Reds vs Pirates: Preview, pitching matchups and prediction

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MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – AUGUST 25: Luis Castillo #58 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches in the fifth inning. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs Pirates

The Reds are 37 games into their season and Luis Castillo (0-5 4.10 ERA) is still seeking his first win of the season. He’ll toe the rubber in the first game of Friday’s doubleheader facing left-hander Steven Brault (0-1 4.00 ERA). If it wasn’t for bad luck, Castillo would have none at all.

The former All-Star has pitched much better than his record indicates, but his teammates are as responsible for his record as anyone. Cincinnati is providing just 2.2 runs in support of La Piedra per game this season which is the third-lowest mark among all NL starters. However, if there’s one team for Castillo to get right against it’s the Pirates.

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In his last five outings versus Pittsburgh, Luis Castillo is 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA and has fanned 26 Pirates in 29 innings. He has not yielded more than one earned run against the Bucs since June of 2018.

Chances are Brault’s not going to shed any tears for La Piedra. Pittsburgh is denting the plate at a rate of just 2.0 runs in his starts which is the worst run support in the league. In a seven-inning contest, whoever scores first may have an insurmountable lead.

Lifetime the 28-year-old Brault has been a tough customer for the Reds offense. The left-hander is 4-0 with a sparkling 1.99 ERA in 31.2 frames against the Redlegs. Expect to see a lot of right-handed bats in the lineup.

For something a little different, the Reds will be the home team for Friday night’s second game at PNC Park. This is one of the games being made up when the final two contests of the previous series between the two in Cincinnati was postponed after a member of the Reds tested positive for COVID-19.

Trevor Bauer (3-2 2.13 ERA) takes the hill opposing Pirates rookie Cody Ponce (1-1 2.00 ERA) in Friday’s nightcap. It’s been tough sledding the last couple of times to the mound for Bauer. In his last two starts, the right-hander has allowed seven runs in 11.2 innings while also surrendering four long balls. This is not the Trevor Bauer who was so dominant through this first four starts.

It’s safe to assume Bauer remembers his last visit to PNC Park. During that August 25, 2019 start, he was roughed up for seven earned runs and eight hits in just three innings of work. Away from GABP this year, Bauer is 3-1 with a 1.71 ERA and has fanned 36 opposing hitters in just 26.1 innings of work. Let’s hope for a similar road outing tonight.

Right-hander Cody Ponce will be making his second career start and it will be his debut against Cincinnati. If Ponce is anything like his last time out the Reds could be in for a long night. Versus the Cardinals, the 26-year old tossed 5.2 shutout innings against the Redbirds for his first career victory. Per FanGraphs, Ponce has a four-pitch repertoire but relies primarily on a 93 MPH fastball as well as a cutter he’ll throw 30% of the time.

Anthony DeSclafani (1-2 7.71 ERA) squares off against fellow right-hander Trevor Williams (1-5 5.50 ERA) Saturday night. It’s difficult to put into words how awful Disco has been his last three starts. We’ll let the numbers speak for themselves. He’s 0-3 and has allowed 19 hits and 18 runs in just 10 innings. The only ones doing any dancing have been opponents…around the bases.

Unfortunately, his last five starts against the Pirates offer much hope. Disco is 0-3 with an eye-popping 8.61 ERA. But wait, it gets worse. In his last 23 frames versus Pittsburgh, he’s been torched for 37 hits and seven round-trippers. Reds Country there’s good reason you’re not feeling confident about this game.

The Pirates Trevor Williams has been terrible in his last two starts as well. Tossing 10 innings, he’s been rocked for 16 hits and 11 earned runs. However, he loves facing the Reds. Over his last five starts against the Redlegs, Williams is 3-1 with a 2.40 ERA and he’s owned Eugenio Suárez. The Reds third baseman is hitting just .150 with nine punchouts in 20 career at-bats against Williams.

Reds manager David Bell has yet to name a starter for Sunday’s finale, but the Pirates will send right-hander Chad Kuhl (1-1 3.10 ERA) to close out the series. Kuhl has been solid in his last five appearances versus the Reds.

Throwing 26.2 innings Kuhl has recorded 31 strikeouts while going 1-2 with a 3.71 ERA. Expect Cincinnati Reds legend Joey Votto to have an extra bounce in his step Sunday. Lifetime he’s slashing .538/.588/1.000 in 13 at-bats against the 27-year-old hurler.

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