Reds vs Cubs: Preview, pitching matchups and prediction

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CINCINNATI, OH – JULY 29: Shogo Akiyama #4 of the Cincinnati Reds bats in the fifth inning of the game against the Chicago Cubs. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images). /

The Reds welcome the first-place Cubs for a crucial four-game series.

By the time Reds Country goes to bed Sunday night, they should have a clear indication if the Reds (13-17) are going to be contenders in the National League Central. Cincinnati currently trails the Chicago Cubs by five games in the division and can ill afford to fall any further behind. In other words, this weekend is do or die time for the Redlegs.

If yesterday in Milwaukee is any indication, it appears as though the Reds have some fight they left in them. After sweeping a doubleheader from the Brewers in convincing fashion, the Reds were able to earn a split of the four-game set at Miller Park. However, a split this weekend will not suffice.

Entering play yesterday, the Cincinnati Reds were the worst hitting team in the NL with a .203 average, but the offense sprung to life in both ends of the twin set. Jesse Winker smacked two homers and Nick Castellanos hit a rocket that I’m still not sure has landed.

The Reds also received run-scoring contributions from the likes of Kyle Farmer and Tucker Barnhart to dispose of the Brew Crew. It’s that type of production from the entire lineup that this team has been so desperately seeking through the 2020 season.

As usual, Sonny Gray turned in a typical sparkling performance and Wade Miley had, by far, his best start as a member of the Reds in the nightcap. The lefty tossed four shutout innings. It’s days like yesterday, when the Reds put it all together, that give you hope as the calendar turns to September.

This will be the Cubs final trip to the Queen City this season. In late July, the North Siders took two of three in their initial visit to GABP. Recent history tells us that’s the exception to the rule. The Reds have captured 13 of the 22 contests between the two clubs dating back to the start of the 2018 campaign.

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – AUGUST 23: Yu Darvish #11 of the Chicago Cubs throws a pitch during the third inning of a game. (Photo by Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images) /

Cubbies rotation has been solid to open the season

The Cubs (18-12) enter play today at the midway point of their 2020 schedule and it’s been starting pitching that has propelled the club to the top of the division. The 15 victories from their starters leads the National League. Additionally, their 3.6 fWAR is second only to the Reds rotation mark of 4.3 for top honors on the senior circuit.

That’s been the good news. The Chicago bullpen has provided nothing close to remotely resembling relief. Believe it or not Reds Country, the Cubbies bullpen has been worse than the Reds relief corps by a wide margin. Their 5.79 ERA is the second-worst in the NL while the 19 round-trippers they’ve surrendered is the fourth-highest total in the league.

Former closer Craig Kimbrel has been the poster boy for the Cubs bullpen struggles. Posting an 8.59 ERA, the right-hander has walked nine in 7.1 innings and has given up two homers. To his credit, Kimbrel has been unscored upon in his last five appearances. Since Kimbrel’s removal as the closer, manager David Ross has turned to right-handers Jeremy Jeffress and Rowan Wick to nail down victories.

Despite having a lineup littered with All-Stars, the Cubs offense, like everyone else in the division, has struggled to dent the plate. Beginning play today their .228 average is 12th among all NL clubs. However, Chicago has managed to find a way to reach base. Their .334 on-base percentage is fourth in the NL and the 126 free passes they’ve drawn leads the league.

Once the Cubbies reach base, they go into hibernation on the base paths. Only the Cardinals have swiped fewer than the eight bases the Cubs have stolen and their dozen attempts again only bests the total of the Redbirds. Cincinnati backstops Tucker Barnhart and Curt Casali should have a relatively peaceful weekend behind the plate.

CINCINNATI, OH – AUGUST 4: Tyler Mahle #30 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches against the Cleveland Indians at Great American Ball Park. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images) /

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs Cubs

A myriad of issues has led the Cincinnati Reds to only confirm two starting pitchers for this weekend series. Due to the doubleheader yesterday in Milwaukee and another one scheduled for tomorrow, in addition to Anthony DeSclafani being on paternity leave, manager David Bell and pitching coach Derek Johnson may resort to drawing names out of hats.

Tyler Mahle (0-1 4.41 ERA) toes the rubber in Friday nights opener opposing veteran Kyle Hendricks (3-3 3.55 ERA) of the Cubs. The Reds right-hander will be making his second 2020 appearance versus the North Siders. He tossed four innings allowing two runs in relief of Wade Miley on July 28th.

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Interestingly, it’s been left-handed hitters who have been struggling against the Reds right-hander this season. Mahle has limited lefties to a .152/.275/.212 slash line and has fanned ten of the 40 lefties he’s faced.

Cubs manager David Ross would be doing Jason Heyward a favor by giving him Friday night off. The Cubbies outfielder is 2-for-15 lifetime versus the Cincinnati Reds 25-year-old right-hander.

Kyle Hendricks and the Reds need no introduction. Making 18 starts over his career against the Redlegs, he’s 6-4 with 4.21 ERA. However, Great American Ball Park has been a nightmare for the right-hander. He’s compiled a 6.57 ERA in the Queen City in nine starts and his last two appearances have been especially atrocious.

In his last seven innings at GABP, he’s allowed a staggering 19 hits and 13 runs while giving up four homers. If Joey Votto is going to get right, tonight is a perfect opportunity. The Reds first baseman has produced a remarkable .367/.558/.767 slash line with three home runs versus Hendricks. The 13 free passes Votto has received from Hendricks are by far the most walks he’s issued to an opposing player.

Here’s what we know regarding Saturday’s doubleheader. Trevor Bauer (3-1 1.65 ERA) will be pitching one of the contests and the Cubs Yu Darvish (5-1 1.70 ERA) is going to start one of the games. Will they be facing each other? Who knows, but if they do, it could be a battle for the NL Cy Young Award.

Bauer is looking to bounce back after suffering his first loss of the season Monday in Milwaukee. The right-hander is currently second in strikeouts and ERA, just ahead of Darvish who is third, and leads the NL with a 0.735 WHIP. The success he’s had against right-handed hitters this year is otherworldly.

Righties are slashing a meager .073/.177/.091 when facing Bauer. In 62 plate appearance against right-handed batters, Bauer has allowed just four hits and one extra-base hit. Calling his performance dominant is not a strong enough word.

As great as Trevor Bauer has been, Yu Darvish has been nearly as good. The 34-year-old is sixth on the senior circuit with a 0.919 WHIP and his 44 strikeouts are good enough for eighth. A four-time All-Star, Darvish has been solid in his career at GABP.

Making four starts, he’s 1-1 with 3.86 ERA in the hitter friendly confines. Hurling 23.1 innings, Darvish has allowed only 15 hits and has fanned a whopping 32 Redlegs. Something worth noting is that Jesse Winker is 0-for-8 lifetime against Darvish. Look for that to change over the weekend.

CINCINNATI, OH – JULY 29: Ian Happ #8 of the Chicago Cubs bats during the game against the Cincinnati Reds. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) /

Ian Happ is off to a sizzling start

There’s no place like home; or at least your college home. University of Cincinnati alum Ian Happ is destroying the ball this year. Slashing .287/.422./.564, Happ is tied for the club-lead with six homers and is second with 15 RBIs. The former first-round pick is just beginning to reach his potential.

However, what’s he done against the Reds at GABP is mind-boggling. In 21 games in the Queen City, he’s slashing an amazing .333/.476/.758 with a monstrous 1.234 OPS. The 26-year-old has seven homers and 13 RBIs in just 66 at-bats. If he played all of his games at GABP he would be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Although it’s early in his career, Happ seems destined for a spot on the all-time Reds’ killers list.

It seems likely Reds right-hander Luis Castillo will take the mound at some point this weekend. When he does he’ll have to tread lightly around Happ. The switch-hitter is 5-for-10 versus La Piedra with a homer and two doubles. On the other hand, Tyler Mahle maybe his kryptonite. Happ is hitless in six at-bats against the Reds Friday night starter.

If it’s versatility you like, Ian Happ is your man. In 30 games this season, he’s made appearances in all three outfield positions as well DH and first base. This is nothing new for Happ. During his four year career, he’s made more than 30 appearances at second base and every outfield position. Regardless of where David Ross has penciled in Happ, he’s providing dividends on a daily basis.

GOODYEAR, ARIZONA – FEBRUARY 28: Jose Garcia #83 of the Cincinnati Reds follows through on a swing. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) /

Recent roster moves hope to provide a spark for the Reds.

Things have seemed to have come to a head regarding the Cincinnati Reds roster. Over the last week, relievers Cody Reed and Pedro Strop have been designated for assignment while outfielder Travis Jankowski has been optioned to the taxi squad in Mason, Ohio. Let’s hope these moves are not a case of too little, too late.

Two Reds made their MLB debut over the past week as outfielder Mark Payton and shortstop José García saw their dreams come true. Payton, a 28-year-old left-handed hitter, was acquired for a second time by the Reds in less than a year in a trade with the Oakland A’s. It appears he’ll be seeing regular starts in left field against right-handed pitching during Nick Senzel’s stint on the IL.

However, most of the excitement throughout Reds Country has been reserved for 22-year-old José García. The Reds No. 6 prospect, according to MLB.com, made his major league debut yesterday in Milwaukee. He collected an infield single in his first at-bat and added a stolen base as well as a walk in his debut.

According to manager David Bell, Garcia will be receiving regular playing time at shortstop with Freddy Galvis taking on more of a utility role. Needless to say, there’s much to be excited about with García being in Cincinnati. We can only hope he provides an energy similar to what Aristides Aquino brought to the club last summer.

Prediction

This is without a doubt the Reds biggest series of the year. After finishing a disappointing 13-17 during the first half, the Redlegs must start winning series. It starts tonight versus the Cubbies.

Next. 5 bold predictions for the Reds 2nd half

Yesterday’s dismantling of the Milwaukee Brewers was a harbinger of what’s to come in September. Look for the Cincinnati Reds to take 3-of-4 from the Cubs and climb within striking distance of the division lead.

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