Reds vs Pirates: Pitching preview, prediction and more

How are we feeling, Reds Country? Obviously, this question would have received a drastically different answer following the first inning debacle on Opening Day; however, it turned out to be as impressive an opening series weekend along the banks of the Ohio in an incredibly long time.

Following their first inning 6-0 deficit on Opening Day, the Cincinnati Reds (2-1) outscored the St. Louis Cardinals 27-12. The Reds 27 runs scored are their must to open a season since 1976 when the defending World Champions dented the plate 33 times in a three-game sweep of the Houston Astros. Additionally, this was the first opening season series victory in manager David Bell’s tenure as the Reds skipper.

Reds capture their first opening series victory since 2017.

Over the past three seasons, the Reds have stumbled out of the gate, but a series victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates (1-2) this week would be their best start since the 2017 club began their campaign 7-2 before quickly fading to irrelevance.

After defeating the Chicago Cubs on Opening Day at Wrigley Field, Pittsburgh dropped the final two games to the defending National League Central champions. Outside of a brief three-year stretch during the last decade, Bucs’ fans are being subjected to another complete rebuild with no end in sight, which has dominated the franchise this century.

In his debut season as the Pirates manager, Derek Shelton’s squad finished in the NL Central division basement, winning just 19 games in the abbreviated 60-game season. Since the 2000 season, Pittsburgh has finished last in the division eight times.

Additionally, the Pirates have only finished as high as second-place in the division three times without capturing a title. All indications point to another last-place finish this season with a possible 100-loss campaign as a real possibility.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Pirates

Monday night’s series opener will see Pittsburgh’s JT Brubaker opposing Jose De Leon. The Reds right-hander will be making his first MLB start since September 28, 2016, when he was a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

This is a massive start for De Leon. Due to Sonny Gray and Michael Lorenzen’s injuries, De Leon has an opportunity to establish himself as a viable major league pitcher. The 28-year-old appeared in five games during spring training, including four starts, striking out 24 in just 16.2 frames. However, he surrendered five homers and nine free passes. He’s got to clean those numbers up.

Fellow right-hander JT Brubaker is coming off a 2020 campaign in which he went 1-3 with a 4.94 ERA in 47.1 innings. The 27-year-old native of Springfield, Ohio tossed an excellent game against the Reds in his lone start against the club last year, allowing just one run in 5.1 innings in a Cincinnati 1-0 victory.

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Tuesday’s middle game of the three-game set has the Pirates Trevor Cahill squaring off against Wade Miley. The Reds left-hander is hoping for much better results in his second season in the Queen City. Injuries and ineffectiveness plagued the 34-year-old Miley last season. Tossing only 14.1 innings, the Cajun was 0-3 with a 5.65 ERA.

If you’re looking for a silver lining in Miley facing the Pirates, you’re not going to find it. In his last five starts against Pittsburgh, the Pirates have roughed him up for 33 hits and 17 runs over 20.2 innings. Miley has not defeated the Bucs since the 2013 season. Needless to say, he’s due.

Cahill will make his Pirates debut after spending last season with the San Francisco Giants. The much-traveled 33-year-old is pitching for his ninth different organization. He has not made a start versus the Reds since the 2014 season, but there’s one player who will undoubtedly look forward to seeing him on the bump. Mike Moustakas is slashing .714/.778/1.143 with a homer in 10 career plate appearances against Cahill.

Wednesday’s matinee will feature a pair of right-handers in Pittsburg’s Chad Kuhl and Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo. Needless to say, La Piedra can only be better than he was on Opening Day. Castillo’s performance was arguably the worst of his career. Lasting just 3.1 innings, he allowed a whopping 10 runs, in addition to eight hits, two walks, and zero strikeouts. In a word, it was awful.

However, the sight of Pirates in the batter’s box should bring a smile to Castillo’s face. In this last five starts against Pittsburgh, Castillo is 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA. Also, La Piedra has fanned 37 Bucs in 31 frames. Expect to see that same kind of dominance Wednesday afternoon.

Chad Kuhl’s Opening Day start against the Cubs was shorter than Castillo’s Opening Day assignment despite allowing only one earned run on two hits in three innings of work. Lifetime Kuhl is 2-2 with an impressive 3.19 ERA in seven starts against the Reds, and he absolutely owns Cincinnati backstop, Tucker Barnhart.

The Reds catcher has just two hits in 14 at-bats lifetime versus Kuhl. Don’t be surprised to see David Bell give him Wednesday afternoon off and let rookie Tyler Stephenson try his luck against the right-hander.

To quote Meat Loaf, “two out of three ain’t bad.” Just maybe this is the season where the Reds aren’t playing catch up by the middle of April, as has been the case of recent years. After finishing last in the NL in hitting last year, the Cincinnati bats lit up the GABP scoreboard like a Christmas tree over the weekend.

When he wasn’t causing the entire Cardinals team to lose their minds, outfielder Nick Castellanos blasted a pair of home runs and collected six hits in 11 at-bats while driving in five. Additionally, rookie second baseman Jonathan India made an incredible first impression. India opened his MLB career with a pair of multi-hit games while playing exceptional defense.

India wasn’t the only one to make a splash in his debut Reds series. Outfielder Tyler Naquin received two starts against the Cardinals, and he did not disappoint. The former Cleveland Indian went deep off St. Louis reliever Tyler Webb for a three-run shot Sunday afternoon, which followed a two-run scoring single Saturday.

But it wasn’t all about the hitting, as the Redlegs received a couple of excellent starts from Tyler Mahle and Jeff Hoffman. The pair of right-handers combined to yield just three runs in 10 innings while fanning 15 Redbirds. That’s getting it done.

Prediction

After taking two of three from the St. Louis Cardinals, this is the type of series where Cincinnati needs to assert their dominance versus Pittsburgh. The Pirates are an inferior team in every facet and the Reds need to take advantage of this early-season matchup.

Despite having two of their best starting pitchers (Sonny Gray and Michael Lorenzen) still on the IL, look for the Reds to take two of three before heading to the desert and facing the Arizona Diamondbacks to begin their first road trip of the season.