Reds vs Pirates: Preview, pitching matchups and prediction

The Reds travel to the Steel City for a critical four-game set against the Pirates.

It’s September, and despite more frustrations than triumphs this season, the Cincinnati Reds (16-21) find themselves only two games out of the final playoff spot in the National League. Looking at the schedule for the month, the Redlegs are going to have multiple opportunities to stake their claim to a postseason birth.

Beginning this afternoon, eight of the Reds next 14 games are against the worst team in the NL, this weekend’s host, the Pittsburgh Pirates. In addition, the Reds have three home games remaining with the Milwaukee Brewers who currently sit a half-game in front of the Redlegs in the playoff race. In other words, tonight is the night to begin the final push toward October baseball.

How exactly have the Reds found themselves a disappointing five games under the .500 mark? They’ve certainly earned it. The Reds have been outscored 174-146 this year, putting their Pythagorean record at, you guessed it, 16-21. Unfortunately, all aspects of Cincinnati’s game need improvement this final month.

Entering play this weekend, the Reds are slashing a paltry .215/.316/.408 as a team. Their batting average is 14th in the National League while their on-base percentage and slugging rates are well below league average as well. Even though the season is almost 40 games old, on most nights the Reds field a lineup with at least three players hitting below the Mendoza Line.

The results on the pitching mound have been better, but are still falling short of expectations. For a rotation that features Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo and Trevor Bauer, having a team ERA barely better than league average is a disappointment. If your sleep wasn’t restless enough Reds Country, the club has compiled a 5.02 ERA over the past week and a 5.92 ERA mark the last two weeks.

Even when the numbers are good, they don’t tell the true story. The defense has only been charged with 16 errors this season, which is the second-fewest in the senior circuit. However, anyone who watches this club on a regular basis knows they struggle defensively.

As a team, the 18 double plays that Cincinnati has turned are the fewest in the NL. Additionally, the five passed balls allowed by the Reds backstops are the second-most in the league. So, while flawed, this team is still in the hunt for the postseason and has the personnel to get the job the done.