Cincinnati Reds: 5 players to lock up with a contract extension

1. Luis Castillo, Reds starting pitcher

While many Reds fans want the team to pursue signing Trevor Bauer, I’d prefer to see Cincinnati keep one of their own. Luis Castillo is entering his first year of arbitration eligibility and will be due a hefty raise. MLB Trade Rumors predicts Castillo could expect to take home between $3M-$5.8M this offseason. It’s time to give La Piedra a contract extension.

Castillo has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the National League over the past two seasons. While he got off to a rocky start in 2020, Castillo righted the ship and performed incredibly well down the stretch, including the playoff loss to the Atlanta Braves in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series.

Luis Castillo completed his 2020 campaign with a 4-6 record and 3.21 ERA in 12 starts. Early season struggles had fans worried. La Piedra was 0-5 in his first seven starts and had a 4.10 ERA while allowing opposing batters to hit .267. That wasn’t the version of Castillo we all knew and loved. Thankfully, he got things turned around in September.

Over the final five games of 2020, Castillo went 4-1 with a 2.20 ERA while striking out 37 batters in 32.2 innings of work. Opposing batters couldn’t even get above the Mendoza line against the right-hander during the last month of the season and Castillo performed exceedingly well against the Braves in his first postseason start. Castillo went 5.1 innings, allowing just one run while striking out seven.

Aaron Nola’s extension with the Philadelphia Phillies might be the benchmark for Luis Castillo should the Cincinnati Reds entertain the idea of extension their young ace. Nola’s four-year/$45M contract extension bought out his three arbitration years while also tacking on an additional year. A contract with an average annual value of $10M seems to be about what Castillo could expect.

2. Michael Lorenzen, Reds pitcher

This could be a tricky contract to figure out, but it’s one that the Cincinnati Reds should explore. Michael Lorenzen is entering his final year of arbitration eligibility, and unless the two sides come to an agreement before the end of the 2021 season, Lorenzen will be a free agent next winter. The question is, what will Lorenzen’s role be going forward?

Is Michael Lorenzen a starter or a reliever? The answer to that question will greatly impact how much money Lorenzen can hope to earn with a long-term deal. We saw Lorenzen start two games for the Reds in 2020 and with the likely departure of Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani, it’s quite possible for the right-hander to be in the conversation for a role in Cincinnati rotation in 2021.

Lorenzen is arguably the best athlete on this Reds team, and one of the better athletes in all of Major League Baseball. His versatility is second to none, as we’ve seen Lorenzen on the mound, in the field and in the batter’s box. Following the ineptitude of the Reds offense last season, perhaps David Bell should have turned to Lorenzen a time or two as a pinch hitter.

So, with Lorenzen being a pitcher first, a pinch-runner second, an outfielder third and a pinch-hitter fourth, how in the world do you put together a long-term contract? That’s for the analytics geniuses within the Cincinnati organization to figure out because I have no idea.

What I do know is that Michael Lorenzen is a fan favorite whose versatility offers the Reds a lot of options. While he struggled early on during the 2020 campaign, he put his woeful performances behind him and over his final 11 appearances, Lorenzen owned a 1.91 ERA while striking out 29 batters over 28.1 innings.

3. Tyler Mahle, Reds starting pitcher

This one may not be as pressing as the names previously mentioned, but the Cincinnati Reds might do well to include Tyler Mahle in their long-term plans. At worst, Mahle is a back-of-the-rotation starter that can go five-plus innings on a consistent basis. At his best, Mahle has the potential to elevate himself to a No. 2 or No. 3 starter.

If the Reds chose to extend Tyler Mahle, they’d be a taking a gamble, but it may pay off big time. Mahle is entering his first year of arbitration eligibility and is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to make between $1.5M-$2.5M in 2021. That number has the chance to go up drastically if Mahle mimics the type of performance we saw from him in 2020.

We saw Mahle improve in almost every area this past season. For player not projected to be on the Opening Day roster before the season began, Mahle exceeded all expectations in 2020. The right-hander filled in admirably for injured starters Wade Miley and Anthony DeSclafani, going 2-2 with a 3.59 ERA.

Diving into the stats a little deeper, according to FanGraphs, Tyler Mahle drastically improved his strikeout-rate from 23.2% (2019) to 29.9%. His HR/9, a big issue for Mahle last season, dropped from 1.74 (2019) to 1.13 (2020).

The Reds gave Miley a $15M contract in order to be the team’s No. 4 starter. Miley was 0-3 with a 5.65 ERA in an injury-plagued season that saw him play in just six games. DeSclafani’s final year of arbitration eligibility netted him a $5.9M contract last season. Mahle looks to be part of the Reds long-term plans, perhaps they should offer him a contract extension while they can still afford it.

4. Amir Garrett, Reds relief pitcher

How long do the Reds want to count on AG? Amir Garrett put up great numbers in 2020 and will certainly be given a nice pay increase as he heads into next season. According to MLB Trade Rumors, Garrett can expect to take home between $900K-$1.4M next season. Might the Reds look to extend their lone left-handed reliever.

This is a tricky one for me as the life of a reliever is inconsistent from year to year. That said, Amir Garrett has done nothing but get better each and every season. Garrett’s ERA has gone from 4.29 in 2018 to 2.45 last season. His K/9, according to FanGraphs, has gone from 10.14 in 2018 to 12.76 in 2020.

Perhaps most impressive is Garrett’s strikeout-rate which has gone from 31.7% in 2019 to 37.7% this past season. His WHIP even dropped from 1.41 in 2019 to 0.93 last season. Amir Garrett is getting better each year and that should scare opposing left-handed batters in the National League Central.

Against left-handed hitters, Garrett allowed a paltry .043 batting average and .258 OPS. That is flat-out dominant. However, against right-handed hitters, Garrett gave up four home runs and allowed right-handed batters to put up a .807 OPS against him. That is an area he must improve upon heading into 2021.

Garrett is a fringe extension candidate for me because of the position he plays. Amir Garrett can shut down left-handed bats, something that is needed in every bullpen. However, his niche for getting out left-handed hitters may not be as valuable as other positions on this team. If Garrett shows the ability to handle right-handers, then he could be a future close for the Reds.

5. Archie Bradley, Reds relief pitcher

Archie Bradley did not get much of chance to prove his worth in 2020. The former first-round pick was traded to the Reds at the deadline. In exchange, Cincinnati dealt utility player Josh VanMeter and outfield prospect Stuart Fairchild to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Bradley made just 16 appearances last season, six of which were with the Reds.

Bradley’s story is similar to that of Cincinnati hurlers Michael Lorenzen, Amir Garrett and Raisel Iglesias. Once a starting pitcher, Bradley excelled as a reliever. The right-hander has a fastball that sits in the high-90s and has been known to touch 100-MPH. He also has a nice 12-6 knuckle curveball.

Bradley earned his first save in 2017 and became the D-Backs closer in 2019. Bradley saved 18 games that season, throwing 71.2 innings and striking out 87 batters. While Bradley’s strikeout-rate hit a career-high of 27.4% that season, according to FanGraphs, he also posted a walk-rate of 11.4%.

The closer’s role currently belongs to long-time Reds reliever Raisel Iglesias, but his results the past two seasons have caused Reds Country to collectively hold their breath when the bullpen doors open in the ninth inning. Iglesias, in my opinion, is much better than many fans give him credit for, but his penchant for giving up the long ball is problematic.

Bradley’s 0.83 HR/9 is slightly better than Iglesias’ (1.05 HR/9) and may give David Bell more confidence heading into the ninth inning with a lead. Bradley has given up 15 home runs over the past three seasons, while Iggy has surrendered 25.

Archie Bradley is entering his final year of arbitration eligibility and, according to MLB Trade Rumors, can expect to earn between $4.3M-$5.7M next season. Signing Bradley could be costly, as some of the best closers in the game are making upwards of $19M per year. Maybe a contract similar to what Ryan Pressly signed (two-years/$17.5M) before the 2020 season is a fair comp.