The Reds welcome the Pirates to town with the postseason in sight

The Reds begin their final homestand by welcoming the Pirates.

To quote Jim Carrey’s Lloyd Christmas character in Dumb & Dumber “so you’re telling me there’s a chance?” While the Cincinnati Reds (21-26) playoff odds may not be as dire as the one-in-a-million odds Lloyd received, they’re still a long shot despite winning their first series in over a month this past weekend in St. Louis.

Entering play today, the Reds trail the Cardinals by 2.5 games for second place in the National League Central and an automatic berth while also staring at a two-game deficit to the San Francisco Giants for the final Wild Card spot. In other words, the Reds need some help, but the schedule is on their side.

Of the Reds final 13 games, 10 will be played at Great American Ball Park with the Pirates being the first opponent on the schedule. The Reds and Bucs have split their first six games during the 2020 campaign, but this is a series where the Redlegs need to take care of business and place themselves squarely in playoff contention.

Of course, nothing is ever easy for the Reds, as word came yesterday they will be fighting for their postseason lives without the services of Sonny Gray for a minimum of another week. The club placed the team’s ace on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to Friday, due to a  back strain. Really, this shouldn’t come as a shock to Reds Country.

Anyone who has watched Gray’s last two outings could tell he was far from the dominating pitcher we have become accustomed to seeing. Additionally, back injuries are always tricky for pitchers; just ask Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw. There’s a very real chance Gray won’t throw another pitch for the Redlegs this year.

However, help could be on the horizon. Yesterday manager David Bell stated outfielder Nick Senzel may be activated today from the injured list. Senzel has not played since August 14th, but his bat and speed would be a much-welcomed addition to the lineup.

As disappointing and inconsistent as the Cincinnati Reds have been this year, the team still has a chance, with two weeks remaining in the season, and we haven’t been able to say that since 2013.  It’s go time.

The Bucs appear ready to close the book on 2020.

Rookie manager Derek Shelton knew he was undertaking a rebuilding job with the Pirates (14-30) when he accepted the position, but no doubt 2020 has presented more challenges than he could ever anticipate and that’s just on the field. Reliable veterans have underperformed while promising young players have produced underwhelming results.

First baseman Josh Bell has had a nightmarish season. Coming off an All-Star 2019 campaign in which he hit 37 homers and drove home 116 with a 142 OPS+, Bell is hitting just .232 with six round-trippers and a career-worst 81 OPS+ mark. However, he’s not the only Pirate to struggle at the plate.

Veteran outfielder Gregory Polanco is hitting an anemic .147 with an embarrassing 41 OPS+. Somehow he’s managed to be given 127 plate appearance by Shelton because a couple of second-year players have been nearly as awful.

Switch-hitting outfielder Bryan Reynolds appeared to be destined for greatness following a rookie season in which he slashed .314/.377/.503 with 16 home runs last year. However, the sophomore slump is alive and well in Reynolds’ case. Producing a slash line of just .180/.278/.338, the Bucs front office has to be concerned which is the real Bryan Reynolds.

Cole Tucker, another switch-hitter, has continued to scuffle at the major league level. As a rookie in 2019, he slashed just .211/.266/.361 in 147 at-bats. Unfortunately, a strong argument can be made he’s been even worse this season. The former first-rounder is slashing .230/.264/.290 with only four extra-base hits in 100 at-bats.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs Pirates

Trevor Bauer (4-3 1.74 ERA) continues his pursuit of the Cy Young Award as he toes the rubber in the first game of today’s doubleheader. The Pirates will counter with Cody Ponce (1-1 3.46 ERA). Bauer dropped his only decision this year against the Bucs as the team’s defense let him down in agonizing fashion.

Tossing six innings, Bauer allowed just one earned run while fanning seven Pirates in a Reds 4-3 defeat at PNC Park. The 29-year-old right-hander is the National League leader in WHIP and ERA+ while placing second in ERA and fifth in strikeouts.

There’s not much more the Cincinnati Reds can ask Bauer to do. If the Reds are going to claim one of the final playoff spots they can ill afford to waste Bauer’s starts. The right-hander becomes a free agent this winter, and likely has three, maybe four, regular season starts remaining.

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Ponce, a 26-year-old rookie, will be making his second start against the Reds. The California native worked the nightcap of a September 4th doubleheader in which he tossed four innings allowing three runs on as many hits in a Pirates 4-3 victory. Both Eugenio Suárez and Mike Moustakas took Ponce deep in their initial meeting.

The nightcap of tonight’s double feature has Anthony DeSclafani (1-2 7.20 ERA) taking the mound while the Pirates will give the ball to Mitch Keller (1-1 3.52 ERA). There’s no way to spin it, Disco has been terrible over the last month. He’s not tossed more than 4.1 innings in a start since a six-inning performance against the Brewers on August 8th.

Since that outing, DeSclafani’s 12.86 ERA is the highest for all MLB starters who have thrown a minimum of 10 innings. Tossing just 14 frames over his last four starts, he’s allowed 25 hits and surrendered five home runs while walking 13 and striking out only eight hitters.

With the injuries of fellow starter Wade Miley and now Sonny Gray, it’s been imperative for Disco to rise to the occasion and he simply has not come anywhere close to providing what the Cincinnati Reds need.

Right-hander Mitch Keller will be making his first start since August 1st when the following day he placed on the IL due to left side discomfort. Keller made his MLB debut against the Reds in the Queen City last year, allowing six runs on seven hits in four innings of work while taking the loss in a Cincinnati 8-1 win.

Tuesday night is where things get a little weird at GABP, as Michael Lorenzen (1-1 5.23 ERA) makes his first start in nearly two years opposing Joe Musgrove (0-4 5.40 ERA) of the Pirates. In his six seasons with the Reds, Lorenzen has made 24 starts, but 21 of those came during his 2015 rookie season. It’s hard to imagine manager David Bell treating this any more than a bullpen game.

Lorenzen has only thrown more than two innings twice this season and it took him 40 pitches to record just four outs in his last appearance against the Cubs on Thursday night. Considering the recent track record of DeSclafani, the Reds bullpen could be in shambles by the end of Tuesday night. Don’t be surprised to see a lot of movement between Prasco Park and GABP this week regarding bullpen arms.

Musgrove has dominated the Redlegs in his past three starts dating back to September of 2018. The 27-year-old is 3-0 and has allowed just four runs and one long ball over 19.1 innings. Equally as impressive he’s fanned 20 Reds while issuing just a single free pass.

One Reds player that Musgrove has absolutely owned is the $64-million man, Nick Castellanos. The Cincinnati right fielder is hitless in seven at-bats with five punchouts versus Musgrove. Perhaps that will change on Tuesday night.

La Piedra closes out the series and season finale versus Pittsburgh Wednesday night squaring off against JT Brubaker (1-1 5.34 ERA). Luis Castillo (2-5 3.44 ERA) is coming off a vintage outing against the St. Louis Cardinals. Tossing a complete-game two-hitter, he threw 112 pitches in a Reds 3-1 win. That’s the dominant version of Castillo Reds Country has been accustomed to seeing.

Castillo has not lost to the Pirates in over two years and mowed them down with relative ease in his one start against them this year. Hurling six innings of two-run ball, he fanned eight in notching his first victory of the season.

Throughout his career, Castillo been particularly cruel to Pittsburgh first baseman Josh Bell. The Bucs switch hitter is just 3-for-19 with six punchouts against La Piedra. A typical Castillo performance on Wednesday would go a long way toward securing a win the series finale.

Rookie right-hander JT Brubaker will be making his debut versus the Reds. In 30.1 innings of work, the 26-year-old Brubaker has allowed 32 hits while walking 13 and fanning 32 hitters. According to FanGraphs, Brubaker relies mostly on a fastball and slider combination with the heater averaging 93.9 MPH. Occasionally you’ll see him use a changeup or curve, although he uses those pitches less than 20% of the time.

Reds outfielder Shogo Akiyama is playing his best ball of the season.

Things have not always gone as smoothly as I’m sure Reds Country and Shogo Akiyama would have liked adjusting to playing in America. However, since the calendar has turned to September, Akiyama has been a key piece to the Reds offense.

Beginning September 1st, Akiyama is leading the Reds with a .308 batting average and .471 on-base percentage. As a matter of fact, he’s the only Reds player with a minimum of 20 at-bats who’s hitting above .243 for the month. Toss in four stolen bases and Akiyama is starting to look like the player Reds Country envisioned.

Equally as impressive is Akiyama’s ability to put the ball in play. This month, Shogo Akiyama is striking out just 8.8% of his at-bats which is tremendously better than the team’s 26.4% strikeout rate for the month. Coming off an August in which fanned 22.9% of the time, it appears Akiyama is adjusting to the league and improving this pitch recognition.

The next step in Akiyama’s evolution has to be hitting for more power. Only the Cardinals Kolten Wong has more at-bats than Akiyama’s 138 without hitting a home run,  and his .271 slugging rate is the lowest in the majors for anyone with a minimum of 130 at-bats.

However, given his ability to improve, the extra-base hits will come. But in the meantime, let’s hope Akiyama continues to reach base and provide RBI opportunities for the middle of the order. David Bell recently promoted Akiyama to the leadoff position.

Prediction

Two weeks to play and two games out of a playoff berth is what the Cincinnati Reds are facing. This is the type of series that will make or break a season. The Reds can ill afford to split this series with the Pirates, a team who owns the worst record in the senior circuit. In all honesty, the Reds need a sweep to truly get the fanbase excited about potential October baseball.

However, it’s hard to imagine the Reds sweeping anyone regardless of the opponent. Additionally, with Anthony DeSclafani and Michael Lorenzen starting two of the four games, it would be fool’s gold placing your bets on a Reds sweep. Look for the Reds to capture three of four from the Bucs and creep within striking distance of a postseason berth.