Reds vs. Cubs: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Cubs

Wade Miley (2-2 2.45 ERA) kicks off the weekend festivities opposing Jake Arrieta (3-2 2.57 ERA) of the Cubs. The Cincinnati left-hander has been sensational to start the 2021 season. Tossing 22 innings, the 34-year-old Cajun has allowed a mere 14 while fanning 16 opposing hitters. However, danger lurks from a familiar Cubs source.

Kris Bryant is slashing .429/.471/.714 with a homer in 14 at-bats against the Reds southpaw, but first baseman Anthony Rizzo has not shared his teammate’s luck. The left-handed Rizzo has just three hits in 28 plate appearances versus Miley.

Arrieta is off to a solid start in his second tour of duty with the Cubs, and he’s no stranger to success in the Queen City. The right-hander has allowed just 17 hits in his last five trips to GABP, covering 32.2 innings. I won’t ever mention his performance from April 21, 2016.

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April brought plenty of showers for Luis Castillo (1-2 6.29 ERA), and he’s in desperate need of a bouquet of flowers as May begins. Chicago will counter with Zach Davies (1-2 9.47 ERA) for Saturday afternoon’s tilt.

Just how bad was La Piedra in April? Unbelievably awful for a pitcher who is so much better than he’s shown thus far. Castillo’s 32 hits allowed are the second-most in the National League, while his five gopher balls are the seventh most.

Left-handed hitters are simply abusing La Piedra to open the season.  Slashing .362/.413/.586 Castillo will have to tread carefully around Rizzo and  Chicago outfielder Jason Heyward.

Don’t expect Zach Davies to shed any tears for Castillo. As bad as La Piedra’s been, Davies has been worse. The former Brewer and Padre has allowed an absolutely staggering 42 hitters reach base via a hit or base on balls in just 19 frames.

However, facing the Redlegs should provide little solace for the Chicago right-hander. In his last five games against Cincinnati, he’s produced a 6.85 ERA while allowing 38 base runners in 22.1 innings. Don’t be surprised to see the Reds’ fireworks operator lighting up the Southwest Ohio sky Saturday afternoon.

Cincinnati’s best pitcher to begin the 2021 season takes the mound in Sunday’s series finale. Tyler Mahle (1-1 1.75 ERA) has been nothing short of brilliant this year. Trevor Williams (2-2 4.44 ERA) has the unenviable task of squaring off against the Reds right-hander.

Through his first 25.2 innings, Mahle has yielded 14 hits and two homers while fanning an impressive 36 hitters. Expect to see several Chicago hitters making left turns toward their third-base dugout Sunday.

Mahle has whiffed 21 North Siders in his last 13.2 innings of work versus the Cubs. One Cubs player in particular whom Mahle enjoys embarrassing is Ian Happ. The Univesity of Cincinnati alum is hitless in a dozen at-bats with seven punchouts when facing the California native.

Left-handed Cincinnati hitters have worn Trevor Williams out over his career. The trio of Tucker Barnhart, Joey Votto, and Jesse Winker has collected 24 hits in 56 at-bats when facing the 29-year-old right-hander. Look for a left-handed heavy lineup card from David Bell on Sunday afternoon.