuban has also held left-handed hitters to a .150 average in his first 23 big league innings.

Dinelson Lamet may start the game for the Padres, but he’s not going to finish it. In his seven starts, he’s completed five innings just once and hasn’t tossed more than 78 pitches in a game this season. The right-hander is a mystery to much of the Reds’ lineup. No Redlegs hitter has more than five plate appearances versus the 24-year-old.

Sunday’s matinee series finale will feature Luis Castillo (2-9 5.83) for the Cincinnati as the San Diego Padres counter with the always tough Yu Darvish (6-2 2.57 ERA). It was a vintage La Piedra performance his last time out facing the Milwaukee Brewers.

Tossing seven shutout innings, La Piedra yielded just three hits while punching out seven Beer Makers. Over his last three starts, he’s surrendered just four runs in 18.2 frames while being taken deep just once.

However, Castillo has a tall order versus Yu Darvish, who dominates Reds’ hitters. In his last five starts against Cincinnati, Darvish has fanned 46 against only six walks in 31 innings of work. The Reds dynamic duo of Nick Castellanos and Jesse Winker are a combined 1-for-23 when facing Darvish. Mercy!

ST LOUIS, MO – JUNE 06: Lucas Sims #39 of the Cincinnati Reds celebrates after recording the final out. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) /

Lucas Sims has emerged as the closer in the Reds’ bullpen.

Following longtime closer Raisel Iglesias’ trade to the Los Angeles Angels and the front office’s decision not to tender a contract to Archie Bradley, there was considerable speculation in the offseason as to who would be the Cincinnati Reds closer this season.

While both Amir Garrett and Lucas Sims openly, in a friendly competitive manner, campaigned for the job during the winter, through the first six weeks of the 2021 season, neither reliever seemed capable of fulfilling the vital role. Finally, however, a favorite has emerged.

Once the calendar flipped to June, Lucas Sims has been the difference-maker in the Cincinnati bullpen. The 27-year-old right-hander has collected four saves in his last seven games while striking out 14 in just 8.2 innings.

What’s been most impressive has been David Bell’s usage of Sims. The Reds skipper has shown great confidence in Sims, allowing him twice to work more than an inning to close out a win in June. Additionally, three of Sims’ seven appearances this month have seen him recording four outs or more.

Prediction

Even though the Reds and Padres are currently heading in opposite directions, this San Diego club is much too talented not to turn it around. Let’s hope for the Reds’ sake the Friars skid extends a few more days.

Next. Geno must go back to SS when Moose returns

Look for the Redlegs to split the four-game set at Petco Park this weekend before heading to Minneapolis to face the Twins and close out the nine-game road trip.

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