Reds vs. Rockies: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Rockies.

Luis Castillo (1-4 6.42 ERA) gets another opportunity to state his case as to why he should remain in the rotation when he opposes Chi Chi Gonzalez (1-1 5.97 ERA) in tonight’s opener. It seems crazy to consider Castillo is pitching for his rotation spot, but that’s where we are.

La Piedra has been awful this year; there’s absolutely no way to spin it otherwise. He’s pitched into the seventh inning one time in seven starts and has allowed 55 runners to reach base via a hit or walk in just 33.2 innings. Woof!

When it comes to the Rockies and Castillo, history is not on La Piedra’s side. In his two previous starts, he’s 0-2 with 8.44 ERA and has surrendered 17 hits in 10.2 innings. A similar result Thursday will force manager David Bell to make some hard decisions.

More from Blog Red Machine

• Reds vs. White Sox: Pitching preview, prediction, and more
• Reds: Reiver Sanmartin adds another twist to offseason roster construction
• Reds: Signing Tyler Mahle to a contract extension should be a top priority
• Reds: Reiver Sanmartin should get first major league start vs Pirates
• Reds should unquestionably bring Wade Miley back in 2022

Right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez has kept the base paths busy himself. Tossing 28.2 innings, he’s allowed 35 hits and 10 free passes. Don’t look for the 29-year-old Floridian to go deep into the game, as he’s yet to pitch more than five frames in any of his five outings.

It’s safe to say, Wade Miley’s Friday night start will not rival his start from a week ago. Miley (4-2 2.00 ERA) will make his first start following his no-hitter against Cleveland.  The Rockies will counter with German Marquez (1-4 5.49 ERA).

Miley has been exceptional in his second season with the Cincinnati Reds. He’s failed to yield a run in half of his six starts, and the left-hander has managed to tame Coors Field throughout his career.

In six appearances in Denver, he’s compiled a 4-1 record with a more than respectable 4.19 ERA in the thin mountain air.  Don’t be surprised to see Bud Black give Elias Diaz the start behind the plate Friday. The Rockies backstop is 4-for-9 lifetime against Miley.

Don’t be fooled by Marquez’ numbers; he’s been a thorn in Cincinnati’s side in their two meetings. Tossing 14 innings, he’s allowed just three runs on 10 hits while fanning 13 Redlegs. Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker are a combined 1-for-11 versus the right-hander.

Colorado manager Bud Black has yet to name a starter for Saturday, but Tyler Mahle (2-1 3.00 ERA) will toe the rubber for the Reds. Despite the stellar ERA, efficiency continues to elude the Cincinnati right-hander.

Making seven starts this season, Mahle has pitched into the seventh inning just once. His 4.32 pitches per at-bat is the highest in the National League. The California native’s stuff is too good to continually place undue stress on the Reds bullpen.

Let’s hope Mahle’s start goes better than his last appearance in Colorado. Hurling 4.1 innings, he allowed 12 hits. That’s not a misprint—a dozen. Another similar performance will make for a very long evening for Reds Country.

Sunday’s matinee finale will feature Jeff Hoffman (2-3 4.70 ERA) battling Antonio Senzatela (1-4 5.97 ERA) of the Rockies. Speaking of inefficiency, Hoffman, unfortunately, shares this same characteristic. The right-hander’s 4.07 pitches per plate appearance ranks as ninth-most among NL hurlers.

Much like, Luis Castillo, Hoffman may be pitching to save his spot in the rotation. Over his last three starts, he’s tossed just 10.1 innings and walked eight opposing hitters. This will be his first career start at Coors Field as a visitor, and frankly, anything’s possible.

Somehow Antonio Senzatela is 1-0 against the Reds despite walking six and allowing 12 runs in only 10.1 innings of work in two starts. Expect to see the Colorado defense have plenty of opportunities Sunday. Senzatela has not recorded more than four strikeouts in any game this season.