Cincinnati Reds: Predicting the Opening Day roster 2.0

Let’s try to predict the Reds 2021 Opening Day roster.

We’re two weeks from Opening Day and the outlook for the Cincinnati Reds roster may be more blurred than ever. In a surprising twist this week, David Bell decided to insert Eugenio Suárez as the team’s starting shortstop during Tuesday’s exhibition game versus the Colorado Rockies. How will injuries and Suárez’s position change affect the 26-man roster?

Though not entirely permanent, having the ability to deploy Suárez at shortstop gives Bell the opportunity to put his eight best hitters in the lineup. In addition to Suárez moving to shortstop, Bell shifted Mike Moustakas to the hot corner, a position the veteran has manned for years. That resulted in Jonathan India getting the start at second base. Is this a preview of things to come?

While it’s certainly possible, the absence of Joey Votto on Opening Day could greatly affect the Reds lineup. The six-time All-Star and former MVP is currently on the injured list after testing positive for COVID-19. Votto could return before Opening Day, but the possibility exists that Moustakas could see more time at first base rather than third base during the early stages of 2021.

Votto isn’t the only Reds player absent from the lineup. Shogo Akiyama will start the 2021 season on the IL, and Sonny Gray may as well. Tejay Antone left his last appearance and is currently day-to-day. Wade Miley suffered a hamstring injury earlier this spring, but made his last start. Lucas Sims and Amir Garrett have yet to appear this spring, but appear to be on their way back.

The Cincinnati Reds Opening Day lineup looks to be very fluid. The starting rotation has yet to be determined and the shortstop position is still a question mark. Let’s take a stab at what the 26-man roster will look like on April 1st.

Reds starting rotation (5)

Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Wade Miley, Michael Lorenzen, Tejay Antone

Three of these five pitchers are virtual locks to be part of the starting rotation. David Bell will likely run out Luis Castillo on April 1st versus the St. Louis Cardinals. This will be Castillo’s second Opening Day start in the last three years. Sonny Gray, if he were healthy, would undoubtedly be part of the five-man rotation.

Following Castillo is likely to be Tyler Mahle. Last year, Mahle solidified his standing with the Reds organization. An injury to Anthony DeSclafani gave Mahle the opening he needed and the right-hander didn’t look back. Mahle has the potential to be a key cog in the middle of the Cincinnati rotation this season.

Miley will be part of the starting rotation, though there are better options within the organization. Miley gives Bell a left-handed, veteran presence on the mound. However, if last season was any indication of what we’re likely to see from the southpaw, Miley could lose his spot in the rotation by July.

Michael Lorenzen has been a reliever for the past few seasons, but the Reds are going to see if the athletic right-hander can handle the rigors of the starting rotation. Lorenzen is another player who may fall out of the rotation by midseason if he fails to produce.

Finally, look for Cincinnati to turn to Tejay Antone as the team’s No. 5 starter out of camp. Provided he’s healthy, Antone could join the rotation and be an above-average starter in the backend of the Reds rotation. Antone has the potential to be one of the stars of this team heading into the future.

Reds starting lineup (8)

Mike Moustakas, Joey Votto, Eugenio Suárez, Tucker Barnhart, Nick Senzel, Jesse Winker, Nick Castellanos, Jonathan India

I’m being optimistic here, but I believe Joey Votto will be the starting first baseman for the Cincinnati Reds on Opening Day. Votto has been sidelined since testing positive fro COVID-19, but should he be free of symptoms, the six-time All-Star would have cleared Major League Baseball’s protocols for returning to the field by April 1st.

While he’s had two errors in as many games, putting Eugenio Suárez at shortstop gives the Cincinnati Reds their best offensive lineup. Moving Mike Moustakas to third base and inserting Jonathan India at second base gives Cincinnati a potent set of bats in the starting lineup.

With Shogo Akiyama on the injured list, Cincinnati’s starting centerfielder on Opening Day will be Nick Senzel. This is as close to a make-or-break season for the 25-year-old, as he’ll try to put his injury history behind him and focus on being a key piece of the lineup night in and night out.

Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos will occupy the corner outfield positions. Both players are not well known for their defense, but they’ll let their bats do the talking. Castellanos has quietly had a phenomenal spring in Goodyear.

Finally, look for Tucker Barnhart to start the season behind the plate for the Reds. He may not end the season as the starting backstop in Cincinnati however, as young rookie Tyler Stephenson is looking to cement his place among the regulars on this year’s team.

Reds relievers (8)

Amir Garrett, Lucas Sims, José De León, Sean Doolittle, Cionel Pérez, Cam Bedrosian, Jesse Biddle, Jeff Hoffman

The competition for the final few spots on the Cincinnati Reds roster will come down to a few bullpen arms. The competition for the team’s closer has yet to commence this spring, as both Amir Garrett and Lucas Sims have been sidelined to this point. Both are expected to pitch very soon and are on track for Opening Day.

José De León has been solid during spring training and may be in the running for spot in the Reds rotation. Ultimately, I think the right-hander finds a home in the bullpen as David Bell’s go-to guy when his starter struggles.

Jeff Hoffman could be used in a similar role to De León, and has an outside chance to make the starting rotation as well. Hoffman came up as a starting pitcher with the Colorado Rockies, but his ineffectiveness led to his demotion and eventual trade to Cincinnati.

A pair of lefties have been impressive this spring. Cionel Pérez and Jesse Biddle have been lights out. Biddle is non-roster invitee, so a spot on the 40-man roster would have to open up, and Cincinnati can easily create the space by placing Brandon Bailey on the 60-day IL following his Tommy John surgery.

Sean Doolittle was the Reds lone major league free agent signing, and Cam Bedrosian gives Cincinnati a veteran right-hander to plug in at the back of the bullpen. Sal Romano, Art Warren, and even Brandon Finnegan have a chance to make the roster as well, but I think they’ll fail to make the cut.