Reds vs Brewers: Preview, pitching matchups and prediction

The streaking Reds host the charging Brewers in a battle for a postseason berth.

Nobody said it would be easy, Reds Country. Despite taking two of three from an excellent Chicago White Sox club, the Cincinnati Reds (27-27) managed to lose a game in the standings for the final playoff spot in the National League. Thanks for nothing Kansas City.

The Milwaukee Brewers (26-26) swept a three-game weekend series from the Kansas City Royals setting the stage for possibly the biggest series ever between the National League Central Division rivals.

One of the unique aspects of this year’s playoff positioning is there’s no play-in game should teams end their seasons with identical records. Currently, the Reds own the tiebreaker over the Brewers due to leading the head-to-head season series four games to three. If the Reds capture the series beginning tonight, they’ll remain in control should they finish the season with the same record as the Brew Crew.

However, since it’s the Reds, things are never that straight forward and easy. The San Francisco Giants (26-26) are sitting with a .500 record as well. Yet, the Reds own this tiebreaker as well based on the best intradivision record.

Entering play tonight, the Redlegs are 19-18 within the NL Central, while the Giants are 15-17 against their division rivals in the NL West. Our old friend Johnny Cueto is on the hill tonight for the Giants, and for the first time in my life, I hope he gets rocked. It’s strange times indeed.

Basically all of this is a long way of saying, if the Reds keep playing winning baseball, they’ll be in the playoffs. However, the road to their first postseason appearance since 2013 begins at Great American Ball Park with Milwaukee standing in the Redlegs way.

Brewers face a tough task during the final week

If the Milwaukee Brewers are still playing baseball next week, they will have earned it. Currently, the Brewers are on the outside looking in at the playoff race due to a tiebreaker, but face two of the teams they need to overtake in the Cincinnati Reds and the St. Louis Cardinals during this final week.

Unfortunately, the Brewers will close out their 2020 regular season campaign away from Miller Park with three games in Cincinnati and a staggering five-game set in St. Louis beginning Thursday.

Beginning play yesterday the Brewers are the second-best hitting team within the NL Central.  Nevertheless, that’s a backhand compliment because as a team Milwaukee is only hitting .227 which is good enough for just 12th in the senior circuit. Surprisingly, for a lineup that features Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura and Ryan Braun, the Brew Crew have not hit for a ton of power this year.

Sporting a 10th best .398 slugging rate among NL squads, the Brewers have only hit a league-average 66 round-trippers. Meanwhile, their 74 doubles are well below the NL average of 81 two-baggers. Unfortunately, the Brewers who are not producing their usual power numbers,  have difficulty just putting the ball in play.

Milwaukee’s 26.3% strikeout rate is the highest in the National League. Look for this rate to only increase over the next three days because the Cincinnati pitching staff owns a 10.9 K/9 rate which is the best in the league. Expect to see plenty of Brewers walking back to their third base side dugout with their lumber still in hand.

You can’t mention the Brewers without talking about their exceptional bullpen. Milwaukee relievers lead the NL with a 12.1 K/9 rate. In addition, their 4.03 pen ERA is third-best among senior circuit relief corps. It will be of monumental importance for the Reds to jump out to early leads and not allow Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell to unleash his arsenal of bullpen weapons against them.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs Brewers

Monday night’s series opener is a huge game and Reds manager David Bell is giving the ball to his hottest pitcher, Luis Castillo (3-5 3.03 ERA). La Piedra has a tough task in front of him as Brandon Woodruff (2-4 3.45 ERA) will toe the rubber for the Brewers. If Castillo is able to duplicate his recent success, the Reds should be on the smiling side of the scoreboard.

In his last three starts, Castillo is 3-0 and has allowed just three runs in 23 innings. Additionally, he’s fanned 24 and looked as dominant as ever. Although, Castillo’s normal dominance has not impressed the Brewers. La Piedra is 1-3 with a 5.04 ERA in his last five outings against Milwaukee. Tonight is the perfect opportunity to prove the Beer Makers are not his kryptonite.

Right-hander Brandon Woodruff hasn’t won a game in the nearly a month, but, of course, that lone victory came in an August 25th contest at Miller Park when he defeated the Redlegs by tossing six innings of two-run ball and fanning eight.

Reds legend Joey Votto has been Woodruff’s nemesis over the years.  The Cincinnati Reds first baseman is 6-for-14 with two homers lifetime against the 2019 All-Star. Votto has been the Reds hottest hitter of late.

Sonny Gray (5-3 3.94 ERA) makes his return to the mound Tuesday night following a stint on the IL due to back stiffness. Gray will square off against southpaw Brett Anderson (3-3 4.38 ERA) of the Brewers. Anyone in Reds Country who has watched Sonny Gray over the past two years could tell something was not clicking with their ace in his last two appearances.

Throwing a total of four innings, Gray allowed 11 runs on as many hits while walking six and striking out five. That’s not the Sonny Gray that Reds Country has become accustomed to seeing.  Let’s hope Gray returns to his normal fantastic self. Before his last two starts, he was cruising towards Cy Young contention once again with a 5-1 record and a 1.94 ERA. This is the Sonny Gray the Reds need Tuesday night.

Soft tossing left-hander Brett Anderson has struggled in his two previous starts at GABP. The 12-year veteran is 1-1 with a 5.59 ERA and an eyebrow-raising 1.76 WHIP over 9.2 innings. Look for David Bell to load the lineup with right-handed bats versus Anderson. Righties are slashing .296/.336/.472 against the Oklahoma native. I’m pretty sure we’ll see Aristides Aquino in Tuesday’s lineup.

Pitching on three-days rest, Trevor Bauer (4-4 1.80 ERA) will oppose Adrian Houser (1-5 5.33 ERA) in Wednesday night’s series finale. Bauer will be starting just his third game over his nine-year carer on three-days rest. In his previous two starts on short rest, he’s tossed just a combined nine innings allowing 11 hits and surrendering three round-trippers.

Even though Bauer has been a vocal advocate for pitching on three-days rest, let’s hope history does not repeat itself. Don’t expect to see the newly acquired Daniel Vogelbach in the Brewers lineup Wednesday night. Bauer has simply overwhelmed the burly left-handed slugger in their past matchups. Vogelbach is hitless in nine at-bats against the Reds right-hander with four punchouts.

Milwaukee right-hander Adrian Houser is not what you would refer to as an innings eater. During the month of September, he’s logged five innings just once in four starts. The Redlegs rocked Houser in their one meeting this year. Scoring four runs in as many innings, the Reds collected nine hits and a free pass against Houser. Eugenio Suárez and Jesse Winker have each taken him deep twice in a combined 17 at-bats.

Power hitting veteran is enjoying Milwaukee

Following a disappointing 2019 season, Jedd Gyorko’s career was at a crossroads. Slashing just .174/.248/.250 in 92 at-bats between the Cardinals and Dodgers, Gyorko had to wonder if his career might be over at age 31 and eight big league seasons. However, the Brewers decided to take a chance on the veteran infielder this past January and needless to say it’s paid dividends.

Beginning play Sunday, Gyorko is setting career highs in average, on-base percentage and slugging. In 88 at-bats this season he’s slashing .284/.369/.580 with eight homers and 16 RBIs. His current 149 OPS+ is also a career-best. How has Gyorko turned in such an impressive 2020 following his nightmarish 2019 campaign?

For starters, he’s abusing left-handed pitching. Producing a slash line of .275/.423/.700 with an incredible 1.123 OPS, five of Gyorko’s 11 hits against southpaws have left the yard. Next, you do not want to fall behind in the count to Gyorko. When the West Virginia native gets ahead, he makes the opposition pay.

Slashing .481/.634/1.222, Gyorko has six homers and a 1.856 OPS that would make Babe Ruth jealous. However, it’s a different story when Gyorko falls behind. He’s a completely different hitter when the pitcher establishes control of the count.

Hitting just .130 with a .125 OBP Gyorko is almost an automatic out. My advice to the Cincinnati Reds pitching staff is to establish strike one and put Gyorko on the defensive. That should not be a problem for Castillo, Gray and Bauer.

Thorough his eight-year career, Jedd Gyorko has found GABP to be a house of horrors. In any ballpark where he’s played more than five games, his .146 batting average in the Queen City is the lowest of his career. Hitting just two home runs in 82 at-bats at GABP, Gyorko has also fanned 22 times and collected only six bases on balls. Here’s to history repeating itself.