Reds vs. Rockies: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

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DETROIT, MI – AUGUST 2: Nick Senzel #15 of the Cincinnati Reds celebrates as he scores on a single. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images) /

The Reds offense looks to take advantage of the mountain air.

As is usually the case with the Redlegs, it wasn’t easy, but they escaped Pittsburgh securing another series victory by outlasting the Pirates in extra-innings yesterday. Additionally, the Cincinnati Reds (17-17) haven’t dropped a series since the weekend debacle in St. Louis nearly three weeks ago.

Cincinnati, winners in six of their last 10 games, begin play today 3.5 games back of the red hot St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central. Visiting a struggling Colorado Rockies team is exactly what the doctor ordered to narrow the division gap.

This is a much different Rockies club than the Reds encountered on their last trip to Denver in July of 2019. Former Rockies’ third baseman Nolan Arenado has taken his skills to St. Louis, and outfielder David Dahl who earned an All-Star selection in 2019, is now playing for the Texas Rangers.

To say the Rockies (13-24) have a mountain to climb in the National League West is an understatement. Entering play today, Colorado is already 9.5 games back in the division and has dropped five of their last six.

That’s not to say the Rockies are completely void of talented players. Shortstop Trevor Story is as good as anyone in the game at the position, and even though he’s off to a slow start, four-time All-Star outfielder Charlie Blackmon is always a threat.

However, if the Reds will be victorious this weekend, they will need to re-write history as Coors Field has left the Redlegs staggering on multiple occasions. Lifetime Cincinnati is just 42-63 in the Mile High City.

Since 2012 the Reds have captured the season series from the Rockies only twice in eight attempts. How long has it been since the Redlegs won a series in Colorado? Try 2016 when Cincinnati took three of four from the Rockies as Dan Straily, John Lamb, and Alfredo Simon earned victories. In other words, it’s been a while.

CINCINNATI, OH – JULY 27: Trevor Story #27 of the Colorado Rockies runs the bases against the Cincinnati Reds. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images) /

Rockies’ pitching has been terrible – wash, rinse, repeat.

When you play 81 games a year in the thin mountain air, pitcher’s ERAs will suffer. It’s been that way since the Colorado Rockies entered the league and 1993, and, quite frankly, it’s never going to change.

So far, the 2021 season has been no different. Colorado started play yesterday with a National League worst 5.29 ERA. But wait, there’s more. Rockies pitching has also surrendered the most hits and second-most walks in the senior circuit. Needless to say, their 1.530 WHIP is the NL’s highest by a wide margin.

Whether it’s the starting rotation or the bullpen, Colorado hurlers have trouble retiring hitters. As play began Wednesday, the Colorado Rockies starters had a 5.29 ERA, while the relief corps produced a nearly identical 5.28 ERA. Manager Bud Black simply has nowhere to turn to consistently record outs.

Surprisingly the Colorado offense has been much less than its regular potent self. The Rockies’ 36 round-trippers going into Wednesday was 10th among NL clubs, and their .301 OBP ranks 13th in the league. Colorado is not a patient bunch to make matters worse, as evidenced by their second-worst 99 free passes drawn.

However, it’s not all bad news in the Mile High City. Second baseman Ryan McMahon is off to a solid start at the dish. The left-handed slugger leads the Rockies with eight homers and 22 RBIs entering play Wednesday.

Shortstop Trevor Story is having a typical Trevor Story-like season. The two-time All-Star and impending free agent is slashing .278/.350/.484 with four home runs. I wonder if there’s another team who could use an upgrade at the shortstop position?

CLEVELAND, OH – MAY 07: Wade Miley #22 of the Cincinnati Reds celebrates with Tucker Barnhart #16 after pitching a no-hitter. (Photo by Ron Schwane/Getty Images) /

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Rockies.

Luis Castillo (1-4 6.42 ERA) gets another opportunity to state his case as to why he should remain in the rotation when he opposes Chi Chi Gonzalez (1-1 5.97 ERA) in tonight’s opener. It seems crazy to consider Castillo is pitching for his rotation spot, but that’s where we are.

La Piedra has been awful this year; there’s absolutely no way to spin it otherwise. He’s pitched into the seventh inning one time in seven starts and has allowed 55 runners to reach base via a hit or walk in just 33.2 innings. Woof!

When it comes to the Rockies and Castillo, history is not on La Piedra’s side. In his two previous starts, he’s 0-2 with 8.44 ERA and has surrendered 17 hits in 10.2 innings. A similar result Thursday will force manager David Bell to make some hard decisions.

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Right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez has kept the base paths busy himself. Tossing 28.2 innings, he’s allowed 35 hits and 10 free passes. Don’t look for the 29-year-old Floridian to go deep into the game, as he’s yet to pitch more than five frames in any of his five outings.

It’s safe to say, Wade Miley’s Friday night start will not rival his start from a week ago. Miley (4-2 2.00 ERA) will make his first start following his no-hitter against Cleveland. The Rockies will counter with German Marquez (1-4 5.49 ERA).

Miley has been exceptional in his second season with the Cincinnati Reds. He’s failed to yield a run in half of his six starts, and the left-hander has managed to tame Coors Field throughout his career.

In six appearances in Denver, he’s compiled a 4-1 record with a more than respectable 4.19 ERA in the thin mountain air. Don’t be surprised to see Bud Black give Elias Diaz the start behind the plate Friday. The Rockies backstop is 4-for-9 lifetime against Miley.

Don’t be fooled by Marquez’ numbers; he’s been a thorn in Cincinnati’s side in their two meetings. Tossing 14 innings, he’s allowed just three runs on 10 hits while fanning 13 Redlegs. Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker are a combined 1-for-11 versus the right-hander.

Colorado manager Bud Black has yet to name a starter for Saturday, but Tyler Mahle (2-1 3.00 ERA) will toe the rubber for the Reds. Despite the stellar ERA, efficiency continues to elude the Cincinnati right-hander.

Making seven starts this season, Mahle has pitched into the seventh inning just once. His 4.32 pitches per at-bat is the highest in the National League. The California native’s stuff is too good to continually place undue stress on the Reds bullpen.

Let’s hope Mahle’s start goes better than his last appearance in Colorado. Hurling 4.1 innings, he allowed 12 hits. That’s not a misprint—a dozen. Another similar performance will make for a very long evening for Reds Country.

Sunday’s matinee finale will feature Jeff Hoffman (2-3 4.70 ERA) battling Antonio Senzatela (1-4 5.97 ERA) of the Rockies. Speaking of inefficiency, Hoffman, unfortunately, shares this same characteristic. The right-hander’s 4.07 pitches per plate appearance ranks as ninth-most among NL hurlers.

Much like, Luis Castillo, Hoffman may be pitching to save his spot in the rotation. Over his last three starts, he’s tossed just 10.1 innings and walked eight opposing hitters. This will be his first career start at Coors Field as a visitor, and frankly, anything’s possible.

Somehow Antonio Senzatela is 1-0 against the Reds despite walking six and allowing 12 runs in only 10.1 innings of work in two starts. Expect to see the Colorado defense have plenty of opportunities Sunday. Senzatela has not recorded more than four strikeouts in any game this season.

PITTSBURGH, PA – MAY 12: Tyler Stephenson #37 of the Cincinnati Reds celebrates with Heath Hembree #55 after a 5-1 win. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images) /

Journeyman Heath Hembree has been exceptional for the Reds.

I have been quick to criticize general manager Nick Krall regarding the structure of the Cincinnati Reds bullpen. However, credit must be given when it’s due, and his decision to sign Heath Hembree has been a stroke of genuis.

Signing as a free agent late in spring training, Hembree made his Cincinnati debut on April 23rd, and he’s been simply lights out. Appearing in seven games, he’s yet to allow a run or even a hit in 7.2 innings of work.

Additionally, the Spartanburg, South Carolina native has come in and thrown strikes when called upon. He’s tossing strikes 65% of the time and has only two walks against eight punchouts.

Due to the recent suspension of Amir Garrett, don’t be surprised to see Hembree, a nine-year veteran with his fourth club, called upon in high-leverage situations. David Bell has called upon Hembree three times late in one-run ballgames, and he’s responded each time by retiring 10 of the 11 batters he’s faced.

Prediction

The Reds face the rare opportunity of returning to the Queen City in much better shape than when they left. Cincinnati could, and should, leave Colorado, winning six of nine on their three-city road trip.

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This is another series in which the Reds will face a last-place ball club in which they have a decided talent advantage. Look for the Reds to take three of four this weekend from the Rockies as they return to Great American Ball Park to entertain two of the league’s finest in the San Francisco Giants and Milwaukee Brewers.

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