Reds vs Brewers: Preview, pitching matchups and prediction

The reeling Reds visit Milwaukee for the final time during the 2020 season.

Following last year’s disappointing offensive performance, the Cincinnati Reds (11-15) front office was determined to address the issue. Shogo Akiyama, Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas all signed free agent deals in an attempt to bolster the woeful offense. Unfortunately, despite the recognizable names and history of success, an argument can be made the offense is worse than ever.

Entering play Sunday, the Reds were last in the National League with an anemic .210 team batting average. An interesting side note is that the five teams comprising the NL Central occupy the bottom five spots in batting average among all NL clubs. Cincinnati is also below league average in on-base percentage and slugging. How can this be?

What makes the issue so exasperating is that the numbers are horrid through nearly every position in the lineup. The only two spots in the order hitting above .208 entering play yesterday were the No. 5 and No. 9 holes.

Jesse Winker is the man most responsible for the success of the No. 5 spot in the batting order with a sizzling .524 mark in that position, while  Kyle Farmer is hitting a blistering .476 in 23 plate appearances at the tail end of the lineup.

Elsewhere the numbers are simply nausea-inducing. Leadoff hitters are batting .198 with a dreadful .304 OBP mark. Even though he’s only hitting .234 leading off, Akiyama has been head and shoulder above Philip Ervin and Joey Votto who have produced .176 and .167 averages respectively from the leadoff position.

Another black hole for the offense has been the spot traditionally inhabited by a team’s best hitter. With the exception of Castellanos, the No. 3 hole has been an abyss for Reds hitters. Eugenio Suárez, Votto and Winker have hit from the third position in the order 21 times this season and all three are hitting .185 or worse when occupying that spot in the lineup. If the Reds want to entertain serious playoff aspirations, the offense needs to start producing immediately.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs Brewers

I know it’s difficult for Reds Country to feel too comfortable entering any contest, but Monday is the night to walk tall Reds fans. The reason for all this optimism is Trevor Bauer (3-0 0.68 ERA) will be on the hill facing Brett Anderson (1-2 3.71 ERA) of Milwaukee. The record and ERA only begin to tell the story of Bauer’s dominance.

He currently leads the NL in ERA and places seventh with 41 strikeouts. Also, his completely unsustainable ERA+ of 718 is so far beyond his closest competitor Max Fried’s mark of 363. It’s ridiculous! Bauer handily disposed of the Brewers earlier this month, allowing just one run in six innings he fanned a dozen Milwaukee hitters in a Reds 8-3 triumph.

Southpaw Brett Anderson struggled in his start against the Cincinnati Reds earlier this season. Lasting just 3.2 innings, Anderson allowed three runs on four hits while walking two. Anderson has not earned a victory against the Redlegs since 2015 when he was a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Luis Castillo (0-3 4.44 ERA) squares off against Milwaukee’s ace Brandon Woodruff (1-2 3.23 ERA) Tuesday night at Miller Park. The numbers on the surface aren’t pretty for La Piedra. However, if you dig a little deeper, it appears that Castillo is closer to his former dominant self than what the numbers would have us believe.

Despite accumulating a 4.44 ERA Castillo, is third among NL hurlers with a 2.05 FIP trailing only teammate Trevor Bauer and the Mets stopper Jacob deGrom. In addition, his 0.3 HR/9 rate is tied for second in the league while his 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings is good enough for fifth among all NL starters. Lady luck eventually has to shine on Castillo and hopefully, that’s Tuesday night.

Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff has the distinction of starting the only game Sonny Gray has lost this season. However, Woodruff was far from perfect during that August 9th start. Tossing just four innings, he surrendered two runs on three hits including a homer to Jesse Winker in a 9-3 Milwaukee victory.

Speaking of Sonny Gray, (4-1 2.21 ERA) he’ll toe the rubber Wednesday night opposing Brewers right-hander Adrian Houser (1-2 3.72 ERA). Gray has continued his dominating ways throughout the 2020 campaign. He currently ranks in the NL Top 10 in ERA and innings pitched with 36.2, while leading the senior circuit with 51 strikeouts.

His last start against the Brew Crew is probably one he would like to have back. Tossing just 5.1 innings, Gray allowed four runs on six hits and issued three free passes. Look for that start to provide all the motivation Gray needs to exact his revenge.

Houser has faced the Reds five times in his career and twice as a starter. Reds sluggers Joey Votto and Eugenio Suárez have treated the righty poorly. Each is hitting .429 in seven career at-bats while two of Geno’s three hits have cleared the fence for souvenirs. This seems like the perfect opportunity for the Reds offense to get healthy.

For Thursday’s finale, Cincinnati Reds manager David Bell has yet to name a starter while the Brewers will send Josh Lindblom (1-1 6.65 ERA) to the mound. It’s been tough going in 2020 for the 33-year-old Milwaukee starter.

Much of Lindblom’s anguish is being caused by left-handed batters. Lefties are slashing .333/.429/.708 with five homers versus Lindblom. Look for Shogo Akiyama to collect his first MLB round-tripper Thursday night.

Milwaukee closer shows no signs of slowing down

Just imagine for a minute Reds Country, as a team enters the ninth inning with a one-run lead and you can watch the remaining three outs without white-knuckling the arm of your recliner. That’s the luxury Brewers fans experience when closer Josh Hader enters the game. There’s plenty of reasons for Reds fans to be envious.

Since the start of the 2018 season, Hader leads all relievers with a 16.05 K/9 rate and 5.3 fWAR. But wait, there’s more. He also tops the rankings with an 87% LOB rate, BABIP with .216 average and XFIP with a 2.25.  In other words, he’s as dominant a closer as there is in the game.

This season has been no different for the two time All-Star. In seven appearances, Hader’s fanned 12 in 7.1 innings while collecting five saves without allowing a run. That’s getting it done. How has he faired against our beloved Redlegs over his career? About what you would expect.

Appearing in 20 games versus the Reds, Josh Hader has compiled nine saves while striking out an incredible 51 hitters in just 30.2 innings. Unfortunately, the night of April 30, 2018, will always remain a harrowing reminder of Hader’s brilliance for Reds Country.

That evening in Cincinnati, Hader closed out a 6-5 Brewers victory by tossing the final 2.2 innings to persevere the win. And just how did Hader record those final eight outs? By strikeout. Each and every one of them. Of the nine batters he faced, only Reds catcher Tucker Barnhart reached base via a base on balls. It was as dominant a pitching performance as you’ll ever see.

As mentioned earlier, the Milwaukee Brewers bullpen is getting quality outings from Freddy Peralta and Dustin Williams as well. If the Brewers can construct a reliable bridge to Josh Hader, they have the potential of being the best bullpen not only in the NL Central but in the entire league.

Mikey Biceps has turned in a trio of effective outings

No one is going to forget the Michael Lorenzen meltdown in Milwaukee on August 9th anytime soon. In that sixth inning appearance, Lorenzen failed to retire any of the four batters he faced while walking three and allowing one hit. Three of those runners dented the plate to raise his ERA to eye-popping 16.88 mark. It was arguably the worst performance of his career.

Fast forward a couple of weeks and Lorenzen is looking like the once-reliable reliever he’s been the last several seasons for the Reds. In three appearances since the debacle in Milwaukee, Michael Lorenzen has worked seven shutout frames while only allowing four hits. This is what the Reds and their fans had envisioned for the 28-year-old right-hander.

It’s painfully clear that this is the version of Lorenzen that the Cincinnati Reds will need going forward. Outside of Lucas Sims and Amir Garrett, manager David Bell has struggled to find anyone to reliably record outs from the Reds bullpen.

Reds Closer Raisel Iglesias’ appearances remain a constant roller coaster ride while fellow right-hander Nate Jones has been ineffective as well. If the Reds are going to lock down close contest they’ll need the Michael Lorenzen of the past two weeks.

Prediction

The trip to St. Louis continued to go the way of most visits to the Gateway City. In other words, a disaster for the Cincinnati Reds. After dropping 3-of-4 to the Redbirds, Cincinnati is dancing perilously close to the edge of falling out of playoff contention. Even though the calendar has yet to turn to September, the Reds find themselves in a must-win series.

A split will not suffice. Can this Reds team really capture at least three from the Brewers? You betcha. Look for the Reds to take 3-of-4 before returning to GABP for a crucial homestand against the Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates. It’s go time, Reds.