Cincinnati Reds: 3 reasons to avoid trading for Blake Snell

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ARLINGTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 27: Blake Snell #4 of the Tampa Bay Rays reacts as he is being taken out of the game. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) /

Blake Snell is the not the answer for the Reds is Trevor Bauer leaves via free agency.

It’s being reported by MLB.com writer Mark Feinsand that the Tampa Bay Rays are fielding offers for pitcher Blake Snell. While all of Reds Country waits with bated-breath, hoping that their team will re-sign Cy Young-winner Trevor Bauer, a trade for Snell is one the Cincinnati Reds front office should avoid at all costs.

According the Feinsand, the Rays have reportedly made it known that they are willing to listen to offers for Snell. The left-hander, a former Cy Young-winner in his own right, has been with Tampa Bay since he was drafted in 2011. Snell is in the middle of a five-year/$50M contract that expires following the 2023 season.

Some fans would look at that contract, Snell’s track record, and the likely departure of Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani and say, “Sign me up, coach.” However, there’s no need for the Cincinnati Reds to take the bait. Snell, while a solid starting pitcher, should remain off the team’s radar this offseason.

1. The Reds should be leery when the Rays are ready to trade a player.

If there’s one thing that the majority of baseball fans know, it’s this; the Tampa Bay Rays are extraordinary when it comes to acquiring talent. Tampa Bay’s scouting department appears to be playing chess while every other front office is playing checkers. That pain is known all too well by the Reds NL Central rivals – the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates.

Randy Arozarena became a household name during the postseason, but it’s doubtful that many fans knew his name prior to his ascension with the Rays. Arozarena was once part of the Cardinals organization and was shipped to Tampa Bay in exchange for Matthew Liberatore, a catching prospect, and a draft pick. Thank goodness Arozarena is no longer in St. Louis, right?

The Rays also made a deal with the Pirates in 2018. Tampa Bay sent their most talented pitcher (sound familiar?) to Pittsburgh in exchange for Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and a player to be named later. That talented pitcher was Chris Archer, who’s bombed since going to the Steel City and is now a free agent.

The Cincinnati Reds struck a deal with the Tampa Bay Rays back in 2019 when they acquired Curt Casali for cash. Maybe they should quit while they’re ahead. The Rays organization has proven time and time again that they know what they’re doing. Tampa Bay will be able to get a haul for Snell, something we’ll discuss in detail later. Every team should be leery of doing business with the Rays.

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 27: Blake Snell #4 of the Tampa Bay Rays reacts during the fifth inning. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) /

2. The Reds would have to overpay to land Blake Snell.

On the surface, Blake Snell’s contract looks like a steal. The left-hander is owed $10.5M in 2021, $12.5M in 2022, and $16M in 2023. For a starting pitcher who’s got a Cy Young to his credit, that’s incredible value. The Reds have a similar deal for All-Star third baseman Eugenio Suárez. But, what will it cost in order to make deal?

That’s where the Cincinnati Reds, and every other major league team for that matter, will have to overpay if they hope to land Snell’s services. The Rays know what they have, and with the free agent market virtually void of any talented starter sans Trevor Bauer, Tampa Bay can afford to ask for the moon in return for Snell.

What would that look like for the Cincinnati Reds. Going back to 2018 when the Rays traded Chris Archer, Tampa Bay was able to land the Pirates No. 1 prospect Austin Meadows and their former No. 1 prospect Tyler Glasnow. That would amount to something like the Reds dealing Nick Senzel and Hunter Greene to the Rays, and probably more considering how scare the starting pitching market is.

Would a combination of Greene, Senzel, and maybe Jonathan India be enough to pry Snell away from Tampa Bay. Perhaps. Should the Reds make that move? Absolutely not. One could argue that Blake Snell would be the third-best pitcher on the Cincinnati Reds roster. If the Reds are going to give up that kind of haul, they should go “all-in” to land Francisco Lindor.

CLEVELAND, OHIO – JULY 09: Luis Castillo #58 and Sonny Gray #54 of the Cincinnati Reds during the 2019 MLB All-Star Game. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

3. The Reds already have an imposing starting rotation.

It seems odd, doesn’t it? The Cincinnati Reds are likely to lose 40% of their starting rotation from the 2020 season, and yet, they’re still likely to be one of the most formidable forces in the National League. While Trevor Bauer took home the Cy Young this season, both Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo have the ability to do the same in 2021.

Regardless of where Trevor Bauer ends up in 2021, the Reds starting rotation will still be strong. Gray and Castillo are returning, as is Tyler Mahle. The right-hander proved his worth this past season and looks to be on track to finally reaching his potential as a solid piece in the middle of the Cincinnati starting rotation.

While I’m not overly excited about Wade Miley getting a second chance, the southpaw is likely to be the No. 4 starter heading into the season. If Miley can stay healthy and locate his pitches, he can be a solid contributor next season.

The fifth spot in the rotation is a toss-up between former starter Michael Lorenzen and rookie surprise Tejay Antone. Both figure to be in the mix for the No. 5 spot in the Reds rotation. Former No. 7 overall pick Nick Lodolo will also get his shot, as will highly-touted prospect Tony Santillan. Cincinnati has great depth in the pitching department.

Next. 3 players CIN wishes was still on the roster

The same cannot be said about the team’s hitting. The Cincinnati Reds offense was not very good at all last season, and if the Reds want to make a blockbuster trade this offseason it should be for the services of Francisco Lindor or Trevor Story. Adding one of those prominent shortstops would indirectly help out the pitching staff.

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Blake Snell is the not the answer for the Reds is Trevor Bauer leaves via free agency.

1. The Reds should be leery when the Rays are ready to trade a player.

2. The Reds would have to overpay to land Blake Snell.

3. The Reds already have an imposing starting rotation.

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