Reds vs Pirates: Preview, pitching matchups and prediction

The Reds travel to the Steel City for a critical four-game set against the Pirates.

It’s September, and despite more frustrations than triumphs this season, the Cincinnati Reds (16-21) find themselves only two games out of the final playoff spot in the National League. Looking at the schedule for the month, the Redlegs are going to have multiple opportunities to stake their claim to a postseason birth.

Beginning this afternoon, eight of the Reds next 14 games are against the worst team in the NL, this weekend’s host, the Pittsburgh Pirates. In addition, the Reds have three home games remaining with the Milwaukee Brewers who currently sit a half-game in front of the Redlegs in the playoff race. In other words, tonight is the night to begin the final push toward October baseball.

How exactly have the Reds found themselves a disappointing five games under the .500 mark? They’ve certainly earned it. The Reds have been outscored 174-146 this year, putting their Pythagorean record at, you guessed it, 16-21. Unfortunately, all aspects of Cincinnati’s game need improvement this final month.

Entering play this weekend, the Reds are slashing a paltry .215/.316/.408 as a team. Their batting average is 14th in the National League while their on-base percentage and slugging rates are well below league average as well. Even though the season is almost 40 games old, on most nights the Reds field a lineup with at least three players hitting below the Mendoza Line.

The results on the pitching mound have been better, but are still falling short of expectations. For a rotation that features Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo and Trevor Bauer, having a team ERA barely better than league average is a disappointment. If your sleep wasn’t restless enough Reds Country, the club has compiled a 5.02 ERA over the past week and a 5.92 ERA mark the last two weeks.

Even when the numbers are good, they don’t tell the true story. The defense has only been charged with 16 errors this season, which is the second-fewest in the senior circuit. However, anyone who watches this club on a regular basis knows they struggle defensively.

As a team, the 18 double plays that Cincinnati has turned are the fewest in the NL. Additionally, the five passed balls allowed by the Reds backstops are the second-most in the league. So, while flawed, this team is still in the hunt for the postseason and has the personnel to get the job the done.

Veterans have the let the Bucs down this year

The Pittsburgh Pirates (11-24) are in rebuilding mode..again. Bucs’ fans are praying it’s not another 20-year rebuild that was finally complete with a three-year stretch of postseason play from 2013 to 2015. However, a second consecutive last-place division finish is all but inevitable. There’s plenty of blame to go around.

Unfortunately for the Pittsburgh faithful, the Pirates don’t reach base or hit for power. As a team, the Pirates are hitting a meager .218 while their .280 OBP and .346 slugging marks are the worst in the National League. The 96 bases on balls the club has drawn are also a league-worst. Two anchors of the franchise have been particularly horrid this season.

All-Star first baseman Josh Bell has been a major disappointment. Slashing just .207/.272/.322 with four home runs, one has to wonder if last year was a mirage. Coming off a 2019 campaign in which he slashed .277/.367/.569 with 37 homers and 116 RBI, will the real Josh Bell please stand up?

Nevertheless, Bell’s season seems enviable compared to that of outfielder Gregory Polanco. The seven-year veteran is slashing .149/.219./.356 with 38 strikeouts in just 87 at-bats on the year. Polanco’s fWAR of -0.4 and Bell’s mark of -0.5 rank among the bottom 15 for all NL players. If these two can’t get it together, who knows where the Pirates turn?

The pitching mound has provided little solace for Steel City fans. A 5.05 team is ERA is good only for 13th among the 15 NL pitching staffs. Just throwing strikes has been a struggle for Pirate hurlers. Their 150 free passes are the second-most in the league, while their 1.438 WHIP is third from the bottom. However, it’s been the Pirates bullpen that has created next level discomfort for Bucs fans.

Even though each component of the Pirates pitching staff has posted ERA’s north of 5.00, the bullpen leads the senior circuit with 80 walks. To make matters worse, the relief corps has more blown saves, six, than saves, four, on the season. No lead this year is safe at PNC Park.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs Pirates

The Reds are 37 games into their season and Luis Castillo (0-5 4.10 ERA) is still seeking his first win of the season. He’ll toe the rubber in the first game of Friday’s doubleheader facing left-hander Steven Brault (0-1 4.00 ERA). If it wasn’t for bad luck, Castillo would have none at all.

The former All-Star has pitched much better than his record indicates, but his teammates are as responsible for his record as anyone. Cincinnati is providing just 2.2 runs in support of La Piedra per game this season which is the third-lowest mark among all NL starters.  However, if there’s one team for Castillo to get right against it’s the Pirates.

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In his last five outings versus Pittsburgh, Luis Castillo is 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA and has fanned 26 Pirates in 29 innings. He has not yielded more than one earned run against the Bucs since June of 2018.

Chances are Brault’s not going to shed any tears for La Piedra. Pittsburgh is denting the plate at a rate of just 2.0 runs in his starts which is the worst run support in the league. In a seven-inning contest, whoever scores first may have an insurmountable lead.

Lifetime the 28-year-old Brault has been a tough customer for the Reds offense. The left-hander is 4-0 with a sparkling 1.99 ERA in 31.2 frames against the Redlegs. Expect to see a lot of right-handed bats in the lineup.

For something a little different, the Reds will be the home team for Friday night’s second game at PNC Park.  This is one of the games being made up when the final two contests of the previous series between the two in Cincinnati was postponed after a member of the Reds tested positive for COVID-19.

Trevor Bauer (3-2 2.13 ERA) takes the hill opposing Pirates rookie Cody Ponce (1-1 2.00 ERA) in Friday’s nightcap. It’s been tough sledding the last couple of times to the mound for Bauer. In his last two starts, the right-hander has allowed seven runs in 11.2 innings while also surrendering four long balls. This is not the Trevor Bauer who was so dominant through this first four starts.

It’s safe to assume Bauer remembers his last visit to PNC Park. During that August 25, 2019 start, he was roughed up for seven earned runs and eight hits in just three innings of work. Away from GABP this year, Bauer is 3-1 with a 1.71 ERA and has fanned 36 opposing hitters in just 26.1 innings of work. Let’s hope for a similar road outing tonight.

Right-hander Cody Ponce will be making his second career start and it will be his debut against Cincinnati. If Ponce is anything like his last time out the Reds could be in for a long night. Versus the Cardinals, the 26-year old tossed 5.2 shutout innings against the Redbirds for his first career victory. Per FanGraphs, Ponce has a four-pitch repertoire but relies primarily on a 93 MPH fastball as well as a cutter he’ll throw 30% of the time.

Anthony DeSclafani (1-2 7.71 ERA) squares off against fellow right-hander Trevor Williams (1-5 5.50 ERA) Saturday night. It’s difficult to put into words how awful Disco has been his last three starts.  We’ll let the numbers speak for themselves. He’s 0-3 and has allowed 19 hits and 18 runs in just 10 innings. The only ones doing any dancing have been opponents…around the bases.

Unfortunately, his last five starts against the Pirates offer much hope. Disco is 0-3 with an eye-popping 8.61 ERA. But wait, it gets worse. In his last 23 frames versus Pittsburgh, he’s been torched for 37 hits and seven round-trippers. Reds Country there’s good reason you’re not feeling confident about this game.

The Pirates Trevor Williams has been terrible in his last two starts as well. Tossing 10 innings, he’s been rocked for 16 hits and 11 earned runs. However, he loves facing the Reds. Over his last five starts against the Redlegs, Williams is 3-1 with a 2.40 ERA and he’s owned Eugenio Suárez. The Reds third baseman is hitting just .150 with nine punchouts in 20 career at-bats against Williams.

Reds manager David Bell has yet to name a starter for Sunday’s finale, but the Pirates will send right-hander Chad Kuhl (1-1 3.10 ERA) to close out the series. Kuhl has been solid in his last five appearances versus the Reds.

Throwing 26.2 innings Kuhl has recorded 31 strikeouts while going 1-2 with a 3.71 ERA. Expect Cincinnati Reds legend Joey Votto to have an extra bounce in his step Sunday. Lifetime he’s slashing .538/.588/1.000 in 13 at-bats against the 27-year-old hurler.

Reds slugger Jesse Winker is fulfilling his promise

I have good news, Reds Country. The current version of Jesse Winker is no aberration. This is the type of production we can expect to see going forward. As has been the case for Jesse Winker throughout his time in the Cincinnati Reds organization, he’s proving his skeptics wrong.

A former first-round selection of the Reds in the 2012 MLB Draft out of Olympia High School in Orlando, Florida, scouts said Winker had a solid hit tool, but would probably be limited in the power department.

After playing 191 games at Triple-A Louisville, it seemed the scouts knew exactly what they were talking about. Winker hit just five homers in 679 at-bats while slugging an underwhelming .395 for the Louisville Bats.

However, once he arrived in Cincinnati in April of 2017, Jesse Winker’s been a completely different hitter. In four big league seasons, the left-handed hitting Winker has slugged .490 with 40 career round-trippers in just 845 at-bats. Currently, Winker leads the team in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging and is tied with Nick Castellanos for the team lead with 10 home runs.

Entering this season, we were constantly told Winker could not hit southpaws and would be platooned with the right-handed-hitting Philip Ervin. Beginning play today, Winker is slashing .292/.393/.625 with two homers in 24 at-bats against lefties and Ervin is now a member of the Seattle Mariners organization. Go ahead and doubt Jesse Winker, but do so at your own peril.

Prediction

If the Reds want us to take them seriously as contenders, this is the type of series where they need to take care of business. The Pirates are the worst team not only in the division but in the National League. The numbers show they can’t hit or pitch.

Look for the Redlegs to take three of four this weekend from the Pirates to inch ever closer to a Wild Card spot. It’s imperative the Reds do damage this weekend because the road trip continues with visits to Wrigley Field and Busch Stadium before returning home for the final homestand of the year.