Reds vs Cardinals: Preview, pitching matchups and prediction

The Reds welcome the Cardinals to Cincinnati for their initial 2020 visit.

Missed opportunities have clearly become the theme of the 2020 season for the Reds. This past weekend the Reds (15-19) hosted the first-place Chicago Cubs with an opportunity to take three of four games in yesterday’s series finale and climb within three games of first place. Unfortunately, the Reds offense produced just one run and another late-inning meltdown from the bullpen put the game completely out of reach.

As the Cardinals series begins, the Reds are just 1.5 games out of a playoff spot which also happens to be the same number the Reds trail St. Louis. Through the first 34 games of the season, inconsistency has plagued the Redlegs throughout the 2020 campaign and it’s hard to be too confident about the team overcoming a relatively small deficit and playing in October. However, through all the frustration there are reasons to believe in this club.

For starters, the Reds have won four of their last six contests scoring six runs in each of those victories. Right-handed starter Tyler Mahle, more on him later, is coming off one of the best starts in his career.

Next, after being benched for three consecutive games due to ineffective play, first baseman Joey Votto looked like his legendary himself the past three games. The 36-year-old leadoff hitter went 4-for-9 with two homers, a double and a walk.

In their first matchup of the season, the Cards took 3-of-4 from the Reds in St. Louis, like they always do. Unfortunately, the Reds have struggled to protect their home field against the Cardinals in recent years as well.  Since 2018 the Cardinals have captured 13 of 20 between the two teams at GABP. The Reds absolutely must not relive this recent history over the next three days.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs Cardinals

Antony DeSclafani. Remember him? Disco (1-1 5.71 ERA) makes his first start in 10 days opposing fellow right-hander Dakota Hudson (0-2 3.32 ERA). DeSclafani recently activated from the paternity list following the birth of a son is looking for a rebirth of his early 2020 season success.

In his past two starts, DeSclafani has allowed 11 runs in only 6.1 innings while also issuing six free passes. His last start came against the Cardinals on August 21st in St. Louis and he was erratic at best.

Tossing 4.1 innings, Disco surrendered two runs on three hits and walked four while only fanning two Redbirds in 4-2 Reds victory. Reds Country is hoping to see the return of the DeSclafani that opened the 2020 campaign with 11 scoreless innings.

I’m not sure how he does it, but Dakota Hudson has a strange voodoo over the Reds. Lifetime he’s undefeated in three decisions with an excellent 3.38 ERA and he appears to be gaining confidence against the Redlegs. In his last two starts, he’s whiffed 14 Reds in just 12.1 innings of work. Reds catcher Tucker Barnhart is just 1-for-9 against Hudson in his career with three punchouts.

For the middle contest of the three-game set, Reds ace Sonny Gray (5-1 1.94 ERA) squares off against Cardinals lefty Kwang Hyun Kim (1-0 1.08 ERA). What more can you say about Sonny Gray? At this point in time, his trade from the Yankees to the Queen City is one of the best deals in the team’s history.

Currently, Gray has an MLB record of 40 consecutive starts of allowing six hits or less and there’s every reason to believe it will be stretched to 41 games. In his last 17.2 innings versus Redbird hitters, he’s allowed just 10 hits and two earned runs while recording 20 strikeouts. Gray is currently tied for the NL league with 55 punchouts and is fourth in ERA.

Southpaw Kwang Hyun Kim has had no issues adjusting to the major leagues. After spending a dozen years in the Koren League, Hyun Kim has been nearly un-hittable in his last two starts. Hurling 12 innings he’s failed to yield an earned while limiting opponents to just six hits. He earned his first MLB victory on August 22nd in a 3-0 Cardinal win over the Reds in St. Louis.

The series finale has Tyler Mahle (1-1 3.91 ERA) battling rookie Johan Oviedo (0-1 3.60) of the Cardinals. Mahle is coming off one of the best starts of his big league career. After surrendering two homers in the opening inning he didn’t allow another hit over 6.2 frames while fanning 11 Cubs in a Reds victory. Over his last 15.2 innings, Mahle has recorded a whopping 22 strikeouts.

However, Mahle did struggle in his earlier start this year against the Cardinals. Lasting just three innings, he allowed three runs on five hits while issuing two free passes and committing a balk as St. Louis handed the Reds a 4-2 defeat. Let’s hope Mahle’s last start was the beginning of a streak of positive outings for the 25-year-old right-hander.

Johan Oviedo will be making his third big league start and his first against the Reds. Tossing 10 innings, he’s allowed six hits while issuing four walks and striking out five. Per FanGraphs Oviedo relies on a fastball and a slider more than 86% of the time. However, he will drop in an occasional curve. With a fastball that averages 95.5 MPH and a curve at 76.9 MPH, he could be a handful if he’s able to locate his pitches.

Cardinals infielder has been a pleasant surprise

Someone forgot to tell Brad Miller that Anheuser-Busch is the dominant force in St. Louis. Playing in his first season for the Cardinals, the eight-year veteran has been a focal point of the 2020 Redbirds offense.

Hitting .329, Miller leads the team with a .477 OBP, .571 slugging mark and a 1.048 OPS in 49 at-bats. Primarily playing third base and taking up the bat as the team’s designated hitter, Miller is making himself a fixture in the Cardinals lineup.

After making his debut as a 23-year-old for the Seattle Mariners, Miller has bounced around the league logging time with five different organizations before signing a free-agent deal with the Cardinals in February. However, it was his 2016 campaign as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays that he firmly established himself as a big leaguer.

The left-handed slugger recorded career highs by blasting 30 home runs and collecting 81 RBIs as the Tampa Bay shortstop. Unfortunately, the good times did not last. Miller hit just .201 the following year with nine round-trippers and began a nomadic baseball life that included brief stops in Milwaukee, Cleveland and Philadelphia.

Nevertheless, the Cardinals have been the recipient of Miller’s resurgence. Based on his track record, it’s impossible to predict what the future holds for him. Rest assured, Cardinals skipper Mike Shildt is going to give Miller every opportunity to play his way out of a position. As strange as the 2020 season is, with only 60 games the Birds on the Bat might be able to ride Miller’s hot streak all the way into October.

Free-agent acquisition could hold the key for Reds fortunes

The 2020 season has been a struggle for virtually everyone on the roster and Mike Moustakas has certainly had his share of adversity to deal with since putting on a Cincinnati Reds uniform. However, as far as first impressions are concerned, Moose could not have made a more positive one to Reds Country.

On Opening Day, Moustakas collected three hits in four trips to the plate including a homer and four RBI in a Reds 7-1 win over the Detroit Tigers. Unfortunately, two days later the Reds second baseman was placed on the IL due to illness. Once he returned, Moose appeared in just four games before being sidelined for two weeks with a quad injury.

As a result, with the calendar turning to September, Moustakas is slashing .246/.353./.368 with just two homers and one double in 67 at-bats. Obviously, this is not the type of production the Reds expect from the three-time All-Star, but there’s reason to believe a big September is in store for him.

First of all, the 10-year veteran has a career .440 slugging mark, and while playing for the Brewers the past two years, Moustakas compiled a .496 rate. His current slugging rate of .368 would be his lowest since a .361 mark in 2014 as a member of the Kansas City Royals.

Next. look for Moose to start putting the ball in play at a higher rate. According to FanGraphs, his current strikeout rate of 26.5% is completely out of character for a guy with a 15.9% career mark. Finally, good things happen when Mike Moustakas put the ball in play, as evidence by his .316 BABIP number this season.

Prediction

When you’re 1.5 games out of a playoff spot, every series is important. But, when you’re playing the team that holds that 1.5 game advantage it obviously takes on greater significance. There’s no point in rehashing the Reds recent history against the Cardinals. All of Reds Country is painfully aware of the results.

If the Cincinnati Reds have any hope of playing into October they must take care of business against the teams directly ahead of them in the standings. Three games at home versus a flawed Cardinals squad should boost the hopes of Reds Country as we move into September with the Redlegs capturing two of three and moving within a half-game of a playoff spot with 23 games remaining.