Reds vs Twins: Three games in Minnesota will determine playoff berth

The final weekend has arrived with the Reds on the cusp of a playoff berth.

Reds Country we’re almost there. The finish line is in sight, but one pivotal test remains as the Cincinnati Reds (29-28) travel to the Twin Cities to face an excellent Minnesota club. Another huge series is nothing new for the Redlegs as they’ve been in playoff mode since a weekend series in St. Louis earlier this month.

Over the past two weeks, the Reds have captured series from the Cardinals, Pirates, White Sox and Brewers to salvage a 2020 campaign that was on the brink of being one of the most disappointing in the club’s history.

Credit excellent pitching, timely home runs and shrewd decision making from manager David Bell to put the Reds in position for their first playoff appearance since the 2013 season. Since September 1st no team in the National League has captured more than the Reds 14 victories.

In addition to the 14 W’s, the 76 runs they’ve allowed this month are the third-fewest in the senior circuit thanks to outstanding starting pitching and a bullpen who has done a complete 180-degree turn to overcome a disastrous opening month.

Not to be outdone, the playoff-bound Minnesota Twins have an MLB leading 15 wins in this final month to propel them into first place in the ultra-competitive AL Central Division. The Twins pitching staff has surrendered an AL low 65 runs since the beginning of September.

Anticipate a low scoring weekend series between the best the American and National League have had to offer this month. With a postseason trip hanging in the balance the, 2020 resilient Reds have one more obstacle to vanquish their six-year playoff drought.

The Twins modus operandi will be familiar to Reds Country.

It’s a fairly simple approach the Minnesota Twins (35-22) employ. Hit plenty of home runs and rely heavily on an excellent pitching staff to make the frequent round-trippers hold up. This is a formula Reds Country is all too familiar with this season. The recipe is working in the Queen City and it’s being perfected in the Twin Cities.

Entering play yesterday, the Twins 91 homers were tied for the most in the American League. The team features a quartet of players who have blasted 13 or more home runs and that’s not even including perineal power threat in third baseman Josh Donaldson. However, when the Twins aren’t launching bombs toward the Canadian border, they struggle to dent the plate.

As a team, the Twins are slashing a pedestrian .242./.316/.431 which is essentially league average in the junior circuit. Once the Twins reach base they are a stationary bunch. Their 14 stolen bases on the season are the fewest in the AL. It should be a relatively stress-free weekend for Reds backstops Tucker Barnhart and Curt Casali.

When it comes to the pitching mound, the Minnesota staff will be the best group the Redlegs have faced since battling their in-state rivals the Cleveland Indians. The Twins are second in the AL with a 3.52 team ERA and their 507 strikeouts are third among their American League foes. Former Dodger Kenta Maeda is having a spectacular season sporting a 6-1 record with a 2.70 ERA in 11 starts.

If the Twins own a late lead, it will be an uphill battle for the Reds to overcome. The Minnesota bullpen is second among AL relief corps averaging 10.46 K/9 rate and are third with a 3.56 ERA. In recent days Twins manager, Rocco Baldelli has turned to a familiar face to Reds Country to close out games.

Thirteen-year veteran and Reds nemesis Sergio Romo has picked up a couple of saves over the past 10 days. When Romo enters the game, it’s a virtual lock the Twins are headed for victory.  Minnesota is 18-5 in games when Romo has made an appearance.

As all of Reds Country knows, there’s still unfinished business with the 37-year-old right-hander dating back to the 2012 NL Division Series when he was a member of the San Francisco Giants, nailing down the save in the deciding Game Five contest with the winning runs aboard.

Nelson Cruz shows no signs of slowing down.

A 40-year-old should not be competing for the MVP award, however, it’s safe to say Nelson Cruz never received the memo. Beginning play today, the right-hander slugger leads the AL with a 178 OPS+ and 1.026 OPS marks. In addition to a slash line of .314/.403/.623, it’s debatable that Cruz is better than ever.

These numbers are nothing new for Nelson Cruz. Just last year, Cruz put together numbers that earned him his third Silver Slugger Award and a ninth-place finish in the MVP balloting. Producing a slash line of .311/.392/.639 with 41 homers and 108 RBIs, he made quite a first impression in the Twin Cities.

The six-time All-Star is picking up right where he left last year. Not only is he providing his usual power numbers, but his 2.0 fWAR leads all American League designated hitters and is good enough for eighth overall in the junior circuit. Cruz has led American League designated hitters in fWAR two of the last three years and seems destined to make it three of four.

Since 2014, Cruz has hit at least 37 home runs in each season and his 16 round-trippers throughout the shortened 2020 campaign are good enough for a tie for fourth in the junior circuit. Since making his debut in 2005, only Albery Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Edwin Encarnacion have hit more than the 417 missiles that Cruz has launched.

Let’s hope for the Reds and Trevor Bauer’s sake it’s not a win or go home situation Sunday because Nelson Cruz has owned the Cincinnati right-hander. Facing each other 20 times, Cruz has compiled a .467/.600/.800 slash line. In other words, the Cincinnati needs to take care of business as soon as possible and not give the Twins slugger the opportunity to end their season.

When the Reds have needed him most, Geno has delivered.

This season has not been a smooth ride for anyone, but on the field, it’s provided more than it’s usual challenges for Reds third baseman Eugenio Suárez.  Across the board, Geno is producing his weakest numbers with the Reds since his 2016 season. Even with the slash numbers falling below his normal standards, Suárez is delivering knockout punches in crucial situations.

Twice in the recent three-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers, Eugenio Suárez delivered a big fly that essentially decided the outcome. In the series opener, with the Reds trailing 1-0 in the bottom of the sixth, Suárez smacked a two-run round-tripper off Brandon Woodruff to put the Redlegs ahead to stay.

However, Suárez had to don his Superman cape once again in the series finale. With the Cincinnati Reds clinging to a 3-1 lead, Suárez belted a three-run blast off left-hander Alex Claudio in the bottom of the fifth to put the game out of reach and propel the Reds to a must-win series victory. Additionally, there are signs that Geno is returning to his former All-Star self.

Over the last four weeks, Eugenio Suárez is slashing .256/.358/.644 with 10 homers and 26 RBIs. Those are the type of numbers Reds Country have become accustomed to seeing in Geno’s six years in Cincinnati. One more great weekend performance from the Reds third baseman may lead to him playing in the postseason for the first time since his rookie season in 2014 as a member of the Detroit Tigers.

Prediction

It’s been a long time since the term “magic number” was uttered so excitedly by Reds Country, but that’s virtually the only topic of conversation going into tonight’s contest against the Twins. Following the Brewers loss to the Cardinals last night, the Reds magic number is two. As a result, the Reds could conceivably punch their playoff ticket this evening.

However, something’s got to give this weekend. The Reds are winners of eight of their last 10 games, while the Twins are a mind-boggling 23-5 at home. That’s not a misprint. Nevertheless, there’s no backing into the postseason for the Redlegs, as they take two of the three and begin preparations for Wednesday night’s playoff game.