Reds news: Trevor Bauer is candidate for $18.9-million qualifying offer

Trevor Bauer will certainly reject the Reds qualifying offer.

While merely a formality, it’s worth noting that the Cincinnati Reds will likely offer Trevor Bauer a qualifying offer this offseason. Bauer will no doubt reject the offer, choosing rather to explore free agency. However, extending the offer will net the Reds a draft pick if the right-hander signs elsewhere this winter.

Evan Drellich of The Athletic reported yesterday that the qualifying offer this winter will be valued at $18.9M, which is a $1.1M increase from last year’s $17.8M figure. Cincinnati will assuredly extend that offer to Bauer, and he’ll then have 10 days to either accept or reject the offer. I have zero doubts that Bauer will choose the latter.

That’s not to say that Trevor Bauer won’t consider the Cincinnati Reds as a possible destination this winter. In fact, I believe the Reds have a very good shot at keeping Bauer provided the free agent contract they offer is in the same ballpark as other potential suitors.

The qualifying offer guarantees the Reds a draft pick in the event that Bauer signs elsewhere. The size of the contract will determine the level of draft compensation. If Bauer signs a deal for less than $50M, Cincinnati will receive a pick in the Competitive Balance Round B, but if he signs for more than $50M, the Reds will receive a draft pick after Round 1 of the 2021 MLB Draft.

It all becomes very technical, and the language and guaranteed money in Bauer’s next contract will dictate where the Reds additional draft pick may fall. The fact that Bauer has expressed interest in the past about signing only one-year contracts might preclude the right-hander from securing a deal in excess of $50M, meaning Cincinnati might be staring at a pick in Competitive Balance Round B.

What kind of contract might Trevor Bauer find on the open market is anyone’s guess, but the average annual value (AAV) will most certainly be at least $30M. Last season, Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg landed deals with an AAV of $36M and $35M respectively.

Trevor Bauer put up some of the best numbers in the league this season and may walk away with the NL Cy Young Award. It’s going to cost a pretty penny if the Cincinnati Reds hope to keep Bauer in the Queen City, but even if they don’t, they will still receive compensation.