Cincinnati Reds: 3 biggest X-factors for the 2021 season

Mar 9, 2021; Goodyear, Arizona, USA; Cincinnati Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez (7) looks on against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the third inning of a spring training game. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 9, 2021; Goodyear, Arizona, USA; Cincinnati Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez (7) looks on against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the third inning of a spring training game. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
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Cincinnati Reds second baseman Jonathan India (71) rounds the bases on a solo home run.
Cincinnati Reds second baseman Jonathan India (71) rounds the bases on a solo home run. /

The Cincinnati Reds enter the 2021 season with a lot of uncertainty. After trade rumors swirled around key players all season, with Opening Day upon us, it’s time to see if this year’s squad has what it takes to return to the postseason. What are the three biggest X-factors for the Reds heading into 2021?

The Reds have had a rash of injuries to some of their key contributors, a massive shakeup in the lineup, questions regarding the team’s the starting rotation, and a plethora of unexpected standouts during Cactus League play.

When we speak of X-factors, we’re looking at something or someone who could change the fortunes of the ball club by performing above or below the expectation. After an odd winter, this year’s Reds team has plenty of X-factors, but we’ll narrow it down to three.

1. Will shuffling the Reds infield really work?

It looks like Jonathan India is going to get his chance. In a massive shakeup, David Bell decided to move All-Star third baseman Eugenio Suarez to shortstop, shift Mike Moustakas to the hot corner, and insert India at the keystone. Will this shuffling of the infield pay off? If India meets expectations, it most certainly will.

The Cincinnati Reds did little to nothing to improve a league-worst .212 batting average from a season ago. Minor additions like Dee Strange-Gordon, Tyler Naquin, and Max Schrock are not going to move the needle. But, India sure can.

Moving Geno to short allows India to join the starting infield and moves Kyle Farmer to the bench; a role he’s quite familiar with, and actually excels at. Having Suarez taking reps at shortstop gives Cincinnati the most powerful bat they’ve ever seen at the position. If Geno’s defense is at least average, his offense will more than makeup for the shoddy glove work.

I have no concerns about Moose at third base, a position he’s played throughout his entire career. Defensively, I have no concerns about India playing second base either. The biggest question is, will the former first-round pick play up to his abilities. India was impressive at the alternate site last summer; will that transition to the 2021 regular season?

Mar 15, 2021; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Cincinnati Reds relief pitcher Michael Lorenzen (21) pitches. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 15, 2021; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Cincinnati Reds relief pitcher Michael Lorenzen (21) pitches. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports /

2. Is the Reds rotation good enough?

The Cincinnati Reds had their first Cy Young Award-winner last season, and Trevor Bauer then promptly exited for the west coast and is now pitching for the World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers. To be quite honest, I’m not overly broken up over Bauer’s departure, but his replacement(s) will have to step up.

Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray, when healthy, are a formidable one-two punch atop the Reds starting rotation. Last season, Tyler Mahle elevated his game and showed that he has what it takes to be a starter at the major league level. How good will Mahle be? The answer to that question may well push Cincinnati in the postseason or keep the Reds on the outside looking in.

According to Baseball Reference, Mahle is projected to go 6-9 during the upcoming season and post a 4.57 ERA. FanGraphs’ ZIPS projections see the right-hander posting a 4.43 ERA and a record of 9-8 with a K/9 of 9.52. In order for Cincinnati’s rotation to really shine, Mahle must perform above those projections.

Wade Miley’s standing with the team may greatly change between now and the middle of summer. If the left-hander struggles, David Bell has plenty of replacements on hand. Tejay Antone, Jeff Hoffman, Nick Lodolo, and Jose De Leon are all plausible replacements should Miley falter early on.

Finally, how will Michael Lorenzen fair as a starting pitcher? The athletic hurler has primarily been a reliever the past several seasons, but the Reds are giving Mikey Biceps a chance to prove that he can be a starter. If Lorenzen can put up an ERA below 4.00 and start 25-plus games, the Reds have a real shot to take the division if all other starting pitchers play up to their potential.

Mar 9, 2021; Goodyear, Arizona, USA; Cincinnati Reds center fielder Nick Senzel (15) bats. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 9, 2021; Goodyear, Arizona, USA; Cincinnati Reds center fielder Nick Senzel (15) bats. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports /

3. Can Reds centerfielder Nick Senzel reach his full potential?

This is the big one. Nick Senzel debuted with the Cincinnati Reds in 2019 and had a successful campaign until a shoulder injury wiped out the final month of his rookie season. Last season, Senzel was riding a hot streak and an illness halted what could have been a breakout season. Senzel must be in the lineup in order for the Reds to make a playoff push in 2021.

It’s really that simple. After not adding any offensive weapons this winter, the Reds front office is banking on increased production from last year’s free agent class and their former first-round pick. With a full 162-game season, I think Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos will return to form. Shogo Akiyama is still a question mark, but the biggest question mark is Nick Senzel.

Can the former No. 2 overall pick stay healthy? That may be a bit of an unfair question, but it’s the reality of the situation. I’m a big fan of Senzel, and maintain that he can be Cincinnati’s best player. However, if he’s unable to stay on the field, he can’t help his team win games.

Nick Senzel is the perfect leadoff hitter for this Cincinnati team. He has the speed to swipe upwards of 20 bags this season and the power to slug 20-plus home runs. Senzel has a keen eye at the dish and has looked great this spring (.324/.419/.541).

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The debate about whether or not he can defend center field is no longer relevant either. While the 25-year-old may never be an elite centerfielder, Senzel is athletic enough to hold down the position. The question of Senzel’s impact on the team is not talent, it’s availability. If he can stay healthy, the sky’s the limit for Nick Senzel.

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