Reds vs. Brewers: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

The Reds welcome Milwaukee to town in desperate need of a win.

Reds Country, the old saying goes, “You have to laugh to keep from crying.” If that’s to be believed, there’s been plenty of laughter around the Queen City this week. What’s transpired so far this week at Great American Ball Park has been an unequivocal disaster for the Cincinnati Reds.

We mentioned this homestand would be a good barometer for the Reds (19-23) in our preview leading up to the, thankfully, just-completed series against the San Francisco Giants. If the last four days are any indication, it could be a long summer along the Banks of the Ohio River.

San Francisco didn’t just sweep the Reds; they humiliated them. After being outscored 33-9 over the past four days, the Redlegs have been left reeling and find themselves 5.5 games back in the National League Central, dropping seven of their last 10 contests.

What’s even more disturbing is this is the second time the Redlegs have been swept at home this season, and it’s not even Memorial Day. Frankly, Cincinnati should avoid playing anyone in the Mountain and Pacific time zones.

Following yesterday’s debacle, the Reds are 6-14 versus the National League West, including a 2-11 mark against the Giants and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Mercifully, the Redlegs will not have to see either one again during the 2021 campaign.

Milwaukee (21-22) will have little sympathy for the Reds. The Beer Makers have dropped six of their last 10 and sit four games back in the division. Even though we’re nearly two months into the 2021 season, this will be the first meeting between the Brewers and Reds this year.

Since 2012 Cincinnati owns a 43-37 advantage over the Brewers at Great American Ball Park; however, the last three years have seen Milwaukee enjoying their time in the Queen City. Once Christian Yelich arrived in Milwaukee in 2018, the Brewers have taken 15-of-23 from the Redlegs on their home turf. Coincidence? I think not.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Brewers

Reds manager David Bell hands the ball to Jeff Hoffman (2-3 4.67 ERA) to kick off the series opposing Adrian Houser (3-4 3.63 ERA) of the Brewers. How bad has it been for Hoffman recently? The Reds right-hander has not completed five innings since April 22nd.

If Hoffman had tossed enough innings, his WHIP of 1.500 would rank as the fifth-highest among NL starters. Over his last 14.1 frames, he’s allowed 25 runners to reach via a hit or base on balls. I’m not sure how long the leash is for Hoffman, but one has to believe it’s getting awfully short at this point.

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Milwaukee right-hander Adrian Houser is coming off a brutal start courtesy of the Atlanta Braves. Completing three innings, he allowed two hits and a season-high five free passes. If there’s one hitter who gives Houser nightmares, it’s Jesse Winker. He has five hits in 10 at-bats versus Houser, including three round-trippers. Eugenio Suarez has also taken Houser deep twice in 11 trips to the dish.

Sonny Gray (0-3 3.86 ERA) gets another chance at that elusive first victory as he battles veteran left-hander Brett Anderson (2-3 4.50 ERA) Saturday afternoon. By no means has Gray been terrible this year, but he’s not been the consistent source of greatness Reds Country has been accustomed to seeing.

Making six starts on the season, Gray has failed to complete five innings three times. In his previous two years in Cincinnati, Gray failed to work five frames in only six of his 42 starts. Hopefully, the sight of the Brewers will unleash the Sonny Gray magic.

In his last two starts against Milwaukee, he’s allowed just one run in 10 innings while recording a dozen strikeouts. Brewers outfielder Avisail Garcia will probably be begging manager Craig Counsell for a day off Saturday. The right-handed slugger has just one hit in 18 at-bats versus Gray.

If Wade Miley had a twin, it would be Milwaukee’s, Brett Anderson. The southpaw will never light up the radar gun, but he’s lasted 13 years in the majors by keeping hitters off balance; just ask the Reds’ Kyle Farmer. Cincinnati’s jack of all trades is 1-for-9 lifetime in his battles with the 33-year-old left-hander.

Sunday’s matinee series finale will feature Luis Castillo (1-6 7.44 ERA) squaring off against the Brewers’ Freddy Peralta (4-1 2.40 ERA). If there was ever a mismatch on paper, this would be it.

Castillo leads the NL in losses, hits allowed, and earned runs. On the other hand, Freddy Peralta allows the fewest hits per nine innings, and his 13.8 strikeouts per nine innings mark leads the senior circuit.

Granted, La Piedra’s last start was better, as evidenced by the season-high 11 punchouts, but there’s much work to be done. He still managed to work just five frames and allowed six hits, and issued three bases on balls. Let’s slow our roll on the old Luis Castillo being back.

One team Castillo racks up punchouts against is the Milwaukee Brewers. His 86 careers K’s versus the Brew Crew are his most against any team. This is not news to the Brewers’ Travis Shaw. The son of former Redleg, Jeff Shaw, has fanned five times in 14 at-bats when facing La Piedra.

You don’t have to tell Cincinnati how nasty Freddy Peralta can be. In his last start against the Reds in April of 2019, he allowed just two hits while recording 11 strikeouts in eight shutout frames.  The 25-year-old right-hander wears out Eugenio Suarez. Geno has managed just two singles in 13 career at-bats versus the Milwaukee hurler.

Odd roster construction and injuries are taking their toll on the Reds.

Earlier this week, the Cincinnati Reds had a starting infield of Kyle Farmer at first, Jonathan India at second, Eugenio Suarez at shortstop, and Nick Senzel at third. For the moment, let’s forget that none of these players are at their natural positions and focus on the results.

In the very first inning featuring this unique lineup, the club had three opportunities to turn double plays and to be expected, they failed every time. This is more an indictment on the front office than anyone else.

Somehow the Reds were willing to open the season without a legitimate major league shortstop on their roster, and it’s produced predictable results. But that’s another subject for another time.  But it’s been Joey Votto’s injury that has truly exposed the mistakes of the Reds’ brain trust.

Since Votto went on the IL with a broken thumb suffered during a May 5th contest with the Chicago White Sox, manager David Bell has used Alex Blandino, Kyle Farmer, Mike Moustakas, and Tyler Stephenson at first base. Only Moustakas looks remotely comfortable playing the position, and he was placed on the injured list yesterday with a right heel contusion. Good grief.

Unfortunately, Votto’s injury has pressed Blandino and Farmer into roles they’re ill-equipped to handle. While each player provides value off the bench, having them in the starting lineup daily has exposed the team’s weaknesses and roster limitations.

Prediction

One would like to believe things can only get better with the Giants leaving town. While San Francisco is an excellent team, the Reds should never have been manhandled the way they were over the last four days.

But all is not lost. Look for the Cincinnati Reds to pull themselves together and take two of three this weekend before a much-needed off-day as they travel to the nation’s capital to begin a set with the Washington Nationals on Tuesday.