Cincinnati Reds: Ranking the best pitchers for late-game situations

5. Will the real Michael Lorenzen please stand up?

What has happened to Michael Lorenzen in 2020? After a year in which he looked primed to become the Reds best reliever, Lorenzen has been a shadow of himself in the early-going. Lorenzen’s 16.88 ERA is fourth-worst among Cincinnati relievers. Mikey Biceps needs to figure out what’s wrong, and fast.

In seven games, Lorenzen has gone just 5.1 innings, allowed nine hits, 10 earned runs and walked five batters. Lorenzen’s allowed three home runs, the most of any Reds pitcher. Not just relievers, but starters as well. Anthony DeSclafani and Tyler Mahle, two of the Reds starters, have yet to allow a round-tripper.

So, why is Lorenzen even among the relief pitchers to be called upon when the game is on the line? Honestly, this is more about what Lorenzen has done in the past rather than what have you done for me lately. Last season, Lorenzen looked to be Cincinnati’s best option out of the bullpen. He ended 2019 with a 2.92 ERA in 73 relief appearances.

Hopefully Lorenzen will have a few opportunities in the coming days to enter a game without the pressure of being laser-sharp. Perhaps getting some confidence back that his stuff is good enough will increase David Bell’s trust in the right-hander. To begin the season, I’d have ranked Lorenzen No. 1, but right now, he’s barely hanging onto the No. 5 spot.

4. The Reds need Robert Stephenson back.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen was at full-strength for just one game. Right-hander Robert Stephenson pitched less than one inning before landing on the 10-day injured list with a back injury. Stephenson has been sidelined since late-July and the Cincinnati Reds need Stephenson back in the bullpen.

Stephenson was sidelined with a wrist injury before the season even began. One has to question whether or not the former first-round pick was healthy enough to even be on the Opening Day roster. His only outing lasted just three batters, as Stephenson gave up a homer on his first pitch to the Detroit Tigers Austin Romine.

Stephenson’s current ERA of 54.00 is an unfair representation of his performance thus far. Last season was Stephenson’s last chance to make an impact and he did just that. After years of not producing as a starter, Stephenson was moved to the bullpen and the results were night and day. No longer in need of a third pitch, Stephenson relied on a combination of his fastball and slider.

Robert Stephenson also drastically cut down on the number of walks he issued. After claiming that to be part of his game back in 2018, thee right-hander changed his tune and the results were evident. According to FanGraphs, Stephenson’s walk-rate dipped from 19.1% (2018) to 9.2% (2019). The Cincinnati Reds need Stephenson back in the bullpen.

3. Can you Count on AG late in the game?

Sorry gang, I’m not as high on Amir Garrett as other fans may be. While I think Garrett is a reliable left-handed reliever, he’s not who I want taking the ball with the game on the line. That said, against a left-handed heavy lineup, give me Amir Garrett all day long.

For those fans would advocate for Garrett over Nate Jones, take a look at the stats that are eerily similar. Both Garrett and Jones have the exact same number of relief appearances (8), the exact same ERA (3.68), and both have given up two home runs. Each reliever has also racked up 10 strikeouts apiece.

A lot of fans cite Garrett’s fire and passion for reasons he should be the team’s closer. While those are admirable qualities, I’d argue that Michael Lorenzen has very similar traits. The fact is, Garrett’s numbers from the end of last season don’t speak to a player who should get the ball with the game on the line.

After returning from the injured list last season, Garrett was a different pitcher. After owning a 1.70 ERA through his first 42 appearances, Garrett put up a 6.16 ERA over his final 27 contests and opposing batters put up an OPS of .861. Garrett is brilliant against left-handers this season, only allowing and OPS of .143. But right-handers have taken him deep twice and have an OPS of .798.

2. Lucas Sims has been the Reds best reliever thus far.

I almost, almost put Lucas Sims at No. 1. If he continues to pitch like he has during the first few weeks, he’ll quickly earn the trust of David Bell in high-pressure situations. Sims, who was picked in 2018 as part of the trade that send Adam Duvall to the Atlanta Braves, leads the Reds bullpen with a 1.08 ERA.

No one in the Reds pen has thrown more innings (8.1) than Sims, which should give you an idea of how confident Bell and pitching coach Derek Johnson are in the right-hander’s ability. Sims was a former first-round pick for a reason. Once thought to be a possible piece of the Reds rotation, it looks like Sims is carving out a nice niche as a reliever.

Sims (11) trails only Raisel Iglesias (12) in strikeouts among Reds relief pitchers and opponents are only touching him up to the tune of .107. That’ll play all day long. Sims has also shutdown left-handed hitters with a .059 batting average against.

There’s not much to dislike about the type of performance Lucas Sims has had in 2020. Sims xBA of .141 is among the top 6% in the league. A player’s xBA, Expanded Batting Average, is an advanced metric that measures the likelihood of a batted ball becoming a hit. To give you some more insight, the MLB average is .249 and Sims’ teammate Trevor Bauer leads the Reds with an xBA of .115.

1. Give me Raisel Iglesias with the game on the line.

Call me crazy, but with the game on the line, I want Raisel Iglesias on the mound. The Cincinnati Reds closer have proven time and time again that he is the team’s best pitcher when the game hangs in the balance. Well, let me correct myself a bit; so long as the Reds have a lead, I want Raisel Iglesias on the mound.

Iglesias has rebounded after a horrendous 2019 campaign that saw the Reds closer lose 12 games, a club-record for a relief pitcher. David Bell said before the 2019 season that he was going to use Iggy when he needed his best reliever, not just during a save situation. That philosophy didn’t agree with Iglesias, but Bell has already done the same in 2020 with mixed results.

In two save chances this season, Iglesias is 2-for-2. That’ll work. However, that’s not the only occasions we’ve seen Raisel Iglesias this season. Iglesias’ first appearance of the 2020 season saw Iggy replace Amir Garrett in the top of the ninth inning of a 4-4 game versos the Detroit Tigers. Jacoby Jones took Iglesias deep and the Reds lost the game 6-4.

However, Iglesias has racked up two strikeouts in every relief appearance thus far and has yet to allow a single run during the month of August. If this trend continues, there’s no doubt who David Bell will turn to with the game on the line.

While the Cincinnati Reds bullpen is not what fans want to see, it is what it is for the moment. Unless Dick Williams and Nick Krall want to make a trade before the August 31st deadline, the current crop of relievers will likely be who Bell runs out there night after night. The only thing that would change that is if Nick Lodolo or Hunter Greene received a call-up to the big leagues.