Reds vs. Cubs: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

The Reds return home feeling better about themselves.

It’s challenging to make the argument that a 2-4 road trip was a success, but the Cincinnati Reds (11-13) have seemingly regained their footing after taking two of three from the World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers in Tinsel Town. The series victory over the Dodgers was needed in the worst way.

Monday night’s extra-inning win in the City of Angels snapped an infuriating seven-game slide in which the Reds dropped games in nearly every conceivable fashion. This weekend presents an excellent opportunity for the Redlegs to post consecutive series triumphs.

The reason for all this optimism is the Chicago Cubs (11-14) are visiting the Queen City. Through the first month of the 2021 season, the Cubs have to be one of baseball’s biggest disappointments.

Languishing in the basement of the National League Central, the defending division champs have lost five of their last six. To be honest,  this isn’t the same team that captured the division crown during the 2020 season.

Several familiar faces have left the Windy City following a winter of discontent in Chicago. Slugger and Middletown, Ohio native (sorry, couldn’t resist) Kyle Schwarber was non-tendered by the Cubs in the offseason and replaced with former Dodgers’ outfielder Joc Peterson. It’s still a head-scratching decision considering Schwarber and Peterson are essentially the same player.

Also sent packing was veteran left-handed starter Jon Lester and backup catcher Victor Caritini. However, the trade of ace Yu Darvish to the San Diego Padres was by far the most surprising move of the Cubs’ offseason.

Darvish, who was bested in the Cy Young voting by former Reds’ pitcher Trevor Bauer, was a beast in his final season as a Cub. For whatever reason, Chicago general manager Jed Hoyer is running the team as if they are suddenly cash strapped, much to the delight of their division rivals.

Recent history between the two clubs has been kind to the North Siders. Since 2015 Cincinnati has captured the season series just once. Over the last decade, the teams have played to a near-draw.

Cincinnati is 88-89 versus the Cubs since 2011 while holding a 46-42 edge at Great American Ball Park. Let’s hope the Reds can tip the scale to their favor by the time the Cubbies leave town late Sunday afternoon.

Both the Cubs’ bats and arms have yet to wake from hibernation.

For a team that fields a lineup with names like Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, and former MVP Kris Bryant, you don’t expect to be the worst hitting team in the league, but the bottom is where the Chicago Cubs find themselves.

Entering play yesterday, Chicago was hitting a league-worst .203 and were second from the cellar in both on-base percentage (.298) and hits (154). Amazingly, the Cubs have three starters hitting below the Mendoza line.

Second baseman David Bote and outfielders Ian Happ and Jason Heyward were hitting .189 or worse as play began Thursday. Only Kris Bryant is showing signs of his usual outstanding self. The third baseman is off to an excellent start slashing .300/.380/.613 with 16 RBIs and 13 extra-base hits, including six round-trippers.

Give the Cubs pitching staff credit; they’ve been willing participants to share in the ineptness to keep the offense company. Chicago hurlers have compiled a senior circuit worst 4.86 ERA and allowed 114 earned runs as play opened yesterday.

The North Siders starting rotation has been a dumpster fire to begin the 2021 campaign. Through the first month of the season, the starters occupy the bottom of the NL with an ugly 5.68 ERA and just 105 strikeouts.

If there’s been a bright spot for Chicago pitching, it comes from a couple of right-handers in manager David Ross’ bullpen. Craig Kimbrel and Dan Winkler have combined to surrender just one run over 17.2 innings while allowing only five base hits.

The Reds have enjoyed home cooking this year.

Even though Cincinnati lead the National League in hitting entering play today, Reds Country knows those numbers are deceiving. When the Reds travel, unfortunately, their bats fail to do the same.

The Redlegs have been shutout four times this year, and as a surprise to no one, each of those occasions has occurred on the road. However, when the Cincinnati Reds get a good night’s rest in their own beds, the results are much different.

When playing at Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati slashes a blistering .290/.373./.534 with a whopping 25 home runs in a dozen games. The Reds have scored at least three runs in each of their home contests while denting the plate six times or more on seven occasions.

Cincinnati has six players with at least 20 at-bats hitting over .300 at home. The duo of Nick Castellanos and Tyler Naquin has been a wrecking crew at GABP. Between the two of them, they have 11 homers and 29 RBIs.

Prediction

Like most prognosticators, my predictions are not always accurate. However, the one thing I’m entirely confident about this weekend is that Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo will run his mouth and stick his nose in a situation that doesn’t concern him in the least.

No matter how exhausting three days of Rizzo’s antics will be, it won’t be enough to alter the outcome as the Reds take two of three from the Cubbies and prepare for a visit from their crosstown rivals, the Chicago White Sox, beginning Tuesday at Great American Ball Park.