Reds vs. Indians: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

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SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – APRIL 12: Jesse Winker #33 of the Cincinnati Reds rounds the bases after hitting a two-run home run. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images) /

The Reds look to rebound as their battle for the Ohio Cup begins.

Newspaper editor and author Horace Greeley is credited with coining the 1850’s phrase “Go West, young man.” A 21st-century edition of the famous quote, as far as the Cincinnati Reds are concerned, should be “Never go West, young man.”

It was yet another unsuccessful trek to the Pacific Time Zone as the Reds (7-5) dropped 2-of-3 games to both the Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Francisco Giants. Cincinnati left the Queen City atop the National League Central, and they return, sharing the lead with the Milwaukee Brewers.

As they were leaving Great American Ball Park, the offense was denting the plate at a dizzying rate. Unfortunately, the bats did not travel well on their first road trip of the year, scoring just 18 runs over those six games.

The Reds were shutout twice in six those contests against the D-backs and Giants while only managing to score more than three runs twice. Outside of the Giants’ Kevin Gausman and Johnny Cueto, the Reds weren’t exactly facing household names on the mound, making the lack of offense all the more disheartening.

The Cleveland Indians visit Southwest Ohio as winners of six of their last eight games following a four-game split in Chicago with the White Sox. As play begins Friday, the Indians (7-5) find themselves just a half-game back of the Kansas City Royals in the American League Central.

As far as the intra-state rivalry is concerned, it honestly has not been much of one. Cleveland owns a lifetime 66-51 mark against Cincinnati, and they’ve been incredibly dominant over the last decade. Since 2011, the Reds have captured the Ohio Cup outright just one time.

CLEVELAND, OHIO – APRIL 11: Logan Allen #54 of the Cleveland Indians pitches during a game. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images) /

The Indians’ pitching staff has been excellent to begin the season.

Entering play Friday, the Cleveland Indians sit near the top of the American League with an outstanding 2.91 team-ERA. Additionally, the 69 hits Cleveland hurlers have allowed are the fewest among clubs on the junior circuit.

Whether they’re facing left or right-handed batters, the Tribe’s pitching staff have had their way. Beginning play yesterday, lefties were slashing a paltry .175/.274/.282, while right-handers were not much better, sporting an anemic .185/.264/.321 slash line.

Through their first dozen games, Cleveland starters are 6-4 and have held opponents to a .188 batting average. Unfortunately for their opponents, it gets even more challenging when manager Terry Francona signals to the bullpen.

The Indians’ bullpen has allowed just three homers in 35.2 innings while recording 39 strikeouts. Only two Cleveland relievers, Trevor Stephan and Nick Wittgren have allowed more than one earned run this season. That is the definition of a shutdown bullpen.

When you trade a hitter of Francisco Lindor’s caliber, you know the offense is going to take a step back. However, I’m sure the Indians’ faithful didn’t expect this sort of freefall. Heading into play yesterday, the Tribe were last in the AL with a .178 batting average and a .277 on-base percentage.

Adding insult to injury, Cleveland was no-hit Wednesday by Chicago’s Carlos Rodon. Only a Roberto Perez hit by pitch with one out in the top of the 9th inning prevented a perfect game from being tossed.

Left-fielder Eddie Rosario is the only Indians regular hitting .250 or above. Despite whiffing an astounding 14 times yesterday against White Sox pitching, the Indians’ 99 punchouts are the second-fewest in the American League.

MINNEAPOLIS, MN – SEPTEMBER 27: Sonny Gray #54 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches. (Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images) /

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Indians.

Every team in baseball is looking for a fifth starter who’s competitive and will keep his team in the game. Friday night’s starter for the Redlegs, Jeff Hoffman (1-1 3.86 ERA), has lived up to that standard so far this season.

The right-hander has given the Reds two decent starts while fanning eight and allowing just one home run through his first 9.1 frames on the season. He’s never faced the Indians as a starter, so there’s a good chance their unfamiliarity with him will work to Cincinnati’s advantage.

Indians’ Southpaw Logan Allen (1-1 2.70 ERA) will take the mound for Cleveland in the opener. It would be in the Reds’ best interest to take a prudent approach at the plate against the 24-year-old.

Over his last 29.1 innings, Allen has issued 14 free passes, including five in just 10 frames this season. Interestingly enough, this will be the first time Cincinnati has seen a left-handed starter in the young 2021 campaign.

It will be a sight for sore eyes Saturday afternoon when Cincinnati ace Sonny Gray makes his 2021 debut. The two-time All-Star missed the first two weeks of the season battling a mid-back muscle strain which caused him to open the season on the injured list.

A healthy Sonny Gray is exactly what the Cincinnati Reds need. Since arriving in the Queen City, Gray is 16-11 with a 3.07 ERA in addition to 277 punchouts in just 231.1 innings. If Gray is anything close to what he’s been the last two seasons, it will give the Redlegs the best rotation in the division.

Opposing Gray will be right-hander Triston McKenzie (0-0 4.70 ERA), making his second start of the season. Similar to Logan Allen, McKenzie has struggled at times to consistently find the strike zone. Tossing 7.2 innings this season, he’s already allowed six walks. Patience will indeed be a virtue for the Reds.

Sunday’s matinee finale will see perhaps the Reds’ most effective starting pitcher to open the 2021 season Wade Miley (2-0 0.00 ERA), toeing the rubber. The southpaw has been nothing short of sensational in his first two starts.

Throwing 11 shutout frames, he’s only surrendered two walks and four hits while fanning nine opposing hitters. Lifetime the 34-year-old Cajun is 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA in seven starts versus Cleveland, with his lone victory occurring during the 2016 season.

Cleveland manager Tony Francona has yet to name a starter for Sunday, and I believe I speak for all of Reds Country when I say I hope it’s not reigning Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber. If you’re wondering how Bieber could follow up his wonderful season last year, how about 35 strikeouts in only 21.1 innings this season. Mercy.

PHOENIX, ARIZONA – APRIL 09: Mike Moustakas #9 of the Cincinnati Reds reacts after being hit by a pitch during the seventh inning. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

Will the real Reds offense please stand up?

This time last week, the Cincinnati Reds offense appeared to be an unstoppable juggernaut ready to steamroll any pitching staff that dared took the mound. After scoring 57 runs in six contests at Great American Ball Park, the Redlegs were prepared to take their act on the road.

Let’s be kind and call their first road trip of the year a humbling experience. The Cincinnati offense managed just 18 runs in six games while producing a horrific .206/.260./.352 slash line. It was also an incredibly underwhelming performance by the Reds youngsters.

Jonathan India, Nick Senzel, and Tyler Stephenson combined to go 6-for-45 without an extra-base hit. Let’s hope the friendly setting of GABP breathes some life into their sluggish bats.

There’s no delicate way to say it, but the Cincinnati bullpen has been awful to start the season. Entering play yesterday, their 24 walks were tied for the third-most in the National League while the eight gopher balls served up only trails the Miami Marlins tally of nine for the most in the senior circuit.

The trio of Cam Bedrosian, Amir Garrett, and Cionel Perez has allowed 15 runs in only 12 innings of work. But wait, it gets worse. They’ve also combined to issue 14 free passes and 16 hits. Ouch!

Norm Charlton and Rob Dibble aren’t walking through that door anytime soon. However, this is not entirely unexpected. The Reds front office took a gamble in the offseason by trading closer Raisel Iglesias and non-tendering Archie Bradley. The early returns are snake eyes for the Reds bullpen.

Prediction

If the Reds are able to wake up the bats, Cincinnati’s offense definitely has the wherewithal to combat Cleveland’s pitching. The Reds are going to need some solid performances from their starters as well.

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Recent history tells us the Ohio Cup trophy couldn’t find its way to Cincinnati with a map. Nevertheless, I sense a wind of change lingering in the Buckeye State. Call it the curse of Francisco Lindor, but beginning in 2021, the trophy will take residence in the Queen City as the Redlegs till take two of three from the Tribe.

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